Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[Nikki]

Another VERY odd run from the GFS, system just about to make landfall and heads due south all the way down Texas and Mexico's coast!

Would be a drought buster for much of Tejas if that verified. BRING IT!

Couldn't have said it better myself! (well as long as it isn't too big, Imma chicken when it comes to hurricanes )

[Portastorm]

FWIW .... JB tweeted late this morning that "Lee to be" will be an "ugly Labor Day forecast headache for the NW Gulf" and that he is alerting his energy clients that it'll be "slow moving" and a "stronger storm."

To his credit, two weeks ago he said the Labor Day period looked like prime development time in the GOM. Pattern recognition stuff, etc.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the attached loop you get the feeling something is about to come together in the GOM in the next few days or so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking at the attached loop you get the feeling something is about to come together in the GOM in the next few days or so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

According to the weather channel, you shouldn't be looking in the Gulf, you should be looking in the Carib. What's in the Carib will be moving into the gulf.

[HurricaneBelle]

Big Dan, I remember it well. Happened right around 9/11. Remember hearing the hurricane Hunters flying off the coast. Probably the only aircraft in the air that day due to storm and 9/11 if memory serves right. Should have been classified as a Cat. 1 Hurricane, instead of 70 mph TS. If memory serves me right, there was lots of evidence to support a later upgrade.

Gabrielle was one weird storm. As it was making landfall near Venice a little south of the Tampa Bay area, its pressure was 980 (which is normally way more than ample evidence of a hurricane), but the Venice obs never got above 50 MPH. Once it moved inland for a couple of hours, it pretty much fell apart and barely had a discernable surface circulation. Later it did briefly become a hurricane over the open Atlantic.

The most remarkable thing about Gabby 2001 was that the next day it brought ridiculously cool air behind it - despite a mid-September sun, the temperature didn't crack 80 and DPs were in the 50s/60s, which almost never happens that early in central Florida.

[Stormcenter]

Well that's why I said "come together" in the GOM in the next few days.

Looking at the attached loop you get the feeling something is about to come together in the GOM in the next few days or so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

According to the weather channel, you shouldn't be looking in the Gulf, you should be looking in the Carib. What's in the Carib will be moving into the gulf.

[Sanibel]

Lingering heavy rains overhead are acting like a homebrew storm here. Raining all morning here (First time all summer).

Really feels like a storm here from the "feel".

[SETXPTNeches]

Something tells me well find Jim Cantore "somewhere" in Texas late week/weekend..Could become quite a storm if some of the models are right...Possible long duration and time of year are abit concerning for folks along in Texas....

Vortex in an average year folks in Texas would be concerned,but we are so desperate for rain not getting a tropical system would be more of a concern.

I agree!

[cycloneye]

10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 630 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ACCOMPANIED
BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[ConvergenceZone]

they seem to emphasize "western gulf of mexico"...Looks like this might be mexico bound.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like although it may originate in the Western Gulf, Mobile. Al, and Tallahassee, Fl are voicing concern that it may actually end up impacting the Northern and Eastern Gulf in the long range Sunday/Monday.

HWO from Tally

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST
AROUND MIDWEEK AND MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK DEPENDS LARGELY ON DEVELOPMENTS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MANY OF THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT AREA. NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED
YET AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS YET TO DISCUSS ANY
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PARTICULARLY IF THEY HAVE
PLANS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL THEN SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

Graphic from Mobile

[BigA]

Canadian bullish on development in the 12Z run



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Sends it west toward Corpus Christi; landfall at about 120 hour period.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS just didn't make much sense. It shows a weakness in the ridge as a very strong trough swings into the Great Lakes and down the eastern Seaboard but bypasses picking up the Storm just into LA. The only thing I can think of is more a backdoor type front and the trough passing through the Great Lakes just isn't amplified enough to keep the weakness opened. Strange run indeed.

[GCANE]

Afternoon thunderstorms seem to be popping earlier than normal over west Cuba.

This could be a good shot in the arm for development overnight.


http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[GCANE]

CAPE is really high - the highest I have seen in the Carib this year.

Havanna currently 4243

GOES sounding at 20N 80W has 5413

[dwsqos2]

The 12Z Euro is very weak, no real genesis through 120; maybe absolutely nothing interesting will occur.

[Portastorm]

The 12Z Euro is very weak, no real genesis through 120; maybe absolutely nothing interesting will occur.

It will be "interesting" to us Texans if it provides rain. The 12z Euro shows a large but relatively disorganized system. Weak in terms of cyclone development but should produce some nice rains across eastern and southern Texas.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[GCANE]

Pretty deep warm core on the 12Z GFS.

I am wondering if dry air will be an issue this close to the coast.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12Z Euro is very weak, no real genesis through 120; maybe absolutely nothing interesting will occur.

It will be "interesting" to us Texans if it provides rain. The 12z Euro shows a large but relatively disorganized system. Weak in terms of cyclone development but should produce some nice rains across eastern and southern Texas.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

That sounds good to me Porta!

[BigB0882]

The Euro may not show much but the Euro hasn't exactly been batting a thousand when it comes to predicting development this year, none of the models have. Even if it never becomes a TC, hopefully tons of moisture will come to TX and parts of LA that need it.