ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Adoquín]

Interesting that the increase in forward speed has not affected track projection or has it.

[WxGuy1]

[quote="meriland23"If it does not want to follow your track, it aint gonna. Seems when a Hurricane does the opposite of expectations, there is some hidden reason forecasters overlooked or did not take into consideration.[/quote]

I catch your drift, but, for the record, a hurricane isn't a magic entity that does what it wants . The hurricane moves according to physics, plain and simple. Of course, the question is whether or not the computer forecast models are able to forecast accurately as a result of errors in the initialization (e.g. does the model analyze what CURRENT atmosphere well?) and various assumptions and parameterizations. Sometimes, a 5 day forecast will be very good; other times, a 2 day forecast may be terrible. In general, if there is good agreement amongst the different models (ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) and there is good run-to-run consistency (e.g. tonight's 00z runs look pretty similar to this morning's 12z runs), then you typically can have more confidence in the forecasts. On the other hand, if the different models each give very different solutions, and if there is very poor run-to-run consistency (e.g. if tonight's model forecasts look a lot different than this morning's runs), then it's wise to have less confidence in any individual model.

You point that long-range forecasts typically can have very large error is well taken. Sometimes we can trust those long-range foreacasts more than other times, though.

[BigA]

Our local met said we need to watch there the "hurricane" is and if it hits Japan it Japan gets hit then we have a good chance of getting hit by Katia if it misses Japan then Katia will most likely stay away from the US East Coast, I live in North Carolina we just got Irene and I don't want another hurricane this year we have had our fix for at least 5 years if that is what you can call it. some of still dont have power and looking at several more days here.

What in Seven Hells? What is this madness?! How can one cane influence another?

It has to do with atmospheric teleconnections, the relationship between the atmospher in the western Pacific and the atmosphere in the Atlantic. Because mid-latitude features like shortwave troughts migrate from west to east, in theory they are over Japan 7-10 days before they are over the eastern seaboard of the United States. This area has not been explored too thoroughly, though.

That said, the indications for Katia recurving are quite strong, and teleconnections aren't even close to set in stone, so if the typhoon hits Japan I wouldn't necessarilly worry a lot more about Katia coming to the U.S.

[Annie Oakley]

Very enlightening post for us WXGuy. And you are the model of patience I must say ha ha.
Pay attention folks....science rules!

[meriland23]

Well, how is the typhoon tracking then ?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It's a wonder people don't take bets on Model runs, lol.

Way off topic......but

http://www.Intrade.com has bets on Which basin would have more hurricanes, It was East Pac vs Atlantic. They still do have some weather related bets.


Here is one.



http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contr ... tId=749236

Its actually more of a skewed Stock market and a wonderful political indicator. Good fun, but anything meterological is pure speculation. Need to rereg my account there. havent traded since 2008. Made some good money on election believe it or not.

[dexterlabio]

Well, how is the typhoon tracking then ?

The typhoon named "Talas" is very likely to hit Japan, as all existing models indicate that particular scenario. However, I think your basin has a different setup at this point.

[dexterlabio]

Our local met said we need to watch there the "hurricane" is and if it hits Japan it Japan gets hit then we have a good chance of getting hit by Katia if it misses Japan then Katia will most likely stay away from the US East Coast, I live in North Carolina we just got Irene and I don't want another hurricane this year we have had our fix for at least 5 years if that is what you can call it. some of still dont have power and looking at several more days here.

It has to do with atmospheric teleconnections, the relationship between the atmospher in the western Pacific and the atmosphere in the Atlantic. Because mid-latitude features like shortwave troughts migrate from west to east, in theory they are over Japan 7-10 days before they are over the eastern seaboard of the United States. This area has not been explored too thoroughly, though.

That said, the indications for Katia recurving are quite strong, and teleconnections aren't even close to set in stone, so if the typhoon hits Japan I wouldn't necessarilly worry a lot more about Katia coming to the U.S.

Hmmm interesting to note! Thank you for the info.

[ROCK]

uh anyone looked at the 0z CMC.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


out to sea you say...ummm I wouldnt put all my money on it...

[fci]

uh anyone looked at the 0z CMC.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


out to sea you say...ummm I wouldnt put all my money on it...

The model run stops NE of Puerto Rico.
Did you see anything past that to make you go ?

[ROCK]

uh anyone looked at the 0z CMC.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


out to sea you say...ummm I wouldnt put all my money on it...

The model run stops NE of Puerto Rico.
Did you see anything past that to make you go ?

hmmm lets see have you been watching past model runs? maybe not...

well all the other globals have been hell bent on recurve well before PR longitude...CMC might be showing a trend now with a building ridge and the pattern change....westward bend at the end of the run...a lot closer to PR than before...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Dude its the CMC....I'll believe it when GFS backs it up

[fci]

uh anyone looked at the 0z CMC.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


out to sea you say...ummm I wouldnt put all my money on it...

The model run stops NE of Puerto Rico.
Did you see anything past that to make you go ?

hmmm lets see have you been watching past model runs? maybe not...

well all the other globals have been hell bent on recurve well before PR longitude...CMC might be showing a trend now with a building ridge and the pattern change....westward bend at the end of the run...a lot closer to PR than before...

Looks like it puts her in about the same place as the models to the left on this model plot from Weather Underground:(unless you were already referring to this map)


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ROCK]

Dude its the CMC....I'll believe it when GFS backs it up

ha....the GFS had Irene for 15 runs in a row into FL....that didnt work out so well...EURO and CMC are hands down better than the GFS at any time. IMO....CMC was upgraded recently...

[meriland23]

uh anyone looked at the 0z CMC.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


out to sea you say...ummm I wouldnt put all my money on it...

It is too soon to put your eggs in any basket right now, including that model. I am only saying this cause there are too many major factors that fluctuate the intensity and projection of ..well, any hurricane lol. When it comes to hurricanes, every little big counts and goes a long way. Speed, intensity, timing, these can all be a hair off and lead to a very different route. That said, it does intrigue me that it goes from NW to practically due west from frame 17 on.

[ROCK]

CMC is a lot further south and west on this run,....

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Dude its the CMC....I'll believe it when GFS backs it up

ha....the GFS had Irene for 15 runs in a row into FL....that didnt work out so well...EURO and CMC are hands down better than the GFS at any time. IMO....CMC was upgraded recently...

Like I said in the other thread. I might aswell make swirls in my bathtub, its about as accurate as the CMC. If Im wrong ill eat crow, but I have never in 5 years, seen the CMC lead a trend or sniff a deviation of a system. GFS, IMO, is the standard with the euro a close 2nd.

[meriland23]

uh anyone looked at the 0z CMC.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


out to sea you say...ummm I wouldnt put all my money on it...

Btw, when was this model created, I know it says 0z, not sure if that means midnight (east coast) or what..

[fci]

Nice quibbling going on here for what is supposed to happen a week from now.

Bottom line is that it is fun to see what the models say 7-10 days from now and NO ONE is right or wrong at this point.

The interesting thing is, obviously; climatology says recurve will happen BUT there are models telling us to hold off on the slam-dunk of a recurve.
So, after we went through the saga of Irene; many are on edge and the fact that there is no complete consensus of a solid recurve means we still need to pay attention.

I'd still bet on a recurve but nothing is absolute with the tropics as we have all learned time and time again.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Model consensus is the key. When there is good agreement amongst the models about the direction a system will go then you can feel reasonablly sure that will happen. But there are always exceptions to the rule. It is fun to see what the models say 10 days out being that the margin of error is very great at that time period. So I agree with fci on this. No one is right or wrong at this point.