Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[Turtle]

I still think the GFS is too far east. The thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are already nearing the Yucatan Channel moving WNW. From here, the disturbance would have to move north in order to be where the GFS is showing it in 96 hours. I really don't think that is going to happen.

Let's hope so. I am getting annoyed by seeing rain at 100 hours out, only for it to significantly weaken or move away from Texas.

[bamajammer4eva]

I still think the GFS is too far east. The thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are already nearing the Yucatan Channel moving WNW. From here, the disturbance would have to move north in order to be where the GFS is showing it in 96 hours. I really don't think that is going to happen.

Only thing is that if you loop it, it begins off SE TX/SW LA and moves eastward after i think around 60H

[South Texas Storms]

I still think the GFS is too far east. The thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are already nearing the Yucatan Channel moving WNW. From here, the disturbance would have to move north in order to be where the GFS is showing it in 96 hours. I really don't think that is going to happen.

yes and it is moving basically NNW right now.. which is the direction of the low level steering. I think the southern gulf moving into the north central gulf seems more plausible atm being that all the energy and convection is in the far eastern gulf and NW carrib.

Aric do you think it is starting to look less likely for a western GOM landfall now? Is it too early to lose hope?

[ROCK]

FWIW- NOGAPS- in SW LA before to runs smack dab into the high and moves it west into Texas....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


always good entertainment...

[pwrdog]

I still think the GFS is too far east. The thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are already nearing the Yucatan Channel moving WNW. From here, the disturbance would have to move north in order to be where the GFS is showing it in 96 hours. I really don't think that is going to happen.

Only thing is that if you loop it, it begins off SE TX/SW LA and moves eastward after i think around 60H

We need this rain bad... Please!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[maxintensity]

This cant go to FL without ECMWF backing that idea. Euro has never wavered from deep south TX/MX. It's pretty tough to beat at 5 days out. We'll see.

[ROCK]

I still think the GFS is too far east. The thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are already nearing the Yucatan Channel moving WNW. From here, the disturbance would have to move north in order to be where the GFS is showing it in 96 hours. I really don't think that is going to happen.

yes and it is moving basically NNW right now.. which is the direction of the low level steering. I think the southern gulf moving into the north central gulf seems more plausible atm being that all the energy and convection is in the far eastern gulf and NW carrib.

Aric do you think it is starting to look less likely for a western GOM landfall now? Is it too early to lose hope?

watch the guidance and where it if anything sets up shop....the GOM is ripe with heat content so I woundt be surprised to see a strong TS or cat 1 out of this if it does develope......models still all over the place...

[South Texas Storms]

FWIW- NOGAPS- in SW LA before to runs smack dab into the high and moves it west into Texas....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


always good entertainment...

Rock, I think it's about time to give up on this one. Were done. Why am I not surprised...

[BigA]

00 GFS is more plausible than the 18Z but still odd. Forms the storm near Louisiana, moves it close to due east to the Big Bend of Florida, makes landfall, then runs up the east coast.

[Aric Dunn]

I still think the GFS is too far east. The thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are already nearing the Yucatan Channel moving WNW. From here, the disturbance would have to move north in order to be where the GFS is showing it in 96 hours. I really don't think that is going to happen.

yes and it is moving basically NNW right now.. which is the direction of the low level steering. I think the southern gulf moving into the north central gulf seems more plausible atm being that all the energy and convection is in the far eastern gulf and NW carrib.

Aric do you think it is starting to look less likely for a western GOM landfall now? Is it too early to lose hope?

well the GFS now takes it east over north florida. its going to be in weak steering currents so its not an easy one to forecast. just going to have to wait.

[bamajammer4eva]

162H Shows Katia and Lee awfully close together almost holding hands

[ROCK]

This cant go to FL without ECMWF backing that idea. Euro has never wavered from deep south TX/MX. It's pretty tough to beat at 5 days out. We'll see.

yeah....never go against EURO.. you will lose everytime.....12Z CMC showed something similar...those are the big boys in my mind.

[maxintensity]

Wow 0z GFS wants to take you down a trip through the rabbit hole where tropical storms form out of nowhere off the LA cost, head east across FL, then intensify into a hurricane for an EC hit.

[Rgv20]

The Legend of the Euro Grows....We shall see in a couple of days as the ECMWF has not waver much on a Western GOM event.

[ROCK]

Wow 0z GFS wants to take you down a trip through the rabbit hole where tropical storms form out of nowhere off the LA cost, head east across FL, then intensify into a hurricane for an EC hit.

next run it will have Lee slingshot Kat into the EC and send him out to sea.....

[South Texas Storms]

This cant go to FL without ECMWF backing that idea. Euro has never wavered from deep south TX/MX. It's pretty tough to beat at 5 days out. We'll see.

yeah....never go against EURO.. you will lose everytime.....12Z CMC showed something similar...those are the big boys in my mind.

So Rock you are not worried about the eastward shifts the GFS has made in the last 2 runs?

[ROCK]

FWIW- NOGAPS- in SW LA before to runs smack dab into the high and moves it west into Texas....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


always good entertainment...

Rock, I think it's about time to give up on this one. Were done. Why am I not surprised...

easy now....this is not even an invest.... give it some time. The models are only guessing at this point.

[WeatherEmperor]

So ROCK are you staying up late for tonight's Euro to see what this system does?

[ROCK]

This cant go to FL without ECMWF backing that idea. Euro has never wavered from deep south TX/MX. It's pretty tough to beat at 5 days out. We'll see.

yeah....never go against EURO.. you will lose everytime.....12Z CMC showed something similar...those are the big boys in my mind.

So Rock you are not worried about the eastward shifts the GFS has made in the last 2 runs?

worried about the GFS solution? ha.... lest not forget it didnt even see Don or Arlene in the carib. It went 15 runs in a row with Irene into FL and looked where it ended up,,,,It even had Irene into Galveston at one run.....

give it time grasshopper...

[ROCK]

So ROCK are you staying up late for tonight's Euro to see what this system does?

nah, I can see it in the am....got a meeting with the big boys tomorrow...

someone wake up Ivan.....sheesh....