ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Looking at the current MIMIC-TPW loop

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Looks to be winding up very quickly.

Archive of all loops can be found ...

recent: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /anim/?M=D
older: ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/pub/mimic_tpw/animations/natl/

[actionslax]

Just lurking. Planning a trip to PR this friday for Labor Day weekend. Think I am going, He*& or "high water".
Been learning alot from you guys and gals. Thanks

[KWT]

Well at the very least we do have good agreement now of a possible risk down the line to Bermuda, still too long away to really be too sure of this yet though.

[SouthFLTropics]

Seems the Euro past 200 hours pushes the ridge aside and allows Katia to drive up into the flamish cap. Don't think this one is going to sniff us.

the EURO is not even that good past 200hr....better than the GFS but not that much better....

WOW Rock...I think that is the first time I've ever seen you post something that is even REMOTELY negative about KING EURO!!! Blasphemy!!!

[meriland23]

Dont know, I guess it would be a good idea to gander at past projected path predictions on hurricanes/TS this far out and see how much faith we can put in the latest euro model. If I remember correctly, Irene was originally supposed to smack into Florida.

[KWT]

21 pages and it is barely past Cape Verde's longitude. Could be another long thread...

Given its not going to be a US threat, i think chances are this will not even be half as long as Irene...its been quick off the mark but they always are at this time of year, they normally slow down once there is good model agreement of a recurve.

50kts looks reasonable, I think its quite clearly wrapping up right now, a hurricane by tomorrow morning is probable if this rate continues.

[Blown Away]

Saved Image.

Interesting the 18z NHC hugging TVCN shows a WSW dip at the end, is it a pattern change or a hiccup in the model program?

[WYNweather]

A read regarding the models from a CNN interview with NHC.


How Irene's forecast missed the mark and why it could happen again
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/30/ho ... pen-again/

[KWT]

Pattern generally agreed upon there, its just exactly when that turn happens that isn't totally decided by the models.

What I will say is the ECM looks like its not doing a good job on its 12z run when it comes to strength, already looks like its busting too low...

[CrazyC83]

21 pages and it is barely past Cape Verde's longitude. Could be another long thread...

Given its not going to be a US threat, i think chances are this will not even be half as long as Irene...its been quick off the mark but they always are at this time of year, they normally slow down once there is good model agreement of a recurve.

50kts looks reasonable, I think its quite clearly wrapping up right now, a hurricane by tomorrow morning is probable if this rate continues.

It probably also has to do with the fact Irene is still fresh in our minds and we are still all recovering.

[CrazyC83]

A read regarding the models from a CNN interview with NHC.


How Irene's forecast missed the mark and why it could happen again
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/30/ho ... pen-again/

Most times either young storms or storms coming back from near dead are the ones that rapidly intensify. It is quite rare to do so after 2 or more ERCs.

[CrazyC83]

Quite simply, anyone from Central America to Newfoundland should be watching this. Models are in no consensus.

[CourierPR]

21 pages and it is barely past Cape Verde's longitude. Could be another long thread...

Given its not going to be a US threat, i think chances are this will not even be half as long as Irene...its been quick off the mark but they always are at this time of year, they normally slow down once there is good model agreement of a recurve.

50kts looks reasonable, I think its quite clearly wrapping up right now, a hurricane by tomorrow morning is probable if this rate continues.

KWT, you sure do love to make those bold statements. At this point it could be a threat to anybody.

[SouthFloridawx]

A read regarding the models from a CNN interview with NHC.


How Irene's forecast missed the mark and why it could happen again
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/30/ho ... pen-again/

Though if it was a Category Three while making landfall, there would be no criticism here at all. It's better to be prepared for the worst, than not being prepared enough. What about cases where it was stronger than expected? It's not up to the NHC to make sure people are prepared, it's up to the people to make sure they are prepared. They NHC isn't going to be going around giving out water... It is to make sure people know that is a possible threat in the future. Even private weather companies are going to make percentage forecasts. Things occur in nature that we do not foresee.

[cycloneye]

21 pages and it is barely past Cape Verde's longitude. Could be another long thread...

Given its not going to be a US threat, i think chances are this will not even be half as long as Irene...its been quick off the mark but they always are at this time of year, they normally slow down once there is good model agreement of a recurve.

50kts looks reasonable, I think its quite clearly wrapping up right now, a hurricane by tomorrow morning is probable if this rate continues.

It probably also has to do with the fact Irene is still fresh in our minds and we are still all recovering.

Yes,a hurricane threatening and making landfall in the CONUS guarantees what we saw with Irene (377 pages) In this case, I expect less than Irene's thread,unless there are surprises in the track.

[meriland23]

Anyone have a model of the current projected path over top a looped satelite image of Katia to get a good idea whether it is heading more south or north of the PP?

[CrazyC83]

21 pages and it is barely past Cape Verde's longitude. Could be another long thread...

Given its not going to be a US threat, i think chances are this will not even be half as long as Irene...its been quick off the mark but they always are at this time of year, they normally slow down once there is good model agreement of a recurve.

50kts looks reasonable, I think its quite clearly wrapping up right now, a hurricane by tomorrow morning is probable if this rate continues.

KWT, you sure do love to make those bold statements. At this point it could be a threat to anybody.

Agreed. Everyone from Central America to Newfoundland is in play.

[KWT]

KWT, you sure do love to make those bold statements. At this point it could be a threat to anybody.

Ha I sure do,to be fair your right:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'd say probably a 95% chance of recurve, probably more of a 50-50 when it comes to Bermuda and probably a risk to NS and NF but a little early perhaps on that front.

The only area in the states I'd be a little wary would be the NE states...history though is on my side when it comes to storms in this area

I think someone said the other day 83% of storms from this position recurve...so its not bold, just logical given the fact we've had a solid upper trough in situ for 2 years now it seems AND more often then not they do recurve AND the models agree...

[SootyTern]

Anyone have a model of the current projected path over top a looped satelite image of Katia to get a good idea whether it is heading more south or north of the PP?

Is this what you're looking for? Click 'trop pts' box in upper right corner for NHC forecast points. And welcome to the world of wobble-watching!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[clfenwi]

Interesting the 18z NHC hugging TVCN shows a WSW dip at the end, is it a pattern change or a hiccup in the model program?

Perhaps something flukish in how the consensus was calculated, but it's not an error in plotting by that particular site. TVCN did go south at the end:

AL, 12, 2011083018, 03, TVCN, 132, 223N, 617W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2011083018, 03, TVCN, 144, 218N, 624W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,