Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[Tireman4]

Allison was in June and Alicia was in August

GAH! Sorry. I was thinking of Allison. Was here for Alicia too, but was mixing them up.

No worries...

[jabman98]

Allison was in June and Alicia was in August

GAH! Sorry. I was thinking of Allison. Was here for Alicia too, but was mixing them up.

[

The stalled TS scenario reminded me of Allison. But the time of year and Gulf spin-up is reminiscent of Alicia. We really don't need another Alicia.

[underthwx]

would I be correct in assuming....with the models diverging...and what is obviously a very complex weather event to predict...the NHC by this time tommorrow will have a significantly better assessment of what we can expect?

[Aric Dunn]

From the looks of things this afternoon the flow is still SW to NE over florida the developing LOW is moving north out the NW carrib and coming together with the area in the SE gulf.. I think we may see the early stages of development there before the ridging pushes everything towards the texas coast.

[txwxpirate]

underthewx- its a wait and see situation - NWS doesn't want to jump anything until the models get a better handle on it and yes I'm sure the NHC is also on top of it. Just a good time to go over hurricane plans and preparation.

[bamajammer4eva]

would I be correct in assuming....with the models diverging...and what is obviously a very complex weather event to predict...the NHC by this time tommorrow will have a significantly better assessment of what we can expect?

Probably so. Latest from Mobile, AL expects Gale force winds in their area http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

FOR THE MARINE FORECAST...THIS MEANS SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WORKING
THEIR WAY TO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY...AND GALES BY FREQUENT GUSTS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGINNING TO EAST MONDAY. FOR
SMALL BOATS AND AREA BEACHES...VERY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND HOLIDAY. WITH THE GUIDANCE ALL SPREAD OUT...HAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND THIS FAR
OUT.

Lower Alabama forecast for Sun-Tues http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=31.350118618997662&lon=-85.7373046875&site=tae&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Labor Day: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89.

[underthwx]

.DISCUSSION...Houston Area Afternoon
TEMPS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS TODAY AS THEY WERE YDAY AT THIS TIME AND
EXPECT TO SHAVE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OFF TOMORROW WITH SE FLOW IN
PLACE. HEAT INDEX GRIDS SHOW PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 104 ON WED SO
PLAN ON LETTING THE HEAT ADVSY EXPIRE THIS EVENING. EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SHIFT STILL HAS THE OPTION TO EXTEND IT IF NEW DATA COMES IN SHOWING
OTHERWISE.

TROFINESS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN STILL FCST TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND INTO THE W/NW GULF IN THE COMING DAYS. MODELS ALL STILL
POINTING TOWARD VARYING TYPES OF DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE UPPER TX/WRN LA COAST TOWARD EARLY FRI.
FROM THERE...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD OF SOLNS/TRACKS RANGING FROM CNTL LA ALL THE WAY TO S TX.
THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS NOTHING HAS FORMED YET AND UNTIL IF/WHEN
SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...MODELS WILL LIKELY SHOW DRASTIC RUN-TO-RUN
GUESSES (BOTH STRENGTH AND POSITION).

SINCE WE DO NEED TO PUT OUT SOME SORT OF FORECAST...WE CURRENTLY
ARE GOING TO PUT THE HEAVIER WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT AS
IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT (POSITIONING-WISE), MAKES THE MOST
SENSE, AND IS GENERALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES. IT HAS
BEEN MORE-OR-LESS MEANDERING A CIRCULATION AROUND THE SAME GENERAL
AREA OFFSHORE THRU THE WEEKEND, THEN EVENTUALLY TAKES IT SW EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW (& MAYBE A
WEAK COOL FRONT?).

