Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[jeff]

Humberto Jr.

I think if Houston doesn't get any rain,
you will hear the collective sound of broken hearts
all over.

This does not look like Humberto, more like Frances 98 with a broad circulation and very slow moving/stalled in weak steering. These factors both suggest a prolonged rainfall and coastal flood event. Confidence in where it develops, how it moves and how strong is left to be debated as guidance has just about every solution out there right now. Leaning toward a middle/low coast landfall of something with all the weather off to the N/E a classic TX tropical system all the weather away from the center, these are much more common than the Rita's and Ike's.

[Aric Dunn]

really 18z GFS.. lol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Aric I just don't see that run happening. Do you? Plus it is the 18z run. Not as much data in it as 12z/0z.

not likely.. but it does point out that the area currently in the NW carrib/ SE gulf drifts north and eventually develops south of LA than drops back SE as strong ridigng builds in.. . not any area to the west.

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS 10 1/2 days

[txwxpirate]

I only mentioned Humberto because I read a post that made reference to something creeping up on us and I just mentioned Humberto - I got hit by that...should have explained it more in detail....SORRY.

In any event, with the models all over the place and so much uncertainity and this being a holiday weekend, I just hope everyone is prepared no matter what storm this may be like. Thats my real concern, people being safe.

[Vortex]

GFS 10 1/2 days

Someone dial Ivan up

[South Texas Storms]

Past few GFS runs have been very weird imo. I'm sticking to a solution like the 12z Euro shows today as it has been much more consistent than the GFS.

[jeff]

Past few GFS runs have been very weird imo. I'm sticking to a solution like the 12z Euro shows today as it has been much more consistent than the GFS.

This is the first GFS run suggesting such a solution. GFS has been aimed at development S of LA and then a W to WSW drift down the TX coast. This development on this run is clearly the Caribbean wave while previously the development was some sort of combination of the TW and trough axis near the TX coast along with some energy coming northward out of the BOC.

[ROCK]

GFS 10 1/2 days

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/3/capturemtc.jpg/http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/2781/capturemtc.jpgurl]

Someone dial Ivan up

is that the same system 10 days from now?

[South Texas Storms]

Past few GFS runs have been very weird imo. I'm sticking to a solution like the 12z Euro shows today as it has been much more consistent than the GFS.

This is the first GFS run suggesting such a solution. GFS has been aimed at development S of LA and then a W to WSW drift down the TX coast. This development on this run is clearly the Caribbean wave while previously the development was some sort of combination of the TW and trough axis near the TX coast along with some energy coming northward out of the BOC.

Do you think that run is going to verify? It seems unlikely to just sit near New Orleans for a few days...

[ROCK]

nevermind it is.....this thing sits in the GOM for 10 days.....highly unlikely.....

[PauleinHouston]

GFS 10 1/2 days

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/3/capturemtc.jpg/http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/2781/capturemtc.jpgurl]

Someone dial Ivan up

is that the same system 10 days from now?

Highly doubtful. I think Jeff hit it correctly few posts up actually. Maybe a second TWave that lifts out of Carib? I'm opting with the Euro here as well...while GFS hinted at BOC and W/Central Gulf, I can't see either of those features being in that position 10 days out!

[Aric Dunn]

Past few GFS runs have been very weird imo. I'm sticking to a solution like the 12z Euro shows today as it has been much more consistent than the GFS.

This is the first GFS run suggesting such a solution. GFS has been aimed at development S of LA and then a W to WSW drift down the TX coast. This development on this run is clearly the Caribbean wave while previously the development was some sort of combination of the TW and trough axis near the TX coast along with some energy coming northward out of the BOC.

well the euro all though develops a system in the western gulf .. between 162 and 192 hours it has similar solution to gfs with something moving SE.. I think it does not show up till the end because the resolution is to low being that two system are in the gulf.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Rgv20]

Past few GFS runs have been very weird imo. I'm sticking to a solution like the 12z Euro shows today as it has been much more consistent than the GFS.

This is the first GFS run suggesting such a solution. GFS has been aimed at development S of LA and then a W to WSW drift down the TX coast. This development on this run is clearly the Caribbean wave while previously the development was some sort of combination of the TW and trough axis near the TX coast along with some energy coming northward out of the BOC.

Taking a closer look at the 18zGFS, on the 850mb vorticity forecast map it looks like it gets a boost of energy from the BOC...I could be wrong tho..

[South Texas Storms]

Knowing how bad our drought is in TX right now, this run will probably verify. Why won't it just end already? Sheesh.

[PauleinHouston]

Knowing how bad our drought is in TX right now, this run will probably verify. Why won't it just end already? Sheesh.

I'm with you on the drought as I think we all are in Texas! All these models are plain and simply a crap shoot...like going to Vegas with soon to be "lost wages". Until better data is available, organization begins and a plane can get out there along with ingesting data from soundings along the Gulf coast and points inland, none of these models really have anything to latch onto from a consensus/track standpoint. The only thing that is consistent thus far is development...the where and when is not far away imo and the where it/they go(es) should follow shortly behind that.

[Nikki]

Here sits one Texan on the edge of her seat...I so don't wanna be broken hearted! But it seems the more runs we have the less rain Texas gets!

[South Texas Storms]

Here sits one Texan on the edge of her seat...I so don't wanna be broken hearted! But it seems the more runs we have the less rain Texas gets!

Same here... Hopefully tonight's 0z models begin to agree on TX getting some heavy drought busting rain! I wouldn't count on it though...

[NDG]

West wind reported on top of the hour by buoy 42056, but could be from near by thunderstorm as reported temperature is 3 degrees cooler than previous hour.

Conditions at 42056 as of
(5:50 pm CDT)
2250 GMT on 08/30/2011:

Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 280 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 103 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.3 °F

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Tireman4]

I think we will all see some rain out of this. I really do.....I can almost assuredly say with a decent amount of confidence that only a amateur can make, this will not be our last rodeo this year with tropical mischief in Texas.


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