Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[BigB0882]

If that move East happened before it made landfall then watch out. Gonna have to watch this more closely than I thought. This is the most bullish run for the Euro so far, isn't it? To think we could be dealing with this for 5 days!?

[southerngale]

It's not a glitch. The Euro frames are in 24 hour increments, unlike other models.

[bamajammer4eva]

It's not a glitch. The Euro frames are in 24 hour increments, unlike other models.

Ahh forgot about that. Makes more sense then.

[BigB0882]

With better model support (as in getting more bullish) I bet we see an invest tomorrow. Anyone else agree?

[southerngale]

With better model support (as in getting more bullish) I bet we see an invest tomorrow. Anyone else agree?

Yeah, I think so too, if convection persists as well.

[caneman]

I would remind folks to watch all models and take a blend as that is always far more accurate. I don't believe Euro was that great with Irene. Early on it jumps from one solution to another. Perhaps we could just have a Euro lovers thread so I and others don't have to waste our time with the hype.

[bamajammer4eva]

72H UKMET shows CCW winds strengthening over the Western Gulf but NO LP Center on the surface map

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ukmo&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=uv10&HH=72&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

00Z 144H UKMET Shows LP in same place as one would expect to find a surface LP @ 72H based on the winds

[southerngale]

I would remind folks to watch all models and take a blend as that is always far more accurate. I don't believe Euro was that great with Irene. Early on it jumps from one solution to another. Perhaps we could just have a Euro lovers thread so I and others don't have to waste our time with the hype.

Most of us think this run is pretty crazy and I can't speak for anyone else, but I've been watching all of the models, hoping for some much needed rain to come my way. I also know that the models are all over the place and who has a clue which one, if any of them, will be right? This is the one that just came out, so it's the one being talked about. I don't know if anyone who was posting likes the Euro over other models anyway, nor do I care. Most people already know to watch for trends and look for a consensus. We're not starting another thread because you don't like the Euro. That's absurd.

[caneman]

I would remind folks to watch all models and take a blend as that is always far more accurate. I don't believe Euro was that great with Irene. Early on it jumps from one solution to another. Perhaps we could just have a Euro lovers thread so I and others don't have to waste our time with the hype.

Most of us think this run is pretty crazy and I can't speak for anyone else, but I've been watching all of the models, hoping for some much needed rain to come my way. I also know that the models are all over the place and who has a clue which one, if any of them, will be right? This is the one that just came out, so it's the one being talked about. I don't know if anyone who was posting likes the Euro over other models anyway, nor do I care. Most people already know to watch for trends and look for a consensus. We're not starting another thread because you don't like the Euro. That's absurd.

Euro is all over the place (so for certain readers to act like it knows is completely false). Do what you wish. I rarely visit your site any more because of the absurdity/hypeyou allow to run rampant with King Euro talk, etc (esp. with one or two posters)... It has become a joke and is very misleading esp. for a novice.

[southerngale]

Euro is all over the place (so for certain readers to act like it knows is completely false). Do what you wish. I rarely visit your site any more because of the absurdity/hypeyou allow to run rampant with King Euro talk, etc (esp. with one or two posters)... It has become a joke and is very misleading esp. for a novice.

It's been mentioned numerous times that all of the models are all over the place. Posting model runs (of many different models as they come out) in a thread about a possible developing system is neither absurd or hype. This is the Talkin' Tropics forum. We talk tropics. I don't even know what you're talking about ("run rampant with King Euro talk"). The model just came out and it was a very bizarre run IMO, but it also brought what appeared to me to be a good bit of rain to the deserts of coastal Texas. So yeah... maybe a little excitement while dreaming of puddles. We're literally going up in flames over here. I don't get your gripe, but whatever. Back to the disturbance...

[pwrdog]

I would remind folks to watch all models and take a blend as that is always far more accurate. I don't believe Euro was that great with Irene. Early on it jumps from one solution to another. Perhaps we could just have a Euro lovers thread so I and others don't have to waste our time with the hype.

Most of us think this run is pretty crazy and I can't speak for anyone else, but I've been watching all of the models, hoping for some much needed rain to come my way. I also know that the models are all over the place and who has a clue which one, if any of them, will be right? This is the one that just came out, so it's the one being talked about. I don't know if anyone who was posting likes the Euro over other models anyway, nor do I care. Most people already know to watch for trends and look for a consensus. We're not starting another thread because you don't like the Euro. That's absurd.

Euro is all over the place (so for certain readers to act like it knows is completely false). Do what you wish. I rarely visit your site any more because of the absurdity/hypeyou allow to run rampant with King Euro talk, etc (esp. with one or two posters)... It has become a joke and is very misleading esp. for a novice.

I'm pretty sure most know these are just early models runs for a storm that has not even began to develope any structure yet.

