Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Do you have a link to that site? Thanks.

Well our local BTR/NO NWS office has seemed to already jump on this. On the home page they have an arrow from the blob of storms in the southern NW part of the Caribbean moving nw into the central to NW part of the gulf. Then have the entire western gulf form the mouth of the mississippi to the TX/Mexico border highlighted showing possible developement late this week into the weekend.

Sorry stormcenter, go to the link micktooth posted click on the tropical wave link above the New Orleans fire map.

[caneman]

Big Dan, I remember it well. Happened right around 9/11. Remember hearing the hurricane Hunters flying off the coast. Probably the only aircraft in the air that day due to storm and 9/11 if memory serves right. Should have been classified as a Cat. 1 Hurricane, instead of 70 mph TS. If memory serves me right, there was lots of evidence to support a later upgrade.

[wxman57]

Agree with NHC on very low chances within 48 hrs (0-5%). Beyond 48 hrs (Fri PM/Sat), maybe 75%. That's just based on model forecasts, though, as there's nothing much to focus on except that blob of moisture in the NW Caribbean. Would be a far greater threat to land than Katia.

With that being said, if this really starts to develop, do you think NHC would go straight to Code Red? Has this ever been done in recent years? I'm sure it has but I can't remember, I know some of you with your vast tropical memories will remember

Any development would not likely be until late Friday or Saturday, so development chances next 48 hrs are near zero until during the day tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

Got it.....thanks!

Do you have a link to that site? Thanks.

Well our local BTR/NO NWS office has seemed to already jump on this. On the home page they have an arrow from the blob of storms in the southern NW part of the Caribbean moving nw into the central to NW part of the gulf. Then have the entire western gulf form the mouth of the mississippi to the TX/Mexico border highlighted showing possible developement late this week into the weekend.

Sorry stormcenter, go to the link micktooth posted click on the tropical wave link above the New Orleans fire map.

[Stormcenter]

Are we looking at a possible significant system or just a windy rain maker. I read in one of the NWS discussions yesterday that this could be a "hybrid" type system if it developed.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Take model Intensity with a grain of Salt IMO. Most are looking at a Humberto like System or TS.


But I say take them with a grain of salt

1) The system hasnt even developed yet

2) I would expect it too be much stronger given the Gulfs conditions

[Tireman4]

Take model Intensity with a grain of Salt IMO. Most are looking at a Humberto like System or TS.


But I say take them with a grain of salt

1) The system hasnt even developed yet

2) I would expect it too be much stronger given the Gulfs conditions

I agree with Wxman57 and he knows his stuff...I would look at Saturday and Sunday for development. Until then, it is just watch and see.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the SE Gulf just off the NW tip of cuba is the tail end of a boundary and looks like a low is trying to develop there. with some ne winds north of it and south and SE winds south of it.,
shear is high right now but that is aiding in development of convection. should decrease over the next couple days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS...108 Hours



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[Ivanhater]

114 hours



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[underthwx]

im wondering what B. Norcross thinks about Katia and the gulf?....does he have a tropical site?

[TexasStorm]

Just yesterday I was hearing that only the NAM was on board with this storm. Did more models climb on board?

[Stormcenter]

I believe they are all on board with some sort of development in the GOM this upcoming weekend.....we shall see.

Just yesterday I was hearing that only the NAM was on board with this storm. Did more models climb on board?

[ConvergenceZone]

So this thread is regarding the Carib wave that's forecasted to move into the Gulf correct? At least according to the below weather channel graphic, that's what the gulf concern is...


http://www.weather.com/weather/hurrican ... 2011-08-30

[KWT]

Another VERY odd run from the GFS, system just about to make landfall and heads due south all the way down Texas and Mexico's coast!

[South Texas Storms]

Another VERY odd run from the GFS, system just about to make landfall and heads due south all the way down Texas and Mexico's coast!

Do you think that has a good chance of verifying KWT? That would be heartbreaking for us Texans.

[Comanche]

Another VERY odd run from the GFS, system just about to make landfall and heads due south all the way down Texas and Mexico's coast!

Would be a drought buster for much of Tejas if that verified. BRING IT!

[ConvergenceZone]

Being that this system is already in the Carib, it doesn't look too half bad....It's going to move very slowly into the Gulf though.

[perk]

Something tells me well find Jim Cantore "somewhere" in Texas late week/weekend..Could become quite a storm if some of the models are right...Possible long duration and time of year are abit concerning for folks along in Texas....

Vortex in an average year folks in Texas would be concerned,but we are so desperate for rain not getting a tropical system would be more of a concern.

[southerngale]

Another VERY odd run from the GFS, system just about to make landfall and heads due south all the way down Texas and Mexico's coast!

It looks to me like it does make landfall in Louisiana, then rides all the way down the Texas coast into the BOC. Very strange looking run.

http://tinyurl.com/4yxmvyo