ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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#901 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:08 pm

:uarrow: not really. i think shes right on track.
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#902 Postby Shuriken » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:11 pm

Shuriken wrote:Katia appears to be accelerating under the influence of an easterly surge now; I would not be surprised to see the low-level center race west out from under convection tomorrow morning.
Easy to see the eastery surge: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir2.html

-- This should force the track left and fast.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#903 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:13 pm

abajan wrote:No major changes: Still misses islands (not so sure about Bermuda though).
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/6672/201108302139.png


Question, and I am really curious. Does anyone have a image like this but for Irene when it was still over a week away? I would like to see how accurate these models were this far out. I kind of find it baffling that local forecasters are already claiming we are in the clear for this.. what will most likely be, a massive hurricane...over 10 days out. In other model runs, it shows a more westward turn, some favor it overcoming the 70W mark and not making that massive turn.
Anyway, like I said before this rant in case you forgot lol, anyone have those models of irene 136 or more hrs before landfall?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#904 Postby StarmanHDB » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:16 pm

Swimdude wrote:Probably too early to be talking about this, but since talking about things too early has been a consistent feature of these boards for at LEAST the last 7 years... Can anyone tell if Katia is doing the "RI Fist?" I believe the term was coined by a member here... And essentially it describes the look of the system (obviously a fist), which is typically an immediate precursor to RI.


A good friend first made me aware of the "Fist of Doom" with Hurricane Ike on the color IR and it literally looked like a boxer's glove. Saw the same thing happen with Hurricane Irene before she attacked the Bahamas. The "Fist" is definitely very interesting to observe and I personally look for it to happen as I need those little "Oh, S#*t!" moments in my life. As for Katia's "Fist", haven't seen it yet....yet.
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#905 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:17 pm

yep thats an eye starting to form.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

hmmm still say 70 at 11pm now likely a hurricane by 5am

Image
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Re: Re:

#906 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:17 pm

Shuriken wrote:
Shuriken wrote:Katia appears to be accelerating under the influence of an easterly surge now; I would not be surprised to see the low-level center race west out from under convection tomorrow morning.
Easy to see the eastery surge: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir2.html

-- This should force the track left and fast.

Just curious cause I am practically hurricane handicapped in comparison to you guys. In simple terms, what does this mean and how will it effect it's track, if at all? Would it effect it's current prediction of a dramatic eastward curve around 65W-70W?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#907 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:22 pm

^^^Thanks for that image. You can see the easterly surge!

Wow, another BIG storm!
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#908 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:27 pm

Well for those that follow JB on Twitter, he still thinks the GFS is too far east. Of course this was earlier today but thought i should bring it up.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#909 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:32 pm

meriland23 wrote:
abajan wrote:No major changes: Still misses islands (not so sure about Bermuda though).
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/6672/201108302139.png


Question, and I am really curious. Does anyone have a image like this but for Irene when it was still over a week away? I would like to see how accurate these models were this far out. I kind of find it baffling that local forecasters are already claiming we are in the clear for this.. what will most likely be, a massive hurricane...over 10 days out. In other model runs, it shows a more westward turn, some favor it overcoming the 70W mark and not making that massive turn.
Anyway, like I said before this rant in case you forgot lol, anyone have those models of irene 136 or more hrs before landfall?


The below image is the 06Z GFS ensemble guidance for 97L, which eventually spawned Irene.

Image

In Irene's case, the center reformed a few times further north when she was around the Leewards. Since she did not have a well-defined center, the models were thinking the center would form further south and track through Hispaniola (or along the south side of Hispaniola) eventually on a path towards Eastern Cuba and Florida. The center formed further north, allowing her to hit a weakness off Florida sooner than if she were to have tracked south of Cuba

In Katia's case, the center is well-defined and the models are tightly clustered for a path NE of the Leewards, even trending eastward some today through 120 hours giving us higher confidence. In the long-range, the models seem to be coming into agreement on a deep trough that digs down into the Western Atlantic. Details have not been worked out but all of the dynamic models are forecasting this weakness to turn her north far away from the U.S. We can see a weakness there now actually so that gives us more certainty (though that is not the same weakness that pulls her north east of the U.S, it is reinforced by an other one in about a week from now, models have a reasonable level of forecasting skill within about 6-7 days). The agreement is reasonable enough to believe they are correct.

