ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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meriland23
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Re:

#961 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:12 am

fci wrote:Nice quibbling going on here for what is supposed to happen a week from now. :roll:

Bottom line is that it is fun to see what the models say 7-10 days from now and NO ONE is right or wrong at this point.

The interesting thing is, obviously; climatology says recurve will happen BUT there are models telling us to hold off on the slam-dunk of a recurve.
So, after we went through the saga of Irene; many are on edge and the fact that there is no complete consensus of a solid recurve means we still need to pay attention.

I'd still bet on a recurve but nothing is absolute with the tropics as we have all learned time and time again.


Seems like people are either assuming a curve way out past NS without sniffing the usa, or due west hitting florida or even points south. I am somewhere in the middle on that. I think it will curve, but much later than expected, ending up pulling a Irene track, that is just my assumption though.
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#962 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:36 am

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#963 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:47 am

Image

Showing signs of an inner core.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#964 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 31, 2011 3:15 am

Please remember this is the model thread and should be limited to discussion of model runs for Katia. The Katia discussion thread is here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111658
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#965 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 3:15 am

Wanna show you guys something I noticed.

These are images of the GFS models run at both 08/30 12z & 08/31 00z. The forecast as you can see, is the same day and time. (sept 9 00z)
Notice that they are favoring a more NW track versus yesterdays run. Looks like NS and possibly Maine?

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#966 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 31, 2011 3:43 am

00z HWRF and 00Z Canadian (Smaller)

Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#967 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:33 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:00z HWRF and 00Z Canadian (Smaller)


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/691/unleddad.jpg/][img]http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/6668/unleddad.jpg


Wow, both display a very definitive curve to the WSW.. hmm (scratches chin) what cha plannin' Katia?
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rainstorm

#968 Postby rainstorm » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:38 am

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Re: Re:

#969 Postby Preppie » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:43 am

After what we just went through, let me say I would much rather be prepared for the worst and not get it than think oh this is nothing and get the worst. We even prepared to the best we could for Irene but our best wasn't enough. Thank God and all those wonderful power crews who got our power back on this evening. You can bet I'm watching Katia like a hawk. I dont care how far away it is.... it's no far enough away as far as I am concerned. I'm tired and worn out from Irene not in the mood to deal with Katia but am already starting to get ready just in case. Lost all of our food in fridge and freezer but gonna just replace can goods until I see what Katia has planned and then will rethink my shopping.

I do want to give a big thumbs up for all those men and women who are working so hard to restore power to everyone. It is much appreciated. We were without power for 2 weeks with Isabel and only 4 days with Irene so much faster even though in our area we had more damage this time in my opinion. Power lines down up and down the road in our area. Scary!!!!

Carol


Carol, my mind works the same way. We don't have much in the freezer right now, spaces are filled with ice packs and some jugs of frozen, distilled water. At this time of year I don't buy more than about a week's worth of perishables. I'll loosen up after hurricane season is over. Very simply, it's prudent to keep an eye on the Atlantic when you live on or near the east or Gulf coasts. I hate surprises!
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#970 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:47 am

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Re:

#971 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:50 am



If that model came true (IF) what would happen to the two intersecting tropical storms? Would they intertwine? Or deflect off eachother.
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rainstorm

#972 Postby rainstorm » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:54 am

im going to assume that cant really happen but if it did i would think katia might get pulled further nw into new england.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#973 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:56 am

meriland23 wrote:
abajan wrote:No major changes: Still misses islands (not so sure about Bermuda though).
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/6672/201108302139.png


Question, and I am really curious. Does anyone have a image like this but for Irene when it was still over a week away? I would like to see how accurate these models were this far out. I kind of find it baffling that local forecasters are already claiming we are in the clear for this.. what will most likely be, a massive hurricane...over 10 days out. In other model runs, it shows a more westward turn, some favor it overcoming the 70W mark and not making that massive turn.
Anyway, like I said before this rant in case you forgot lol, anyone have those models of irene 136 or more hrs before landfall?
Intensity forecasts are harder to make than predicting where systems are likely to go. Baffling.
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Re: Re:

#974 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:00 am

Preppie wrote:
Lost all of our food in fridge and freezer but gonna just replace can goods until I see what Katia has planned and then will rethink my shopping.



We don't have much in the freezer right now, spaces are filled with ice packs and some jugs of frozen, distilled water. At this time of year I don't buy more than about a week's worth of perishables.



You know there really isn't much reason for that to happen any more. These days a decent generator can be had for $500 or so that will power a refrigerator and freezer. Go a little bigger and you can add a TV and a couple of lights, a charger or two for batteries, cell phones, even a laptop computer. You don't have to run it full time either, maybe two or three hours a day will keep a refrigerator and freezer cold. I always keep about 15-20 gallons of gas on hand for mowers and yard tools, so I always have some for the generator. I got through an eleven day outage from an ice storm with no loss of any food.

Planning ahead saves a world of discomfort when outages strike.
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rainstorm

#975 Postby rainstorm » Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:09 am

one thing though. there is a trough along the east coast that might pull lee ne.. but katia seems too close.
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#976 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:12 am

T.S. Katia flying across eastern Atlantic

M. Ressler & Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel

Aug 31, 2011 4:40 am ET


Tropics Watch:
- Tropical Storm Katia continues to steadily strengthen as it flies across the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

- Katia is moving toward the west at 21 mph, which is a fast speed for a system in the deep tropics.

- Katia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane Friday or Saturday.

- The forecast continues to call for Katia moving to the north of the Leeward Islands over the weekend.

- Interests in the Leeward Islands should check back for future updates on Katia.
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#977 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:18 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2011

...KATIA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#978 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:58 am

Still appears to be little threat to the NE Caribbean. Should pass 200-300 miles to the northeast. Unlikely it will threaten the eastern U.S., either, though that's just a little bit less certain.
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Re: Re:

#979 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Aug 31, 2011 7:00 am

meriland23 wrote:


If that model came true (IF) what would happen to the two intersecting tropical storms? Would they intertwine? Or deflect off eachother.


lots of different things could happen but it usually weakens both storms...and of course we get to throw out another favorite S2K word...Fujiwhara!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#980 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 31, 2011 7:01 am

wxman57 wrote:Still appears to be little threat to the NE Caribbean. Should pass 200-300 miles to the northeast. Unlikely it will threaten the eastern U.S., either, though that's just a little bit less certain.


What keeps the CONUS a little bit less certain?
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