Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks Rgv! What do you guys think about the area of convection currently just south of the Yucatan Channel?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html

[Annie Oakley]

NATURALLY my brother is on a cruise ship headed back to port Galveston on on the 4th.............

But he would be the first one to say bring on the rain, as he is a landscape designer.. Great believer in Xeriscaping so normally he only waters his yard twice a year. With the drought it is once a week in San Antonio.
Bring it on!

[Annie Oakley]

Looks like a bit of a blow up there South Texas....nice.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like a bit of a blow up there South Texas....nice.

Yeah thanks. I'm interested to see if it will persist throughout the night...

[northjaxpro]

NHC 8:00 p.m. TWD on the tropical wave we are monitoring currently across the NW Caribbean Sea:


WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
MOISTURE COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS HELPING
ENHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HALF WRN CUBA...AS WELL AS
INLAND IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SEA ARE FROM 14N-22N
BETWEEN 79W-85W. CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA CONTRIBUTED TO THE FORMATION OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE...WAVE
FORMATION AND GROWTH IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WERE FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTED ITS FORMATION. IN 24 HOURS THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A WNW-NW TRACK INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[ROCK]

as we talked about a few pages back.....defintley lower convergence around the channel going on....850MB voracity not so much...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Jevo]

Rgv, where do you think this system will eventually make landfall?

It's hard to pinpoint a landfall but my best guess would be anywhere from SW LA to Northeastern Mexico.

Hehe how about Key West to Cancun.. At 10 days out right now the models are as reliable as an email from a Nigerian Prince asking you to transfer all his money for him.

[South Texas Storms]

Rgv, where do you think this system will eventually make landfall?

It's hard to pinpoint a landfall but my best guess would be anywhere from SW LA to Northeastern Mexico.

Hehe how about Key West to Cancun.. At 10 days out right now the models are as reliable as an email from a Nigerian Prince asking you to transfer all his money for him.

It's not 10 days out right now. Most models show this making landfall in less than 6 days.

[ROCK]

It's hard to pinpoint a landfall but my best guess would be anywhere from SW LA to Northeastern Mexico.[/quote]

Hehe how about Key West to Cancun.. At 10 days out right now the models are as reliable as an email from a Nigerian Prince asking you to transfer all his money for him.[/quote]

It's not 10 days out right now. Most models show this making landfall in less than 6 days.[/quote]


STS----just let it develope first then we can arm chair this thing to death....right now the models are not in agreement of anything other than a low.... no way you can pinpoint a landfall of a system that hasnt developed. There could be center relos, sheared to death, steering fluxs...

[South Texas Storms]

It's hard to pinpoint a landfall but my best guess would be anywhere from SW LA to Northeastern Mexico.

Hehe how about Key West to Cancun.. At 10 days out right now the models are as reliable as an email from a Nigerian Prince asking you to transfer all his money for him.[/quote]

It's not 10 days out right now. Most models show this making landfall in less than 6 days.[/quote]


STS----just let it develope first then we can arm chair this thing to death....right now the models are not in agreement of anything other than a low.... no way you can pinpoint a landfall of a system that hasnt developed. There could be center relos, sheared to death, steering fluxs...[/quote]




Well Rock are you at least somewhat confident that you will get some good rainfall from this?

[CrazyC83]

18 pages and it is not even an Invest yet.

[Portastorm]

18 pages and it is not even an Invest yet.

Yep, the result of many members who live in the new desert known as Texas. We are THAT desperate.

[South Texas Storms]

18 pages and it is not even an Invest yet.

Yep, the result of many members who live in the new desert known as Texas. We are THAT desperate.

Couldn't have said it much better myself Porta. I've never wanted a tropical system to hit TX this badly. We are THAT desperate.

[Comanche]

The drought is so bad, my foundation has shifted, leaving large cracks in my walls and sticking doors. My house was built with piers already drilled!!! It's that frikkin' dry here. I'll take anything from an inch to 20"..............bring it on!

[Jevo]

It's not 10 days out right now. Most models show this making landfall in less than 6 days.

Im not sure where you are finding any realistic models with that solution (and I dont even trust these past 84 hours right now).. The closest to your timeline is the GFS which shows a Pensacola hit in 10 days

18z GFS +252



and up to 6 days on the Euro I do not see anything other than some weak low pressure meandering around the gulf

12z Euro +144



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Aric Dunn]

Some weak rotation on radar with convection building.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[Portastorm]

Definitely some convection building tonight in the Channel!

[SouthDadeFish]

Did anyone notice that this buoy is reporting a WSW wind?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[stormreader]

Looks like upper level conditions in the NW Carib and Gulf are improving rapidly. You can see the dip of the trough off to the east in the Carribean (a sign of the higher pressure aloft in the NW Carib) and you can see the trough across the central Gulf beginning to break down with a resultant slackening of the hostile w to e flow and building more stable upper level conditions in the central Gulf.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[gatorcane]

12Z Experimental FIM model at 78 hours. Looks like it wants to ramp something up more quickly than the GFS and ECMWF, though it is not a very deep system.