Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[Vortex]

Both Visible/Radar this afternoon indicating things coming together over the SE Gulf...While no clearly defined LLC is evident YET it's on its way...My thinking is we will have an invest later today/evening..Folks along the central gulf coast need to pay close attention..IMO, New orleans to Pensacola look to be the higher threat regions after examaining the synoptics, guidance, and location of suspect area...

[cycloneye]

There definately appears to be a low forming in this general area. starting to see some westerly flow far to the south and ne flow to the west of the circle. not likely at the surface except for the strong southerly flow and east. its heading off to NW like the 12z guidance say it should. also 12z guidance develops it within 36 hours. earlier than previous runs..

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/523/rgbn.jpg

It means invest is not far in time from being up.

[ROCK]

easy now...its just the 12z GFS....

if I recall the GFS had IRENE into FL for about 15 runs in a row...

the GFS did not see Arlene or Don in the carib...

the GFS still insistant of taking KAT up and out regardless of the EURO and CMC showing her missing the weakness and bending back west in the long range....

just a few points to be made about the GFS and its difficulties this year. Lets see what the EURO and CMC does in the next few hours. As far as the NOGAPS... everyone knows its history...

[Vortex]

Were I estimate the developing LLC..


24.89° N Longitude= 85.51° W

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm nogaps... very strong ridging fills in

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

I think we are getting an idea that this will be a very slow moving system in the Gulf, which is why the models have this looping and stalling and what not.

[Tireman4]

Wednesday-Saturday weather briefings from NWS-HGX:

video - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing audio - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

[HurricaneBelle]

This really is starting to look like Gabrielle 2001 redux; it developed in about the same area, and the early runs on that system had it going into the FL panhandle as well.

[Aric Dunn]

The rotation is easily seen

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

should be an invest today now that something is starting to organize.

[Vortex]

The rainfall totals are going to be very high and extended with this one..Also, LA may deal with several high tide cycles with a strong easterly fetch...Early september, high ocatane and favorable environmental conditions...may spin up quickly with high potential. I suspect Cantore will be on the move before to shortly...

[tolakram]

Live visible loop, speed up to see what appears to be a low developing.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

latest image, saved.

[tolakram]

Shear is rather high which is why development might be delayed.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[N2Storms]

I really don't care about getting a Tropical system but I definitely would like to get some rain out it...

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is rather high which is why development might be delayed.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

well for the most part it wont be able to really strengthen but right now the shear is what is aiding the convection and getting something going a the surface.

[underthwx]

Aric..or..anyone...the area of cloudiness in the Boc...is that area a possible point for LLc formation with this system?...






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric..or..anyone...the area of cloudiness in the Boc...is that area a possible point for LLc formation with this system?...






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yeah could. but likely would be absorbed in to the much larger area to the east. or just pushed inland into mexico

[txwxpirate]

Here is a portion of Dr Jeff Masters
http://www.weatherunderground.com

This wave is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The wave is slowly beginning to build an increased amount of heavy thunderstorms, and this process will accelerate on Thursday when the wave enters the Gulf of Mexico. By Friday, when the wave will be near the Louisiana or Texas coast, wind shear is expected to drop to low to moderate levels, and the wave may be able to organize into a tropical depression. This process will likely take several days, and formation of a tropical depression is more likely Saturday or Sunday. NHC is giving the wave just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Regardless, this system will spread heavy rains to portions of the Gulf Coast by Friday, with the Upper Texas coast and the coast of Louisiana the most likely recipients of heavy rain. Strong onshore winds raising tides to 1 - 2 feet above normal are likely over Louisiana beginning on Friday, and coastal flood statements have been issued for the region. Three of our four top models for predicting tropical cyclone development forecast that a tropical depression will form this weekend or early next week, and I think it is at least 50% likely we will have Tropical Depression 13 on our hands by Monday

[HouTXmetro]

So is the consensus now that this will be an EGOM event? If so I'm totally BUMED... Texas can't take it.

[underthwx]

New Orleans has a coastal flood statement on thier Nws site....

.A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL AND THEN WESTERN GULF
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BY FRIDAY A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL START TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH LARGE DIURNAL TIDE RANGE WHICH COULD EXACERBATE
ANY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

check out the AFD for the rest...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[txwxpirate]

HoustonTXMetro - IF Doc Masters is correct, the bulk of the storm will be LA/Upper Tx coast - I'm sure Houston could get a drop of two...we'll see.