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST? THAT IT`S QUITE UNCERTAIN.
ASSUMING THE ABOVE SCENARIO VERIFIES IT WOULD MEAN HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF I-10 AND LESS/IF ANY PRECIP WELL
INLAND. ALSO MEANS WILL NEED TO BE ON THE *LOOKOUT* FOR A
PROLONGED COASTAL FLOOD EVENT (A LA TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS 1998
SCENARIO) WITH PROLONGED FETCH OF E/NE WINDS & ELEVATED SEAS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

REALIZE FOLKS HAVE PLANS FOR THE UPCOMING LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST IS BOUND TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS. WOULDN`T
NECESSARILY CANCEL ANY PLANS JUST YET...BUT WOULD DEFINITELY KEEP
UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

THX FOR COORDINATION TX/LA COASTAL OFFICES. 47

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN LIKELY TIGHTEN AS
THE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
GULF. EVEN THOUGH THE LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...THE MORE RELIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 40



Houston AFD...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

What is a kingmaker?

Its an expression around these parts. Meaning a factor that decides whats going to happen.

Example,

Bob wants that Promotion, Buts its all up too his boss,Steve. He is the kingmaker. One bad word in the board meeting would kill bobs chances


In this case. If that dry air interferes too much and heads south, nothing significant will develop.

[txwxpirate]

Oh thanks underthwx I was just gonna post it! Glad the Houston NWS came thru and they mention Francis!

[Sambucol]

When will this become an invest?

[dmbthestone]

When do you guys expect this thing to ramp up and hit invest status?

[HurricaneBrain]

When do you guys expect this thing to ramp up and hit invest status?

Perhaps sometime tonight. If not, very soon.

[HurricaneBrain]

Beaumont, TX Area Discussion:
TOMORROW WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW CHANGE FROM THE DRY HEAT TO
CLOUDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY AND SOMEWHAT LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS WE WILL HAVE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF AND FINALLY INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR THIS REGION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FINALLY DEVELOP AND RAINS WILL FALL OVER SE TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A FRONT DRIVES THE MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE GULF. THE RAINS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS
BACK TOWARDS 30 YEAR CLIMO RANGE.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like this thing is going to pop out of nowhere starting tomorrow.. and thursday.

[HurricaneBrain]

Looks like this thing is going to pop out of nowhere starting tomorrow.. and thursday.

Looking good in that green Aric! Yes, should definitely be getting its act together soon with the favorable conditions in the Western Gulf.

[txwxpirate]

Humberto Jr.

I think if Houston doesn't get any rain,
you will hear the collective sound of broken hearts
all over.

[Snow Deprived365]

Its Labor Day weekend coming up and I'm REALLY looking forward to seeing rain in Houston. Some extreme weather would be very welcome here too, but Ill take what I can get!

[jabman98]

Humberto Jr.

I think if Houston doesn't get any rain,
you will hear the collective sound of broken hearts
all over.

Oh, so true. Every single person I've spoken with today has been practically jumping up and down with excitement about rain. "Do you know what's happening this weekend?!!" "Did you hear!" If we don't get any rain the disappointment is going to be palpable.

However, a tropical system on our doorstep over a holiday weekend is probably not quite what everyone was hoping for.

[jpigott]

Looks like this thing is going to pop out of nowhere starting tomorrow.. and thursday.

Aric - Possible that this spins up sooner than expected (more near the western tip of Cuba and SE Gulf off the west coast of Florida and gets pulled NEward with the trough that is still hanging over the area?

[PauleinHouston]

Looks like this thing is going to pop out of nowhere starting tomorrow.. and thursday.

Looking good in that green Aric! Yes, should definitely be getting its act together soon with the favorable conditions in the Western Gulf.

Most recent TWD indicates a newly formed T/Wave and a possible second feature in Wstrn Carib developing. Looks like those are the future development "prospects". It appeared as though there was some low level circ at the tail end of that trough hanging SW from Florida earlier, but that appears to have fizzled/weakened along with the trough axis. I do remember a few days ago a few models showed 2 separate features in the GOM at the same time (one central and other in/around BOC) ...For sure, things are cooking down there!