Oh, and for anybody looking for old model run archive, you can find them here:
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/71 ... ckgfs.png/
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#910 Postby ouragans » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:37 pm

Not far to become hurricane

CED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2011 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 13:00:59 N Lon : 36:42:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 993.4mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -60.4C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.7 degrees
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Advisories

#911 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:39 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

...KATIA RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 37.5W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
KATIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWED
THAT THE CENTER OF KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...ANOTHER BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED FROM
1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. KATIA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM
WATER AND VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
KATIA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE HWRF/GFDL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

KATIA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/19 KT. KATIA
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INDUCES A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 13.3N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 14.0N 40.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.8N 43.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 15.5N 46.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 16.5N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 18.5N 54.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 23.0N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#912 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:39 pm

Remains at 60 mph.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

...KATIA RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 37.5W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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#913 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:41 pm

With Irene we pretty much knew this would be a US threat, although the recurve threat existed, especially at the end of the track. With Katia, it's not 100% in stone that it will recurve away from the USA, but it's pretty close to that.

Being that we are getting ito September now, I think any system we get that will affect the USA will have to originate in the Gulf or the Carib.
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#914 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:41 pm

:?: People really need to stop and take a look at how far away we are from the potential of ANY landfall what-so-ever and try and remember the last time any forecasted track was correct 10 days in advance. Anyone? No? That is what I thought. The track this far ahead in time has at least proven to me to be shoddy at best. Irene was supposed to be a FL hurricane or a extremely curved one that never even set sights on the US, look what happened with that! Hurricanes do what they do and have a mind of their own. If it does not want to follow your track, it aint gonna. Seems when a Hurricane does the opposite of expectations, there is some hidden reason forecasters overlooked or did not take into consideration. I am confident that this will not take the PP estimated this early on, cause it was estimated this early on lol.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#915 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:42 pm

Excerpt from discussion.

THE UPDATED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

Image

Saved image.
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Re:

#916 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:43 pm

meriland23 wrote::?: People really need to stop and take a look at how far away we are from the potential of ANY landfall what-so-ever and try and remember the last time any forecasted track was correct 10 days in advance. Anyone? No? That is what I thought. The track this far ahead in time has at least proven to me to be shoddy at best. Irene was supposed to be a FL hurricane or a extremely curved one that never even set sights on the US, look what happened with that! Hurricanes do what they do and have a mind of their own. If it does not want to follow your track, it aint gonna. Seems when a Hurricane does the opposite of expectations, there is some hidden reason forecasters overlooked or did not take into consideration. I am confident that this will not take the PP estimated this early on, cause it was estimated this early on lol.


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Hello, while nobody can say for certain where she ends up and whether she impacts the United States, there is reasonable certainty at this time it will not be a United States impact (see models thread for discussion).
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Re:

#917 Postby caribepr » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:45 pm

meriland23 wrote::?: People really need to stop and take a look at how far away we are from the potential of ANY landfall what-so-ever and try and remember the last time any forecasted track was correct 10 days in advance. Anyone? No? That is what I thought. The track this far ahead in time has at least proven to me to be shoddy at best. Irene was supposed to be a FL hurricane or a extremely curved one that never even set sights on the US, look what happened with that! Hurricanes do what they do and have a mind of their own. If it does not want to follow your track, it aint gonna. Seems when a Hurricane does the opposite of expectations, there is some hidden reason forecasters overlooked or did not take into consideration. I am confident that this will not take the PP estimated this early on, cause it was estimated this early on lol.


I'd take gentle exception to the word 'shoddy' in forecasting a track 10 days out. It is what it is, a growing, though inexact science. Which is why the pros, over and over, tell people this; though magical thinking still wants lat and long every step of the way. 8-)
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#918 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:50 pm

NHC at 11 PM track nudged it to the right following GFS and ECMWF.
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#919 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:52 pm

When is the next NHC update after 11pm?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#920 Postby theweatherwatch » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:53 pm

The next NHC update is at 5am
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