Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[GCANE]

Starting to fire moderate to heavy rain rate.

Not quite at the hot-tower level but close.

A positive sign for development.

http://64.19.142.10/www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS/focus_regions/NW_Atlantic/Caribbean/precip/geo_blended/20110831.0115.goes13.rain.nexsat_Caribbean.0.jpg

[TYNI]

Some weak rotation on radar with convection building.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

Good catch Aric!

[SouthDadeFish]

So can anyone make anything of the WSW winds being reported? It still looks "troughy" to me.

[Aric Dunn]

So can anyone make anything of the WSW winds being reported? It still looks "troughy" to me.

yeah talked about it a few pages back. waiting to see if those readings persist to rule out local storm. but the direction fit with radar and satellite.. just have to wait.

[SouthDadeFish]

Thanks Aric, sorry I didn't see that. The new set of obs just came out and the winds switched from the west and are now reporting from the south:

8:50 pm S ( 170 deg ) 10.7 kts
8:40 pm S ( 175 deg ) 2.9 kts
8:30 pm SSW ( 204 deg ) 4.3 kts
8:20 pm SW ( 228 deg ) 8.4 kts
8:10 pm WSW ( 249 deg ) 6.4 kts
8:00 pm W ( 264 deg ) 7.2 kts

[gatorcane]

Lots of disorganized convection this evening. Development chances are possible given model guidance, but if convection does not get going on the north side of the wave axis, this could easily slowly scoot west over the Yucatan and into BOC/Western GOM with no significant development. Ridging still seems strong across the northern GOM and Texas still looking at the latest WV loops, it won't break down quickly, but gradually. It's going to be a slow process with development here.

[Jagno]

NATURALLY my brother is on a cruise ship headed back to port Galveston on on the 4th.............

Hmmm, my son and daughter in law must be on the same cruise out of Port Galveston and returning on the 4th. They should be in Jamaica in the morning.

I pray for rain but Lord please don't let our electricity go out in this heat.

[Aric Dunn]

NAM favoring the system coming out of carrib and developing north of the Yucatan.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[South Texas Storms]

NAM favoring the system coming out of carrib and developing north of the Yucatan.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Why does it move it pretty much due north for about 12 hours there? Isn't the system still forecasted to be moving WNW-NW in a few days?

[bamajammer4eva]

NAM favoring the system coming out of carrib and developing north of the Yucatan.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

First the 18z GFS trends east, now the 00z NAM trends the same way though not as much as the GFS.

Birmingham's Sunday Night Discussion may have had the right idea

UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS
SHOW RAIN RETURNING TO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE BECOMES PART OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE FRONT THAT IS GENERATED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE WET CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
BEFORE AN UNSEASONABLE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE STATE. I SAY UNSEASONABLE BECAUSE AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WE COULD BE IN FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MORE DRY AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[South Texas Storms]

NAM favoring the system coming out of carrib and developing north of the Yucatan.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

First the 18z GFS trends east, now the 00z NAM trends the same way though not as much as the GFS.

No actually if you compared the 18z NAM to tonight's 0z NAM, the 0z is further west than 18z.

[txwxpirate]

At least our temps are coming down
Houston NWS

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
919 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN EXHIBITING A DOWNWARD TREND...

RECENT RECORD-BREAKING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DAYS APPEAR TO BE OVER
AS WE HEAD INTO MID-WEEK. UPPER RIDGING IS MODELED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
AND...AFTER A DAY OF DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST...MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE.

LOWERING GULF PRESSURES WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM
WITH LATE WEEK HIGHER MOISTURE IN PRODUCING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
WHETHER THE REGION WILL BE DEALING WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE
OR NOT...THE FORECAST IS LEANING TOWARDS A MORE CLOUDY AND WET SCENARIO.

THIS WILL ULTIMATELY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...AVERAGE INLAND
MIDDLE 90S (NEAR 90 AT COAST) BY THE WEEKEND.

[ROCK]

850mb Vorticity not much to look at but lower level convergence is good to go....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[LaBreeze]

NATURALLY my brother is on a cruise ship headed back to port Galveston on on the 4th.............

Hmmm, my son and daughter in law must be on the same cruise out of Port Galveston and returning on the 4th. They should be in Jamaica in the morning.

I pray for rain but Lord please don't let our electricity go out in this heat.

Amen on the electricity thing!

[South Texas Storms]

Hmm it looks like the 0z GFS tonight again initializes the 850mb vorticity max just south of the central Cuba coast, but from the looks of the Cuba radar that Aric posted, the spin is just south of western Cuba. So maybe the GFS is initializing this system too far east.

[pwrdog]

Nam showing SE Texas and SW LA..

There is still hope for Texas

[Ptarmigan]

The computer models all agree something will develop. They don't agree on where it will go is the issue. When you average them out, it puts it around Southeast Texas.

[bamajammer4eva]

So far similar to 18z run

18z 102 hr

00z 96H

East of and stronger @ 105h

18z 111H

00z 105H

[South Texas Storms]

I still think the GFS is too far east. The thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are already nearing the Yucatan Channel moving WNW. From here, the disturbance would have to move north in order to be where the GFS is showing it in 96 hours. I really don't think that is going to happen.

[Aric Dunn]

I still think the GFS is too far east. The thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are already nearing the Yucatan Channel moving WNW. From here, the disturbance would have to move north in order to be where the GFS is showing it in 96 hours. I really don't think that is going to happen.

yes and it is moving basically NNW right now.. which is the direction of the low level steering. I think the southern gulf moving into the north central gulf seems more plausible atm being that all the energy and convection is in the far eastern gulf and NW carrib.