ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[stewart715]

A lot of where Katia goes depends on what happens on the East Pacific with the two tropical disturbances out there. It can actually draw Lee and Katia to meet and join in the CONUS northeast. If those tropical disturbances in the East Pacific push further east, it will push Katia out to sea and keep Lee in the south, maybe Texas/Mexico. But for the time being, it seems as though Lee will hover there in the GOM and strengthen. The CONUS northeast could be seeing additional flooding 10 days from now.

A lot can happen and there are WAY too may variables when it comes to Lee and Katia, which is why I think models at this are pointless -- the East Pacific is as unpredictable as the Atlantic, and both can change each other's behavior tremendously.

[MGC]

Katia should reach hurricane intensity later today if the current strengthening trend continues. Katia looks to be a large tropical cyclone. Yep, looks like that ULL is going to cause some shear over the cyclone in a few days.....MGC

[gatorcane]

Looking at the BAMs, GFDL, HWRF, CMC, and ECMWF ensembles makes me think we may see the GFS and ECMWF operations shift some west today after 120 hours in the 12Z runs.

[stewart715]

Latest XTRP brings Katia into GOM. Also, shows more westerly models.



Updated with grid.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not saying the models won't shift west, but remember that a lot of the ensembles had Irene in the Gulf and look what happened. That being said, Katia definitely bears watching, and thankfully we have a while to watch her.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the BAMs, GFDL, HWRF, CMC, and ECMWF ensembles makes me think we may see the GFS and ECMWF operations shift some west today after 120 hours in the 12Z runs.

yeah with this continued forward speed the timing of the trough that swings across the eastern us may be well back in the mid west now by the time she gets north of the islands and may get under some of the ridging that pushes of the east coast prior to the arrival of the trough. like the Nogaps was showing yesterday and now the GFDL and couple of the ensemble members. so depending on the current low developing of the NC coast katia may end up getting farther west if this quick pace goes longer than expected.

and always got to watch for the ridge pumping..

[chris_fit]

Latest XTRP brings Katia into GOM. Also, shows more westerly models.

Just want to let you and everyone know that XTRP is not a model - It's simply an extrapolation of it's current heading.

[tolakram]

Latest XTRP brings Katia into GOM. Also, shows more westerly models.

http://cl.ly/3p3T272C2m1F3b2x3C2G/Scree ... .22_AM.png

Updated with grid.

XTRP is simply a continuation of the current motion, extrapolation. The other one that will get you is climatology ... forget the name off the top of my head, but this model basically reviews climatology records for the location to 'predict' the track.

[Extratropical94]

Latest ADT line says:
2011AUG31 144500 3.4 995.2/ +0.0 / 53.0 3.4 3.7 5.6 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -13.86 -59.94 EYE 25 IR 13.59 40.84 COMBO

[Aric Dunn]

eye starting to show its self again....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/f ... p-rgb.html


also looks like its heading a little more on a 280 heading over the last couple hours... which would not surprise me given the strong ridging building in north of it..

loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

[Trishasmom]

Lost all of our food in fridge and freezer but gonna just replace can goods until I see what Katia has planned and then will rethink my shopping.

We don't have much in the freezer right now, spaces are filled with ice packs and some jugs of frozen, distilled water. At this time of year I don't buy more than about a week's worth of perishables.

You know there really isn't much reason for that to happen any more. These days a decent generator can be had for $500 or so that will power a refrigerator and freezer. Go a little bigger and you can add a TV and a couple of lights, a charger or two for batteries, cell phones, even a laptop computer. You don't have to run it full time either, maybe two or three hours a day will keep a refrigerator and freezer cold. I always keep about 15-20 gallons of gas on hand for mowers and yard tools, so I always have some for the generator. I got through an eleven day outage from an ice storm with no loss of any food.

Planning ahead saves a world of discomfort when outages strike.

And where do you propose we get the money to buy this? If you are willing to donate the money then we will be most happy to buy a generator. That, in my opinion was a tad bit arrogant to make a comment like that. Not everyone is in the position to buy a generator.

[stewart715]

Latest XTRP brings Katia into GOM. Also, shows more westerly models.

http://cl.ly/3p3T272C2m1F3b2x3C2G/Scree ... .22_AM.png

Updated with grid.

XTRP is simply a continuation of the current motion, extrapolation. The other one that will get you is climatology ... forget the name off the top of my head, but this model basically reviews climatology records for the location to 'predict' the track.

I figured that's what it did -- still new to this stuff.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is running.

[Weather Watcher]

To me it looks like dry air is keeping it from developing from what I see on wunderground satellite.

[jhpigott]

GFS is running.

Let's see if it starts bending west at the end of the run like the recent CMC, HRWF and some of the esemble members did

[stewart715]

To me it looks like dry air is keeping it from developing from what I see on wunderground satellite.

Air is a bit dry but conditions are pretty good for formation.

[Jevo]

12z GFS Initialized (will update w/ 24 hour fixes unless something extraordinary)



12z GFS +48

[wxman57]

Still looks like it's not going to have any significant impact on the NE Caribbean, and it will probably recurve well east of the U.S.

[ckiggins]

wxman57, even if it does recurve well east of the US, could the outer fringes of the storm still impact the coast with rain, strong winds, etc? Or are you saying even the outflow could be off the coast entirely?

[stewart715]

Eye formation: