Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[Turtle]

All of the links from the raleigh site show a black box that says remote linking disabled and if posting on a forum to please upload to an image sharing site, etc. Not sure why you can see it, you must really be special!

Maybe they are members at the americanwx forum. I know you have to register to view pictures there, and it looks like the pictures are from there.

[ROCK]

see a 995MB in there so slowly gaining some muscle....but probably still a strong TS at this point....looks to be heading to LA for a 2nd landfall....

[South Texas Storms]

see a 995MB in there so slowly gaining some muscle....but probably still a strong TS at this point....looks to be heading to LA for a 2nd landfall....

Yeah looks like it but this is still 8 days away on the Euro. Still plenty of time for it to change.

[ROCK]

see a 995MB in there so slowly gaining some muscle....but probably still a strong TS at this point....looks to be heading to LA for a 2nd landfall....

Yeah looks like it but this is still 8 days away on the Euro. Still plenty of time for it to change.

yeah you start getting into 192 and beyond with the EURO its not that good....better than the GFS though...

[BigB0882]

Interesting run from the sounds of it. I know the 2nd landfall may be 8 days away but this all gets started very shortly, in less than 5, right? This could be a really fun storm to watch!

[South Texas Storms]

see a 995MB in there so slowly gaining some muscle....but probably still a strong TS at this point....looks to be heading to LA for a 2nd landfall....

Yeah looks like it but this is still 8 days away on the Euro. Still plenty of time for it to change.

yeah you start getting into 192 and beyond with the EURO its not that good....better than the GFS though...

Yep. It's better than the GFS at all times. Wow 192 hour Euro back up into Houston. Drought buster indeed if this run verified.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

[southerngale]

ROCK - for most people, an image from Raleigh Weather comes up saying not to hotlink and that you need to save and upload the image if trying to post to a blog or message board. I could see all but one of your images, but some people can't see them at all. Anyway, I've uploaded 72h - 192h so far.

Coming back to the NW GOM at 192 hours... really? O.o


0z Euro @ 72 hours






0z Euro @ 96 hours






0z Euro @ 120 hours






0z Euro @ 144 hours






0z Euro @ 168 hours






0z Euro @ 192 hours

[ROCK]

192hr bottom is dropping out......deepening now....very close to upper texas coast...992MB

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

[ROCK]

thanks SG.....I need to learn how to do that,,,,

[South Texas Storms]

192hr bottom is dropping out......deepening now....very close to upper texas coast...992MB

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

See Rock, aren't you glad you stayed up for the Euro with me?

[ROCK]

216 into galveston as a hurricane....ouch

[maxintensity]

yeh more impressive deepening at the end towards landfall. Takes awhile for it to really tighten up. One would think if euro had the GFS track and it went over the central gulf the bottom would fall out.

[ROCK]

192hr bottom is dropping out......deepening now....very close to upper texas coast...992MB

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

See Rock, aren't you glad you stayed up for the Euro with me?

STS I will never doubt you again....

[southerngale]

thanks SG.....I need to learn how to do that,,,,

It's easy. Remind me to show you when it's earlier one night.

[South Texas Storms]

Crazy run for tonight's Euro. Much more believable than tonight's GFS run imo. It's very possible that TX could have 2 landfalls from this system.

[southerngale]

0z Euro @ 216 hours






0z Euro @ 240 hours

[ROCK]

the 2nd landfall looks like 989MB easily CAT 1 intensity.....sort of a weird run though....

[ROCK]

thanks SG.....I need to learn how to do that,,,,

It's easy. Remind me to show you when it's earlier one night.

thanks SG....I will take you up on that...

[BigB0882]

Obviously steering currents are crazy, I am not sure how any model can be expected to nail it with weak steering, how do you predict a lack of something? Makes things a lot harder with a much bigger margin of error, I suspect. If this track was about right but it gets further out into the Gulf we could have a very strong hurricane.

[bamajammer4eva]

How does it move from crawling over TX to jumping to East LA moving into MS by H 240?

Edit I just looped it and it looks like a glitch to jump that far east in one frame