ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneWarning92]

Recurve or not, at least we have something to track!

[Lowpressure]

Recurve or not, at least we have something to track!

This is true, and she appears to be ready to throw out some impressive numbers in a few days.

[Raebie]

Best kind of storm. A beauty to watch...coming and going.

[expat2carib]

@Jevo, Thanks for your input. Very much appreciated.

The fact is that I'm getting a little edgy. I'm on the border of the 120 hours cone and have to make some decisions soon.

Friday projection will give me almost no time. There is more between CV and CONUS.

Thank you! 136 hrs before landfall .The CONUS is not the only land in it's path. In the mean time it can pass right over my head as a major. A Friday projection.....yes...yes...no...no...

The best we can do is pay attention to the here and now and worry about tracking when more time has passed and we have a better formulated system. If you look at Irenes PP 136 hrs + before landfall, you can clearly see how incredibly off the track was. Like a lot of you are saying, thurs or fri will give us at least a more accurate prejection. All I do know for sure is that this system is a quick mover, it is close to borderline hurricane status, and is moving WNW.

Definitly not playing down the possibility of a Caribbean landfall. The way the models have been behaving I think people are just not putting a lot of confidence in anything over 72 hours myself included.. As time nears though in 48hours or so I think the picture will become much more clear to all of us. Sit tight, we're definitly not over looking you

[Ptarmigan]

Intensity model for Katia. Some have Katia as a Category 5 hurricane.



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[Ptarmigan]

Does this thing have the potential to possibly reach Cat 5 strength for a short time? I know this is a ridiculous question given how early it is...but its been a long time since theres been a cat 5 out in the atlantic.

Some models have Katia as a Category 5 hurricane as I posted in the Katia model topic.

[meriland23]

@Ptar, I see that alot increased the intensity versus the last run of that model. Especially GFDI, last run was little above 140, now it looks like 150+.

[Ixolib]

If a storm has never "curved" in the first place, I'm wondering how the term "recurve" came into play??? Is there a formal definition/description of the term as it applies to hurricanes, or is it a word that has simply become the traditional terminology for the event? And, does "recurve" take place at any time before it changes its course from westerly to easterly, i.e., is a 90 degree turn described as a recurve, or does that apply only after a reverse in course of 180 degrees has taken place?

Things that make me go hmmmmmmmmm....

[meriland23]

If a storm has never "curved" in the first place, I'm wondering how the term "recurve" came into play??? Is there a formal definition/description of the term as it applies to hurricanes, or is it a word that has simply become the traditional terminology for the event? And, does "recurve" take place at any time before it changes its course from westerly to easterly, i.e., is a 90 degree turn described as a recurve, or does that apply only after a reverse in course of 180 degrees has taken place?

Things that make me go hmmmmmmmmm....

That sounds like something George Carlin would say

[LeeNess87]

Best kind of storm. A beauty to watch...coming and going.

Agreed!

[Zarniwoop]

Is there a site where you can take a look at the entireity of past storms with model predictions and actual paths day by day?

That would be fascinating.

[blazess556]

00z position

AL, 12, 2011083100, , BEST, 0, 131N, 366W, 50, 997, TS,

[sandyb]

Our local met said we need to watch there the "hurricane" is and if it hits Japan it Japan gets hit then we have a good chance of getting hit by Katia if it misses Japan then Katia will most likely stay away from the US East Coast, I live in North Carolina we just got Irene and I don't want another hurricane this year we have had our fix for at least 5 years if that is what you can call it. some of still dont have power and looking at several more days here.

[terrapintransit]

Models "appear" to be picking up on something that keeps favoring more of a westward bend after 5 days...with my newb eyes of course.

[clfenwi]

Pretty good conflict in position estimates . SAB's estimate was 13.7 N, 36.1 W, while TAFB's was 12.7 N 36.2 W. Automated technique from UW-CIMSS estimated 12.9 N, 36.15. Given the best track longitude is west of all of these estimates, they may have used earlier microwave imagery in setting the position.

[meriland23]

Models "appear" to be picking up on something that keeps favoring more of a westward bend after 5 days...with my newb eyes of course.


http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... _model.gif

Looks it, but it is not supposed to make that drastic curve until a little further out, around 70W, but I am hearing more and more that Katia will much more likely be able to pass 70w without being effected much. Therefore, if Katia hits 70W with no definitive curve, then the US should start preparring/ worrying. Cause it would likely bump into the east coast.

[SootyTern]

Could the cyclone forecast to develop in the GOM affect the track of Katia? And in what way?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

no.

[3090]

no.

And please tell me how "no"? I am curious to your scientific reasoning. Thanks.

Personally, I have no idea how you can say yes, or no, this far out. It is quite surprising.

[terrapintransit]

I see wunderground must have updated their models as soon as I posted it..Now the GFS and GFDL look to be re-curving Katia much quicker around 65 West while NOGAPS, NGFDL, UKMET, and HWRF are sticking to more of a westward track.