ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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meriland23
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#741 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:52 pm

looks like it is heading due north almost at 192
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#742 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:52 pm

Euro went right quite a bit with a quicker recurve.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#743 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:53 pm

One important thing to note is that it appears both the GFS and the Euro are hinting at a pattern shift here by getting rid of the East Coast trough and replacing it with ridging across the Western Atlantic. I think they have got the what down, the question now is the when. Timing will be everything...

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Re:

#744 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:54 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Euro went right quite a bit with a quicker recurve.


GFS and Euro in good agreement on a recurve somewhere betweeh 60W and 70W.

I smell something fishy :). All kidding aside just want to see a few more runs of the GFS/ECMWF to be more certain.

Remember Bermuda is a tiny little target out there, and easy for storms on a recurve path to miss.

As I mentioned, its the system behind this system that looks to be interesting as it will likely have a chance to get much further west. 12Z GFS long-range hits the Leewards and sends it west after that.

I made a comment in the "Global Model Discussions" thread last week.
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Re:

#745 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:57 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Oh, you beat me ;).

Well then, maybe a start of a long RI phase?


According to the SHIP 18z forecast,the chance of RI is 43%.

Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    43% is   3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    26% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    18% is   3.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    10% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
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#746 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:58 pm

21 pages and it is barely past Cape Verde's longitude. Could be another long thread...
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#747 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:58 pm

216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap ;)
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Re:

#748 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:01 pm

Jevo wrote:216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap ;)


We're going to the Flemish Cap...Cuz that's where the fish are!!! Billy, you're sailing right into the heart of the monster!!! :roflmao:

Sorry, I couldn't help myself. Had The Perfect Storm flashbacks there!!!

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Re:

#749 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:03 pm

Jevo wrote:216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap ;)

So this thing is likely not to hit the east coast?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#750 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:03 pm

Latest Visible

Image
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#751 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:05 pm

Seems the Euro past 200 hours pushes the ridge aside and allows Katia to drive up into the flamish cap. Don't think this one is going to sniff us.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#752 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:06 pm

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Re: Re:

#753 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:06 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Jevo wrote:216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap ;)


We're going to the Flemish Cap...Cuz that's where the fish are!!! Billy, you're sailing right into the heart of the monster!!! :roflmao:

Sorry, I couldn't help myself. Had The Perfect Storm flashbacks there!!!

SFT


Im glad someone picked up on it ;)

@meriland23.... 216 hours is still a long way away and along with others on here I dont believe the globals or dynamics have a good handle on the long term Synoptic.. I agree that Thursday we should know a lot more once the models have had a chance to play with the system a little bit
Last edited by Jevo on Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#754 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:06 pm

meriland23 wrote:
Jevo wrote:216+ Moves the ridge out and Katia punches up to the Flemish Cap ;)

So this thing is likely not to hit the east coast?


Hi meriland23, why not tell us where you are in your profile? :)

The current models appear to be recurving the system but it's a long way out from now. Your very best source is official products from the NHC.

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Re:

#755 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:07 pm

meriland23 wrote:Seems the Euro past 200 hours pushes the ridge aside and allows Katia to drive up into the flamish cap. Don't think this one is going to sniff us.


the EURO is not even that good past 200hr....better than the GFS but not that much better....
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#756 Postby Cranica » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:07 pm

This should be a gorgeous, classic Cape Verde storm. Given how rapidly she's strengthening and the rather spectacular satellite presentation, I'm thinking 100kt at 5 days is pretty conservative.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#757 Postby CourierPR » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:08 pm

I post this for the benefit of those who already seem to be sounding the "all clear" for the Leeward Islands. Joe Bastardi tweets that he believes the GFS is too far east with its track.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#758 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:09 pm

CourierPR wrote:I post this for the benefit of those who already seem to be sounding the "all clear" for the Leeward Islands. Joe Bastardi tweets that he believes the GFS is too far east with its track.


Of course he does...Gotta keep the people watching!!! :wink:

SFT
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#759 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:10 pm

At this rate could Katia be a hurricane tonight? Major hurricane before 45W?
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#760 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:10 pm

wooo look at the ridge she leaves behind though.. The GFS had the same thing in 10 days

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