ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Seriously the GFS does not have a handle at all on this.. now this run the trough off the east coast now that was not there in the 12z at 126 hours is not now back again.. i have no confidence in the models past 3 days right now.

18z


12z

[SeminoleWind]

to trough or not to trough that is the question, probably need to wait a day or two to get a better handle on this one i suppose.

[cycloneye]

The organization phase continues.

[Jevo]

Seriously the GFS does not have a handle at all on this.. now this run the trough off the east coast now that was not there in the 12z at 126 hours is not now back again.. i have no confidence in the models past 3 days right now.

18z
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

12z
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

Agreed.. was looking at +144 and its not even worth posting the maps past 5 days at this point... Im on the wait till Thursday bandwagon

Here is the link for those interested
+144 http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/8409/n ... sl144x.gif
+168 http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/3311 ... msl168.gif

[SeminoleWind]

that circ in the gulf seem to be moving east?

[Jevo]

that circ in the gulf seem to be moving east?

LoL sure is...

+192




lol... here ya go Panhandle.. something to talk about +252

[meriland23]

The best we can do is pay attention to the here and now and worry about tracking when more time has passed and we have a better formulated system. If you look at Irenes PP 136 hrs + before landfall, you can clearly see how incredibly off the track was. Like a lot of you are saying, thurs or fri will give us at least a more accurate prejection. All I do know for sure is that this system is a quick mover, it is close to borderline hurricane status, and is moving WNW.

[meriland23]

that circ in the gulf seem to be moving east?

LoL sure is...

+192

http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/4093 ... msl192.gif

That system in the gulf looks slightly ominous, hope it directs more westward, Texas needs it.

[rainstorm]

sadly, it looks like texas wont get rain. i cant imagine we will see a track like that though

[cycloneye]

The runs for the GOM system can be posted at the homebrew thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111653&hilit=&p=2182151#p2182151

[Aric Dunn]

well its organizing even faster... hurricane by 11 am maybe .. ??

[abajan]

Does this thing have the potential to possibly reach Cat 5 strength for a short time? I know this is a ridiculous question given how early it is...but its been a long time since theres been a cat 5 out in the atlantic.

Without a doubt, Cape Verde hurricanes tend to be the most strong, this one has a unusual acceleration and strength with nothing much out there to degrade it.

Let me introduce you to Hurricane Wilma strongest hurricane on record (Atlantic) ..... heheh but yes CV storms tend to have better conditions to deal with

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/2921/track.gif

Neither was Mitch in 1998 a Cape Verde hurricane.

Back on topic, I think this will be a hurricane by 5.00 AM. (Heck, by the looks of it, I won't be terribly surprised if it's upgraded in the 11.00 PM advisory tonight!)

[Shuriken]

Let me introduce you to Hurricane Wilma strongest hurricane on record (Atlantic) ..... heheh but yes CV storms tend to have better conditions to deal with

While Wilma was the most intense, I would wager that either Mitch, Isabel or Katrina was the strongest overall in terms of applying very strong winds to a huge area around an enormous eye.

- - - - -

Katia appears to be accelerating under the influence of an easterly surge now; I would not be surprised to see the low-level center race west out from under convection tomorrow morning.

[SouthDadeFish]

Center estimate as of 2230Z:



CIMSS ADT estimates:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2011 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 12:46:59 N Lon : 35:44:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 /1000.1mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.8 3.8

Center Temp : -71.8C Cloud Region Temp : -64.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Aric Dunn]

Bet winds go up to either 65 or 70 at 11pm and hurricane by 5 am or 11am.

[expat2carib]

Thank you! 136 hrs before landfall .The CONUS is not the only land in it's path. In the mean time it can pass right over my head as a major. A Friday projection.....yes...yes...no...no...

The best we can do is pay attention to the here and now and worry about tracking when more time has passed and we have a better formulated system. If you look at Irenes PP 136 hrs + before landfall, you can clearly see how incredibly off the track was. Like a lot of you are saying, thurs or fri will give us at least a more accurate prejection. All I do know for sure is that this system is a quick mover, it is close to borderline hurricane status, and is moving WNW.

[rog]

Aric, I think you might be right. 70 at 11pm and a hurricane at 5am. I wouldn't be surprised if it was upgraded at 11, but I think they will wait until morning to do it.

[Lowpressure]

Let me introduce you to Hurricane Wilma strongest hurricane on record (Atlantic) ..... heheh but yes CV storms tend to have better conditions to deal with

While Wilma was the most intense, I would wager that either Mitch, Isabel or Katrina was the strongest overall in terms of applying very strong winds to a huge area around an enormous eye.

- - - - -

Katia appears to be accelerating under the influence of an easterly surge now; I would not be surprised to see the low-level center race west out from under convection tomorrow morning.

I would add ALLEN to your list.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=w ... MfjAxfUzQw

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I don't see it become upgraded before a visible is available unless it is undeniable (i.e. closed eye on microwave or appearing on infrared). I would guess 55 kt right now.

[Jevo]

Thank you! 136 hrs before landfall .The CONUS is not the only land in it's path. In the mean time it can pass right over my head as a major. A Friday projection.....yes...yes...no...no...

The best we can do is pay attention to the here and now and worry about tracking when more time has passed and we have a better formulated system. If you look at Irenes PP 136 hrs + before landfall, you can clearly see how incredibly off the track was. Like a lot of you are saying, thurs or fri will give us at least a more accurate prejection. All I do know for sure is that this system is a quick mover, it is close to borderline hurricane status, and is moving WNW.

Definitly not playing down the possibility of a Caribbean landfall. The way the models have been behaving I think people are just not putting a lot of confidence in anything over 72 hours myself included.. As time nears though in 48hours or so I think the picture will become much more clear to all of us. Sit tight, we're definitly not over looking you