ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Something tells me GFS is off on this one (straying way too far north early on). I still think this has a very good chance to (and likely will) stray back east out to sea or possible NS as a TS. However, that being said, I think the ensembles don't necessarily perform well that far out and we could be in for a very big surprise. She's already surprised us with growth and accelerated ground speed. Who know's what could happen next.

[img]http://cl.ly/1K0G1v0U3R3Q3T1D3W3u/Screen_Shot_2011-08-31_at_9.17.04_AM.png[/ig]

I can see where the GFS could be a little too far east. I agree. I hope Katia doesn't become annular...although beautiful, could be hard to predict!

They are all a little to a lot off still past 3 days. they are all having a hard time with that area of low pressure developing off the coast of NC right now. so depending on how long that is there and how strong will determine how early or late she turns.

[Aric Dunn]

With the looks of the models bending back west, does anyone think that Katia could cross FL into the GOM like Andrew or that other infamous K storm?

well the Gulf might be a stretch but a couple of the ensemble members yesterday and again today showed her missing everything and being pushed back west towards Florida and the SE

[stewart715]

Something tells me GFS is off on this one (straying way too far north early on). I still think this has a very good chance to (and likely will) stray back east out to sea or possible NS as a TS. However, that being said, I think the ensembles don't necessarily perform well that far out and we could be in for a very big surprise. She's already surprised us with growth and accelerated ground speed. Who know's what could happen next.

[img]http://cl.ly/1K0G1v0U3R3Q3T1D3W3u/Screen_Shot_2011-08-31_at_9.17.04_AM.png[/ig]

I can see where the GFS could be a little too far east. I agree. I hope Katia doesn't become annular...although beautiful, could be hard to predict!

They are all a little to a lot off still past 3 days. they are all having a hard time with that area of low pressure developing off the coast of NC right now. so depending on how long that is there and how strong will determine how early or late she turns.

So you're saying she will turn, just a matter of when? Could this be a threat to the northeast? That's impossible, again, right?

[terrapintransit]

So you're saying she will turn, just a matter of when? Could this be a threat to the northeast? That's impossible, again, right?

Any scenario is possible at this point...

[Aric Dunn]

Sure is a awful lot of ridging building in north of her and more off the west... may see a more westerly track today. actually couple days ago most of the models showed a quick bend back to the west just around this time.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 3java.html

[CrazyC83]

So you're saying she will turn, just a matter of when? Could this be a threat to the northeast? That's impossible, again, right?

NOTHING is impossible at this point. It happened in 1954. If Katia hits the same spot Irene did, no reason to believe why not. But that is not until late next week. For now, it all depends on the first weakness in the ridge and whether or not it closes. Another wildcard is the Gulf low (potential future Lee?).

[CrazyC83]

If Katia ends up where Irene did, I see no reason why she cannot take a similar track unless the ridge builds over the coast. It all depends on the first weakness though - does it close or not? The Gulf low is also a wildcard in all this.

[WYNweather]

I can see where the GFS could be a little too far east. I agree. I hope Katia doesn't become annular...although beautiful, could be hard to predict!

Unfortunately, I think she might be heading that way. As unusual as they are, so has Katia been from the start, IMO.

Thanks for the home work. for those of us who are new.

Annular.=
"Because of this symmetry, these storms have also been
referred to as truck tires and doughnuts. This appearance
in satellite imagery can persist for days. Accompanying
this structure is a nearly constant intensity1 with an average
of 107.6 kt (1 kt 5 0.514 m s21). This characteristic
represents a potential source for large intensity
forecasting errors, which may be reduced by better identification
of annular hurricanes."

here is a link to the full paper

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articl ... arhurr.pdf

[Canelaw99]

Nope.SE Fl is *not* in play at the end of next week, thank you. My daughter's birthday party is on the 10th. Hmph! Lol

(disclaimer: I'm not talking about anything scientific regarding track. I'm just gonna be one ticked off mama if it comes this way lol)

[ckiggins]

I am holding my breath because we are flying out of JFK on Thursday the 8th for a long-awaited 2-week cruise. I am hoping this comes nowhere near NY this time around and from what I am seeing on the ensemble models for the most part shows a miss. I'm just your average citizen, though, so I have no real idea what I'm looking at...I just like where the lines go.

[floridasun78]

i been reading what people been saying last few days here what i have say look at lrene first few days models have it going toward florida all models were all together but few days later their started go up coast so my point is yes their weakness in high off usa coast but you know weather change per day yes i like to say this no worry to our coast line after irene mess she left behind but not time say let watch gulf not katia so let see how models do next few days take from their

[Gustywind]

31/1145 UTC 14.0N 39.7W T3.5/3.5 KATIA

[Aric Dunn]

still 65mph and wnw at 21 as of 11AM

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 31 2011

...KATIA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 40.8W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... AND
KATIA WILL PROBABLY BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 31 2011

KATIA REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISTINCT
BANDING FEATURES AND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. AT THE MOMENT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THE DRY AIR ADJACENT TO THE STORM IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AT
LEAST FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATIA COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS.

KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/18
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF
THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECELERATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS KATIA APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 14.2N 40.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.7N 43.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 15.4N 46.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.2N 48.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.3N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 54.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 23.5N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HurricaneRobert]

What role would future Lee have in Katia's direction? If it does reemerge along the east coast, would the hurricane be drawn to the west?

[CrazyC83]

If Katia can close that eye off, could she rapidly intensify or even bomb out?

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye , any news from the Best Track?

[LeeNess87]

Would like to see some rain in TX. No one wants the devestation of a TC but a little rain would be nice! Hoping that area of LP will develop into something, just not a destructible something!! But back to Katia...please please pleaseeeeeee recurve Miss Katia! I too have a long awaited vacation planned and must fly out of JFK next week to Carib.


BTW, love all the knowledge I'm gaining from all of you! Learning a lot in just a few days time

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye , any news from the Best Track?

I was off-line for most of the morning,but with the 11 AM advisory out,the 12z best track is not needed at this point.

[HurricaneWarning92]

http://cl.ly/1K0G1v0U3R3Q3T1D3W3u/Screen_Shot_2011-08-31_at_9.17.04_AM.png

Latest computer models.

Well well well, now the GFS is the only one not showing a wnw track at the end. I believe the GFDL was on the same boat as the GFS yesterday but it changed now...