ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Jevo]

Anyone have a model of the current projected path over top a looped satelite image of Katia to get a good idea whether it is heading more south or north of the PP?

Is this what you're looking for? Click 'trop pts' box in upper right corner for NHC forecast points. And welcome to the world of wobble-watching!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

The Wundermap over at weather underground is also fun to goof around with... Options are on the right... click on satellite.. change frame #s and animate

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... &ft=0&sl=0



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[HurricaneWarning92]

Saved Image.

Interesting the 18z NHC hugging TVCN shows a WSW dip at the end, is it a pattern change or a hiccup in the model program?

One of the GFS ensembles take it westward toward Florida/GOM...

[mascpa]

Just lurking. Planning a trip to PR this friday for Labor Day weekend. Think I am going, He*& or "high water".
Been learning alot from you guys and gals. Thanks

WELCOME to Storm2K!!

[HurricaneBelle]

One of the GFS ensembles take it westward toward Florida/GOM...

Plus, that darn XTRP hits us almost every time!

(yes, I know it isn't a model)

[stewart715]

I'm having trouble relying on late cycle GFS, especially when it comes to pressure and strength. I think this is going to surprise people with a dangerously western track.

[Aric Dunn]

If current trends continue she will likely become a hurricane tomorrow sometime.

[jhpigott]

I'm having trouble relying on late cycle GFS, especially when it comes to pressure and strength. I think this is going to surprise people with a dangerously western track.

Stacy - is that you???


disclaimer: that was a really bad tropical weather joke . . . unless that really is you Mr. Stacy Stewart

[tolakram]

I'm having trouble relying on late cycle GFS, especially when it comes to pressure and strength. I think this is going to surprise people with a dangerously western track.

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[meriland23]

looks as though it is on a slight southern track versus the projection. Then again that could be a wodbble.

[CourierPR]

If current trends continue she will likely become a hurricane tomorrow sometime.

Aric, what is your take on the future track?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Its too early. Models all had Irene completely recurving and missing everything before the Western Antilles. I dont trust them this far out.


Ill wait to make a call until Friday. We will know then. I am more concerned over the BOC consensus.

[Nimbus]

They are just playing with odds this far out. one model aimed at Florida, Another model aimed at North Carolina and a Third aimed at Southern New England. That is similar to saying there is a 5 percent chance of a Florida landfall but a 15% chance of a landfall somewhere along the East coast at this point.

Now come back when Katia passes through the Caribbean Hebert box and see what is going on with the ridge forecast at that time and we might have an interesting tracking problem to analyze.

[charlesw]

we have an eyewall developing

[AHS2011]

Hard to think that Katia was just a tropical depression this morning. Hurricane by 8 P.M. tonight is my prediction

[meriland23]

question, if a hurricane forms from this sooner than expected, does that indicate

A: curve much sooner, more likely to fish or push further east in due time.

B: Strength dissipation is likely more sooner.

[BigA]

question, if a hurricane forms from this sooner than expected, does that indicate

A: curve much sooner, more likely to fish or push further east in due time.

B: Strength dissipation is likely more sooner.

It depends on the steering flow. But the by-and large rule, with many exceptions, is that a stronger storm tends to go poleward (recurve more rapidly). But a storm getting strong quickly does not mean it is using up its energy and will weaken earlier than normal later.

Also center looks about 12.4N 34.9W per that image.

[AHS2011]

Does anyone know what the current dvorak number for Katia is?

[Shuriken]

This should be a gorgeous, classic Cape Verde storm. Given how rapidly she's strengthening and the rather spectacular satellite presentation, I'm thinking 100kt at 5 days is pretty conservative.

Yep. ...it'll be interesting to see if an Isabel track produces another Isabel storm:

[KWT]

Sure does look like its on its way today to becoming a hurricane, wrapping up into a classic looking system already.

Expecting a hurricane tomorrow.

[SouthFloridawx]