ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion
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- meriland23
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looks like it is heading due north almost at 192
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Euro went right quite a bit with a quicker recurve.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
One important thing to note is that it appears both the GFS and the Euro are hinting at a pattern shift here by getting rid of the East Coast trough and replacing it with ridging across the Western Atlantic. I think they have got the what down, the question now is the when. Timing will be everything...
SFT
SFT
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- gatorcane
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Euro went right quite a bit with a quicker recurve.
GFS and Euro in good agreement on a recurve somewhere betweeh 60W and 70W.
I smell something fishy

Remember Bermuda is a tiny little target out there, and easy for storms on a recurve path to miss.
As I mentioned, its the system behind this system that looks to be interesting as it will likely have a chance to get much further west. 12Z GFS long-range hits the Leewards and sends it west after that.
I made a comment in the "Global Model Discussions" thread last week.
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Extratropical94 wrote:Oh, you beat me.
Well then, maybe a start of a long RI phase?
According to the SHIP 18z forecast,the chance of RI is 43%.
Code: Select all
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
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- Jevo
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216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap 

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- SouthFLTropics
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Re:
Jevo wrote:216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap
We're going to the Flemish Cap...Cuz that's where the fish are!!! Billy, you're sailing right into the heart of the monster!!!

Sorry, I couldn't help myself. Had The Perfect Storm flashbacks there!!!
SFT
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- meriland23
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Re:
Jevo wrote:216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap
So this thing is likely not to hit the east coast?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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- meriland23
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Seems the Euro past 200 hours pushes the ridge aside and allows Katia to drive up into the flamish cap. Don't think this one is going to sniff us.
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Re: Re:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Jevo wrote:216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap
We're going to the Flemish Cap...Cuz that's where the fish are!!! Billy, you're sailing right into the heart of the monster!!!![]()
Sorry, I couldn't help myself. Had The Perfect Storm flashbacks there!!!
SFT
Im glad someone picked up on it

@meriland23.... 216 hours is still a long way away and along with others on here I dont believe the globals or dynamics have a good handle on the long term Synoptic.. I agree that Thursday we should know a lot more once the models have had a chance to play with the system a little bit
Last edited by Jevo on Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:
meriland23 wrote:Jevo wrote:216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap
So this thing is likely not to hit the east coast?
Hi meriland23, why not tell us where you are in your profile?

The current models appear to be recurving the system but it's a long way out from now. Your very best source is official products from the NHC.
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Re:
meriland23 wrote:Seems the Euro past 200 hours pushes the ridge aside and allows Katia to drive up into the flamish cap. Don't think this one is going to sniff us.
the EURO is not even that good past 200hr....better than the GFS but not that much better....
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This should be a gorgeous, classic Cape Verde storm. Given how rapidly she's strengthening and the rather spectacular satellite presentation, I'm thinking 100kt at 5 days is pretty conservative.
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- CourierPR
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I post this for the benefit of those who already seem to be sounding the "all clear" for the Leeward Islands. Joe Bastardi tweets that he believes the GFS is too far east with its track.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CourierPR wrote:I post this for the benefit of those who already seem to be sounding the "all clear" for the Leeward Islands. Joe Bastardi tweets that he believes the GFS is too far east with its track.
Of course he does...Gotta keep the people watching!!!

SFT
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- Jevo
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wooo look at the ridge she leaves behind though.. The GFS had the same thing in 10 days

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