Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[fwbbreeze]

interesting CMC run at 144 hours. Shows the currently discussed low inland over texas/mexico and something trying to spin up over the west coast of Florida.




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

[ROCK]

the CMC was very aggressive....in the med term...right now the feature I am watching is where the greatest voracity is located....right under the channel....

[Stormcenter]

NWS New Orleans 8/30/11 afternoon discussion:

THE NEXT THING IN THE OFFING IS POSSIBLY EXTRA OR ACTUALLY
TROPICAL IN NATURE. DOES NOT MATTER TOO MUCH WHICH CATEGORY WE
GIVE IT SINCE WIND SPEED IS WIND SPEED REGARDLESS. WE WILL BEGIN
TO SHOW AN UPWARD BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL COLLIDE WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
THIS WILL ACTIVATE THE FRONT TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY OVER THE MID-WEST THEN LIFTS LEAVING THE GULF
LOW BEHIND AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER IT. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE LOW TO DRIFT AS STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. THE MAJOR
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IS WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL...COASTAL
FLOODING...AND TROPICAL WATERSPOUTS/TORNADIC SPINUPS.

[ROCK]

Aric,
looking at the SE GOM right around the tip of Cuba...looks like some low level convergence going on....you seeing this?

[Rgv20]

FWIW the 12zJMA has a TC making landfall south of Brownsville (25N) on Tuesday September 6....Very interesting days ahead..

[SEASON_CANCELED]

There is a slight swirl off the coast of Florida in that old front boundary

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That dry air to the north really is going be kingmaker

[BigB0882]

What is a kingmaker?

[tailgater]

From the buoy in the BOC


It also showing NW winds but that could be T-storm induced, notice the barometer went from 29.77 to 29.83 and now at 29.76 a little strange.

[underthwx]

What is a kingmaker?

a maker of kingcakes?

[jabman98]

I'm in Houston. I have Wunderground open on my computer. Yesterday it had chances of rain for Houston at 50% for the weekend. Today they've dropped to 40%. The rain chance is from this tropical moisture. Are they saying it's going to move elsewhere in Texas or east?

[txwxpirate]

Hi - from Galveston Bay..all eyes on the GOM (with mounting excitement) The Houston NWS looks to be in "waiting mode" to see what develops.
I remember Humberto and how quickly he popped up...I'm sure
those in High Island remember too.
If this does develop, I hope everyone is paying attention over the holiday weekend. But, I'm sure rain will catch all of our attention - we're so desperate, and crossing our fingers.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

i know alot of a systems strength has to do with upper level winds and shear, but a storm stalled in the Gulf of mexico makes me very uncomfortable. Anybody want to compare this scenario to Alicia possibly? Wasnt she stalled out in the middle of the GOM for a bit?

[Portastorm]

i know alot of a systems strength has to do with upper level winds and shear, but a storm stalled in the Gulf of mexico makes me very uncomfortable. Anybody want to compare this scenario to Alicia possibly? Wasnt she stalled out in the middle of the GOM for a bit?

Wxman57 and Jeff Lindner, two pro mets who are on Storm2K, have both compared this developing system to possibly a Frances (1998) like storm.

[djmikey]

So why did NWS all the sudden drop percentages for rain along the coast? Are they now questioning if TX will get much rain? Just curious...

[jabman98]

i know alot of a systems strength has to do with upper level winds and shear, but a storm stalled in the Gulf of mexico makes me very uncomfortable. Anybody want to compare this scenario to Alicia possibly? Wasnt she stalled out in the middle of the GOM for a bit?

All this talk of a rainmaking TS stalled out over the TX coast definitely got me thinking of Alicia. Of course that was in early June, so the Gulf wasn't as warm and there were probably other very different meteorologic factors.

We really need the rain. I hope it's a rainmaker but not a horrific flooding situation.

[Portastorm]

So why did NWS all the sudden drop percentages for rain along the coast? Are they now questioning if TX will get much rain? Just curious...

The POPs dropping some are more a reflection of the uncertainty NWS offices have over HOW this whole thing may develop. Initially it looked like a large, soupy tropical wave would move onshore into Texas. Now that scenario is being questioned as there is considerable divergent model solutions.

[Tireman4]

i know alot of a systems strength has to do with upper level winds and shear, but a storm stalled in the Gulf of mexico makes me very uncomfortable. Anybody want to compare this scenario to Alicia possibly? Wasnt she stalled out in the middle of the GOM for a bit?

All this talk of a rainmaking TS stalled out over the TX coast definitely got me thinking of Alicia. Of course that was in early June, so the Gulf wasn't as warm and there were probably other very different meteorologic factors.

We really need the rain. I hope it's a rainmaker but not a horrific flooding situation.

Allison was in June and Alicia was in August

[stormhunter7]

Looks like TAFB is taking this towards TX in 72hrs ish

[jabman98]

i know alot of a systems strength has to do with upper level winds and shear, but a storm stalled in the Gulf of mexico makes me very uncomfortable. Anybody want to compare this scenario to Alicia possibly? Wasnt she stalled out in the middle of the GOM for a bit?

All this talk of a rainmaking TS stalled out over the TX coast definitely got me thinking of Alicia. Of course that was in early June, so the Gulf wasn't as warm and there were probably other very different meteorologic factors.

We really need the rain. I hope it's a rainmaker but not a horrific flooding situation.

Allison was in June and Alicia was in August

GAH! Sorry. I was thinking of Allison. Was here for Alicia too, but was mixing them up.