ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SeminoleWind]

Do you guys have a link to the 12z euro models? Ranging from 48-240 or more hours? I know the models are usually pretty accurate.

you can go here for latest runs...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[Jevo]

12z Euro +96 (same weakness in the ridge as the GFS at this time)



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[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL; only model I've seen that shifted to the right from its previous run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Nope, the ECMWF 12Z looks to have shifted right through 120 hours.

The threat to the Leewards seems to be diminishing by the day and a fish track is still very possible with that giant 1000 mile weakness north of the islands that seems like it has been there much of this season (though let's see a few more model runs before claiming that weakness will be there after 168 hours).

I know that folks in the islands will site Irene and Emily in that the models kept shifting but this case is different. We have a well-defined center the models are latching onto and the XTRAP is also lining up with what the models are indicating.

In Irene and Emily's case, the systems were not well-defined and the centers kept reforming farther north (Irene) so the models missed that. Not the case here.

[Jevo]

12Z Euro +120



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[cycloneye]

She is getting stronger.

30/1745 UTC 12.6N 34.3W T3.0/3.0 12L -- Atlantic

For the newbies,here is the intensity chart.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[Extratropical94]

Wow, GFDL is quite intense.
If I'm reading the colours correctly, it says 132-136 knots in the last circle. That would be a borderline 4/5 like Igor!

[meriland23]

I wish euro did not use red text in displaying L MB cause I can not read the minimum mb on Katia in these models.

[SouthFLTropics]

I believe it appears that the EURO has shifted right this time. With that being said I still don't believe that the models have a good handle on the trough vs ridge scenario just yet. I think by Thursday they should be getting a better feel on what the eventual synoptic setup is going to be.

SFT

[CrazyC83]

She is getting stronger.

30/1745 UTC 12.6N 34.3W T3.0/3.0 12L -- Atlantic

For the newbies,here is the intensity chart.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

If supported by other agencies, probably 45-50 kt at next advisory.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

12Z models are out. I have pretty good confidence this will miss the Leewards to the northeast and a comfortable distance, especially since the GFDL and ECMWF have shifted east through 120 hours. Models are in good agreement on a track WNW through 120 hours with all of the good models northeast of the islands. Also, since this is a well-defined storm, I wouldn't expect center relocations that threw the models off with Irene.

Good news for those in the Leewards. Continue to monitor I don't think Katia is going to be your storm.

[Jevo]

I believe it appears that the EURO has shifted right this time. With that being said I still don't believe that the models have a good handle on the trough vs ridge scenario just yet. I think by Thursday they should be getting a better feel on what the eventual synoptic setup is going to be.

SFT

I agree.. We seem to have 2 very different synoptic scenarios with the 2 best peforming models (GFS/Euro)

with that said 12z Euro +144



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[Blown Away]

IMO, pretty good agreement that Katia will recurve between 60-70W, the debate is where is turns between 60-70W.

[Extratropical94]

She is getting stronger.

30/1745 UTC 12.6N 34.3W T3.0/3.0 12L -- Atlantic

For the newbies,here is the intensity chart.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

ADT numbers from both SSD and wisc.edu have now been at 3.3/3.4 for several hours, so 50kt is reasonable.

[painkillerr]

Since Katia is tracking NNW now and is more likely to strengthen to a hurricane around 40-45W versus 50W, does this mean the storm will likely be a fish? Curving out too sea cause it formed too soon and not hit the east coast?

NNW? I don't think so!

[Jevo]

12z Euro +168 (Hello second ridge??)



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[jhpigott]

12z Euro +168 (Hello second ridge??)

Doesn't look like much of an exit there anymore? trapped and heads west from here?

[canes04]

Well it appears the ridges will bridge. If she slows down as forcasted I think the models will shift west in a few days.
I don't think they have a good handle on this system beyond 5 days.

[Jevo]

12Z EURO +192 (well that got interesting)



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[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 12, 2011083018, , BEST, 0, 125N, 346W, 50, 997, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest


Extratropical94,there you go

[Extratropical94]

Oh, you beat me .

Well then, maybe a start of a long RI phase?