Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[jasons2k]

I keep seeing the name "Humberto" tossed around and there is no comparison to Humberto.

It's a completely different type of system. This system resembles a monsoonal low that we see in the W PAC. It's very large and it will probably be slow to develop. Once it does and heads this way, it will have to contend with all the dry air we still have around Texas, at least in the early stages. If it meanders around for a few days all bets are off but then you have an issue with the OHC being used-up.

Let's hope it's a Frances-like ('98) rainmaker and the inhibiting factors keep it in check. So far, I think Frances is a better analogue than Humberto.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like this thing is going to pop out of nowhere starting tomorrow.. and thursday.

Aric - Possible that this spins up sooner than expected (more near the western tip of Cuba and SE Gulf off the west coast of Florida and gets pulled NEward with the trough that is still hanging over the area?

Yeah Im thinking it will be further along tomorrow and thursday than is currently forecast.

[mpic]

Don't need anything extreme if it means wind. The trees are very dry with this drought and dropping some pretty heavy limbs already. JMO

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS is different from the 12z run so far. GFS is so inconsistent. Euro is handling this better so far imo. At least with the initial vorticity.

[txwxpirate]

jasons - my initial mention of Humberto was in the sense that it crept up on us and we were really taken off guard ....

Yes I agree with the Francis comparison.

[wxman57]

Look to the southwest and western Gulf for development, not the southeast Gulf.

[South Texas Storms]

Look to the southwest and western Gulf for development, not the southeast Gulf.

Wxman, do you think the southern half of TX will get some good rain amounts from this?

[jabman98]

Look to the southwest and western Gulf for development, not the southeast Gulf.

Do you think we'll be lucky enough to see any of the rain here in Houston? You must be hoping for it as much as the rest of us.

[PauleinHouston]

Look to the southwest and western Gulf for development, not the southeast Gulf.

Are you suggesting that a new feature will form in that area or that the existing wave may move to and develop in that area?

[gboudx]

From jeff.

Forecasting nightmare heading into the holiday weekend with the threat for a slow moving tropical system to develop and then meander over the NW Gulf of Mexico.

Models are absolutely all over the place this afternoon with respect to the possible formation of a western/northwestern Gulf of Mexico surface low at some point in the Friday-Sunday period. NHC has now placed a 10% chance of development with the tropical wave over the western Caribbean in the next 48 hours, but it is the period from Friday-Sunday where development chances seem to be closer to 70-80%. Confidence is fairly high that something will develop, but where it forms, where it goes, and how strong are some very tough questions right now given some major spread in the guidance and handling of the steering patterns.

The general consensus is that a broad surface low will develop over the central/NW Gulf some time Friday and Saturday and the afternoon coordination call with TX/LA WFO’s/NHC/HPC agreed to place a closed low in the Gulf around 350 miles S of the mouth of the Sabine River. From that point, models try and drift the system NW on Saturday and Sunday toward the middle/upper TX coast, but then the weak steering appears to collapse and the system is left to stall/meander over the coastal waters somewhere S or SSW of Galveston to Matagorda Bay. Upper ridge over the SW US then begins to built north of the system forcing a slow SW to SSW drift toward the Corpus/Brownsville area late this weekend or early next week. This is the overall agreed solution by NHC/HPC and is reflected in their afternoon update out of DC. I have little confidence in anything right now and any solution appears just as reasonable as another.

Dealing with weak steering patterns and a tropical system is like dealing with a ping pong ball on a flat table….we could also dealing with a system over very warm Gulf waters and that should not be taken lightly.

Impacts:

I have no confidence in any of the solutions right now which makes putting out some kind of impacts pretty much pointless. Would expect some increase in rain chances Thursday and Friday along the middle and upper coast, but then it all depends on how organized the system gets and which way it tracks. Following the NHC/HPC progs would paint a fairly wet picture for Friday-Sunday over the middle and upper coast and then that spreading down the coast early next week. Forecasted large broad circulation and tight gradient on the northern flank could push a good amount of water toward the TX coast. Where the system develops would determine where the greatest push of water would be. No need at this point to get overly worried about tides, but something to keep a close eye on by Friday. Slow moving/stalled tropical systems can result in some decent coastal flood events even if they are weak due to the prolonged nature of the wind and waves piling water on the coast (aka TS Frances 1998). Will probably start to see some increasing swells/waves Friday regardless of where the system develops due to a tightening pressure gradient over the northern Gulf.

I know we are heading toward a holiday weekend, I would not cancel any plans yet, but residents along the TX coast should monitor updates on this potential tropical system closely and some significant forecast changes will likely be required at some point for some areas for this weekend/early next week.

Main item to keep in mind with this potential system is slow and prolonged with some erratic motions likely.

[underthwx]

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
312 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e00p48iwbg_fill.gif
This image depicts forecast precip.time period located lower left of image.
9/03/11 to 9/05/11






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Look to the southwest and western Gulf for development, not the southeast Gulf.

Are you suggesting that a new feature will form in that area or that the existing wave may move to and develop in that area?

if he is saying the area will eventually move to the western gulf than yes i agree. but I think it will begin to develop just north of the yucatan channel then move towards the western gulf. right now steering is still such that it will bring the energy north into the southern gulf then as more ridging build in it will move off to the western gulf. I do not think we will see a TD till probably friday or sat but there is a chance it could develop quicker out the old boundary and wave moving into the southern gulf over the next 24 hours.

[TexWx]

So Wxman57, SW gulf means into Mexico?

[Turtle]

Is it me or is the rain closer to MS/GA coast? I checked the new 18z gfs, but I could be wrong since I don't really know how to read the new models.

[Aric Dunn]

really 18z GFS.. lol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Im no Scientician, but I can spot three areas of disturbed weather that could pop in the next week. One is in the BOC, the other off the Florida coast and Other in W. Carib.


Interesting weekend we are going to have. Models have all developed these features once but dropped some of them off on later runs. So I just dont know. Katia aside, ill be watching the gulf for now.

[HurricaneBrain]

So Wxman57, SW gulf means into Mexico?

He never said it was going to make landfall on the SW GOM Coast, just develop in the area. The low is forecast to start moving NW once in the Western Gulf.

[PauleinHouston]

Look to the southwest and western Gulf for development, not the southeast Gulf.

Are you suggesting that a new feature will form in that area or that the existing wave may move to and develop in that area?

if he is saying the area will eventually move to the western gulf than yes i agree. but I think it will begin to develop just north of the yucatan channel then move towards the western gulf. right now steering is still such that it will bring the energy north into the southern gulf then as more ridging build in it will move off to the western gulf. I do not think we will see a TD till probably friday or sat but there is a chance it could develop quicker out the old boundary and wave moving into the southern gulf over the next 24 hours.

Aric, agreed. I bet he's indicating movement to and development in that area. Few days ago though the Euro and even yesterday GFS future storms forecast showed a feature in the BOC area moving North and then towards the Mexico coast with a second feature in the W/Central GOM which wobbled about South of LA for about 4 days and, as you suggest, meanders West then W/SW during that time frame... "edit" Jeff L mentions Frances yet again.

[South Texas Storms]

really 18z GFS.. lol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Aric I just don't see that run happening. Do you? Plus it is the 18z run. Not as much data in it as 12z/0z.

[underthwx]

My new official forecast is to keep watching......the NHC....the NWS....and the Pros right here on 2k.





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.