ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Where's the EURO?

You guys are slacking. I'd post it but I'm on my phone.

[meriland23]

Still appears to be little threat to the NE Caribbean. Should pass 200-300 miles to the northeast. Unlikely it will threaten the eastern U.S., either, though that's just a little bit less certain.

What keeps the CONUS a little bit less certain?

Or in other words, more favorable than before.

[tolakram]

Latest Visible:

[jhpigott]

Where's the EURO?

You guys are slacking. I'd post it but I'm on my phone.

and for that matter the 06z GFS?

[tolakram]

A good model page is here: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

and for the GFS here: http://instantweathermaps.com/

[jhpigott]

Still appears to be little threat to the NE Caribbean. Should pass 200-300 miles to the northeast. Unlikely it will threaten the eastern U.S., either, though that's just a little bit less certain.

What keeps the CONUS a little bit less certain?

Maybe WXman57 is referring to the latest HRWF and CMC which show a healthy bend back to the west as Katia passes north of NE Caribbean? (see model thread)

[TheBurn]

RGB / Natural Color and MPE

[gatorcane]

Latest spaghetti plot, there are a few models showing a bend back to the west now. That is interesting. We will have to watch if this is a trend or not:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Aric Dunn]

She is getting very close to a hurricane eyewall forming.

[gatorcane]

Still appears to be little threat to the NE Caribbean. Should pass 200-300 miles to the northeast. Unlikely it will threaten the eastern U.S., either, though that's just a little bit less certain.

What keeps the CONUS a little bit less certain?

Maybe WXman57 is referring to the latest HRWF and CMC which show a healthy bend back to the west as Katia passes north of NE Caribbean? (see model thread)

There is a little uncertainty as far as an East Coast of U.S. impact because it looks like a few model runs overnight have shown a bend to the west at the end (CMC, BAMS, HWRF, and some of the GFS ensembles). We will have to watch if there is a trend here or not especially with the other models such as the ECMWF and GFS.

Majority are still showing a recurve well east of the US mainland though.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 60 kt for the advisory based on the latest structure.

[Aric Dunn]

I see the 00z guidance is not in agreement much anymore.. I imagine because of its fast pace the over the last day or so.

[terrapintransit]

Latest spaghetti plot, there are a few models showing a bend back to the west now. That is interesting. We will have to watch if this is a trend or not:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Yes...getting interesting indeed

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... smodel.gif

[stewart715]

Latest computer models.

[stewart715]

Something tells me GFS is off on this one (straying way too far north early on). I still think this has a very good chance to (and likely will) stray back east out to sea or possible NS as a TS. However, that being said, I think the ensembles don't necessarily perform well that far out and we could be in for a very big surprise. She's already surprised us with growth and accelerated ground speed. Who know's what could happen next.

[LeeNess87]

Something tells me GFS is off on this one (straying way too far north early on). I still think this has a very good chance to (and likely will) stray back east out to sea or possible NS as a TS. However, that being said, I think the ensembles don't necessarily perform well that far out and we could be in for a very big surprise. She's already surprised us with growth and accelerated ground speed. Who know's what could happen next.

[img]http://cl.ly/1K0G1v0U3R3Q3T1D3W3u/Screen_Shot_2011-08-31_at_9.17.04_AM.png[/ig]

I can see where the GFS could be a little too far east. I agree. I hope Katia doesn't become annular...although beautiful, could be hard to predict!

[stewart715]

I can see where the GFS could be a little too far east. I agree. I hope Katia doesn't become annular...although beautiful, could be hard to predict!

Unfortunately, I think she might be heading that way. As unusual as they are, so has Katia been from the start, IMO.

[CaneCurious]

With the looks of the models bending back west, does anyone think that Katia could cross FL into the GOM like Andrew or that other infamous K storm?

[OuterBanker]

OK enough already. We can not take the stress of even a hint of Katia. Today I booked two tickets to Judy Collins concert on Sept 9 (my 60th) in Norfolk. Yes, I'm sure you Gen X and Y are asking who is Judy Collins? Also because the local mets last night said that all models were taking her out to sea and it was nothing to worry about. I feel better already

[stewart715]

With the looks of the models bending back west, does anyone think that Katia could cross FL into the GOM like Andrew or that other infamous K storm?

Katia could head over there, although this is beginning to remind me alot of Isabel.