Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[ROCK]

the 0z CMC decides to pound Galveston with an intensifying can..... holy crap...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


look how far Kat come west also......double crap...

[dwsqos2]

The CMC has been upgraded, but considering that there will be an upper low in proximity to the surface low, the 0Z and 12Z runs are reminding me of the days when the model would significantly develop every disturbance interacting with an upper low. Yeah, it isn't that concerning in my humble opinion.

[RachelAnna]

the 0z CMC decides to pound Galveston with an intensifying can..... holy crap...

look how far Kat come west also......double crap...

We need the rain! Just wish we could leave the wind out of the equation! I keep saying though, if we get a TC up in here it would just blow away our dead grass and trees so the ground was moist when we have to plant new stuff. Looking for the silver lining should this verify!

[South Texas Storms]

The CMC has been upgraded, but considering that there will be an upper low in proximity to the surface low, the 0Z and 12Z runs are reminding me of the days when the model would significantly develop every disturbance interacting with an upper low. Yeah, it isn't that concerning in my humble opinion.

But the fact that it has shown this for the past 2 runs is key.

[dwsqos2]

The CMC shows many storms many consecutive runs that never verify. A storm could certainly form, but I'm not certain a CMC genesis prog says much at all.

[ROCK]

The CMC has been upgraded, but considering that there will be an upper low in proximity to the surface low, the 0Z and 12Z runs are reminding me of the days when the model would significantly develop every disturbance interacting with an upper low. Yeah, it isn't that concerning in my humble opinion.

of course its not concerning...its just a model run out 5 days that shows a hurricane coming into Galveston....but yeah nope, nothing concerning here.....

[ROCK]

The CMC shows many storms many consecutive runs that never verify. A storm could certainly form, but I'm not certain a CMC genesis prog says much at all.

so you are going to discount the EURO, CMC , GFS, NOGAPS and all of the other models showing development?

[RachelAnna]

The CMC has been upgraded, but considering that there will be an upper low in proximity to the surface low, the 0Z and 12Z runs are reminding me of the days when the model would significantly develop every disturbance interacting with an upper low. Yeah, it isn't that concerning in my humble opinion.

of course its not concerning...its just a model run out 5 days that shows a hurricane coming into Galveston....but yeah nope, nothing concerning here.....

I know the models aren't great at intensity, but what cat is the CMC bringing it into Galveston at?

[ROCK]

The CMC has been upgraded, but considering that there will be an upper low in proximity to the surface low, the 0Z and 12Z runs are reminding me of the days when the model would significantly develop every disturbance interacting with an upper low. Yeah, it isn't that concerning in my humble opinion.

of course its not concerning...its just a model run out 5 days that shows a hurricane coming into Galveston....but yeah nope, nothing concerning here.....

I know the models aren't great at intensity, but what cat is the CMC bringing it into Galveston at?

it intensified right up until landfall....hard to tell isobars but they tighten up a lot....going to the other CMC site and see if I can dig up a pressure...

[dwsqos2]

Actually, the 12Z Euro didn't really show a TC; well by hour 240 there was one in the extreme south BOC. So, it isn't a matter of discounting anything yet. It's just that the CMC all by its lonesome with a tightly wound tropical cyclone that appears to interact significantly with an upper low doesn't excite me.

[South Texas Storms]

Come on Rock, you gotta stay up just 30 more mins for the Euro. We only really gotta watch the first half of the run anyway. I don't wanna be the only one up for it.

Once again, tonight's 0z Euro run initializes the 850mb vorticity max better than tonight's 0z GFS run.

[ROCK]

the CMC site shows a 997 low into Freeport then inland then gets pushed back SW along the coast.....might be a cat 1 or a strong TS....

[SEASON_CANCELED]

CMC is crap! I might aswell make swirls in my bathtub and see were they go.

[RachelAnna]

the CMC site shows a 997 low into Freeport then inland then gets pushed back SW along the coast.....might be a cat 1 or a strong TS....

That's sort of what I was thinking. A TS would be a nice drought buster... It'll be interesting to see over the next 24 to 48 hours if more of the models trend the same way. Terrible to be so desperate for rain that you almost hope for a TS or at least some good tropical moisture! Although, it'd be nice if it didn't get pushed back SW...

[ROCK]

Come on Rock, you gotta stay up just 30 more mins for the Euro. We only really gotta watch the first half of the run anyway. I don't wanna be the only one up for it.

Once again, tonight's 0z Euro run initializes the 850mb vorticity max better than tonight's 0z GFS run.

on your own bro...I was waiting on the CMC...you have the bridge #1....

[southerngale]

Actually, the 12Z Euro didn't really show a TC; well by hour 240 there was one in the extreme south BOC. So, it isn't a matter of discounting anything yet. It's just that the CMC all by its lonesome with a tightly wound tropical cyclone that appears to interact significantly with an upper low doesn't excite me.

Please. While the 12z Euro didn't show much, previous runs showed "something" as have many other models. Varying intensities and locations (with weak steering currents), but a lot of models show some sort of development. NWS offices and meteorologists along the coast are talking about this possibility. Of course nothing is written in stone and with any luck, it will just be a nice rainmaker for Texas, but don't act like the CMC is all by its lonesome in development. That simply isn't true.

[Extratropical94]

Still at 10%

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL
OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[dwsqos2]

I didn't say that the CMC was all by its lonesome. I said that the CMC was all by it's lonesome in showing a tightly wound TC. Look at the 850 mb vorticity on the GFS and Euro, it's elongated; there's a 200 mb low to the system's west on the 0Z GFS. The GFS and Euro progs look like monsoon lows; the CMC looks like a legit tropical cyclone. And I've seen the CMC do that time and again with systems interacting with upper lows.

I'm not saying there won't be a storm, but the CMC kind of is by its lonesome in its depiction of the system.

[ROCK]

72hr Euro......similar to the CMC.....almost identical....
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

[ROCK]

STS I stayed up for you and Southerngale....