The Euro has been showing the storm nearing texas and moving south along the coast for a few days = Some consistency.

The GFS is the model that has been all over the place... Texas to Florida so far= No consistency at all.

There is just not much to know yet.

[caneman]

Euro is all over the place (so for certain readers to act like it knows is completely false). Do what you wish. I rarely visit your site any more because of the absurdity/hypeyou allow to run rampant with King Euro talk, etc (esp. with one or two posters)... It has become a joke and is very misleading esp. for a novice.

It's been mentioned numerous times that all of the models are all over the place. Posting model runs (of many different models as they come out) in a thread about a possible developing system is neither absurd or hype. This is the Talkin' Tropics forum. We talk tropics. I don't even know what you're talking about ("run rampant with King Euro talk"). The model just came out and it was a very bizarre run IMO, but it also brought what appeared to me to be a good bit of rain to the deserts of coastal Texas. So yeah... maybe a little excitement while dreaming of puddles. We're literally going up in flames over here. I don't get your gripe, but whatever. Back to the disturbance...

Southerngale, I hope Texas gets rain. They need it badly. I'm not talking about just this model run. If you follow comments closely (I'm sure you do) - storm after storm you will see that this board, for a couple of posters has become a EURO hype machine (i.e. it is the only that is accurate). This is misleading and false. You can shoot the messenger but you can't shoot the message should you choose to look into it. If not, I'll just continue to watch from afar and not interact. Anyhow, back to the system.

[caneman]

I'm pretty sure most know these are just early models runs for a storm that has not even began to develope any structure yet.....

The Euro has been showing the storm nearing texas and moving south along the coast for a few days.... Some consistency..

The GFS is the model that has been all over the place... Texas to Florida so far.. No consistency at all.

There is just not much to know yet..[/quote]

Far to early. Euro has no consistency either. Don't mind the model discussion. But I highly doubt with the set up that any model will nail this just right. Looking for consistency and agreement and thus far I see none, other than hopefully some rain for Texas.

[caneman]

Surprised this isn't higher than 10%. It's getting the look, lots of popcorn convection, model support, etc..

[pwrdog]

I'm pretty sure most know these are just early models runs for a storm that has not even began to develope any structure yet.....

The Euro has been showing the storm nearing texas and moving south along the coast for a few days.... Some consistency..

The GFS is the model that has been all over the place... Texas to Florida so far.. No consistency at all.

There is just not much to know yet..

Far to early. Euro has no consistency either. Don't mind the model discussion. But I highly doubt with the set up that any model will nail this just right. Looking for consistency and agreement and thus far I see none, other than hopefully some rain for Texas.[/quote]

Of course it's too early.. There is no storm yet and weak steering even if there was one..

The Euro points to Texas for 2 days.

The Nam points to Texas for 2 days.

The GFS points all over the Gulf for 2 days..

That is some consistency with the Euro and Nam and none for the GFS at all.. Does that mean anything? Who knows!

Of course it's too earlyOf course it's too early.

[caneman]

You missed a couple models that take it to Louisiiana and that Euro had it going into Mexico, then Texas, then Texas and back out. Zip, zilch on consistency. Wait and see.

[bamajammer4eva]

NWS Birmingham's thoughts on Gulf low: disregard the GFS (For now)

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT I HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR THE LAST FEW MORNINGS BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE BY FRIDAY. CURRENTLY BEING SEEN AS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EASTWARD
INTO CUBA...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE LACK OF AMPLIFICATION OF A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COUNTRY TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF OUR FORECAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SHOULD KEEP THIS TROPICAL FEATURE IN
THE GULF FOR NOW...BUT BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY IN SOLUTION. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...AND I AM INCLINED TO
DISREGARD ITS SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL HOLD FIRM WITH LEANING
TOWARDS THE EURO AS IT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DRAGGING A
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR
BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW
THIS FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE FEATURE IN THE GULF. THINGS COULD
GET HAIRY FOR SOMEONE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

[pwrdog]

You missed a couple models that take it to Louisiiana and that Euro had it going into Mexico, then Texas, then Texas and back out. Zip, zilch on consistency. Wait and see.

I didn't miss any models.. your just nit picking..

The Euro has clustered to the west.

The GFS has had Texas and Florida.

Wait and see what? I'm sure nobody knows what will happen just yet... But that's not what we were talking about..

Never mind..

[pwrdog]

06z Nam showing a SE Tex landfall and then ??

Kinda like the Euro..

[southerngale]

06z Nam showing a SE Tex landfall and then ??

Kinda like the Euro..

Yeah. It goes inland in SE TX and then goes right back out over the GOM at the end of the run. I know it's the NAM, but some of the models are showing some wonky scenarios.

06z NAM loop:http://tinyurl.com/444khs6