ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Recurve city folks with katia...Think the one to watch is the wave behind this system as the overall general pattern might suggest a threat to the caribbean and southeast.

[Aric Dunn]

Heres what I think with the GFS, its arguing with its ensembles and doesnt know whether to send it west or make it a fish, until that has more certianty the GFS is out to lunch

with this run I bet when the ensembles come out there will be more that are on a westerly track.

[BigA]

Recurve city folks with katia...Think the one to watch is the wave behind this system as the overall general pattern might suggest a threat to the caribbean and southeast.

Probably, but I feel less confident than I did when I woke up this morning. I wonder if a Felix 95 like track is possible, minus the stall off North Carolina.

Also, note how the next storm moves west without recurving early. If the pattern changes, there will be a 1-2 week window, IMHO, between about Sept 6 and Sept 18 for storms to form and move west before the fall pattern kicks in.

[Hurricaneman]

Heres what I think with the GFS, its arguing with its ensembles and doesnt know whether to send it west or make it a fish, until that has more certianty the GFS is out to lunch

with this run I bet when the ensembles come out there will be more that are on a westerly track.

as long as I have been watching the GFS, as slowdown on the GFS usually does argue for more of a west track as you said, so I think that the east coast is not off the hook just yet

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[fci]

[quote="alch97"]Why does this remind me of Andrew? Sure looks like the same path on the models. That would be a 1 in a million shot however....[/quote

I don't remember where I saw it but I believe all reminders of Andrew are forbidden on S2K.

OK, it's not really forbidden but I refuse to go there.......

[SouthFloridawx]

Why does this remind me of Andrew? Sure looks like the same path on the models. That would be a 1 in a million shot however....

Andrew was a little earlier and a little farther south...

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye , any news from the Best Track?

I was off-line for most of the morning,but with the 11 AM advisory out,the 12z best track is not needed at this point.

I was very busy too, but thanks for the info and especially your input . Let's wait and see (even if it's a bit too early to confirm...) if Katia continues to travel far away from us ... that will be excellent news . Anyway, we have plenty of time to watch it.

[BigA]

We all know the NOGAPS isn't great, but it is a piece of the puzzle, and it is way west in the 12Z run compared to previous. 180 hour coordinates: 25N 70W moving W/WNW

[Aric Dunn]

ut oh....... nogaps... west turn... then even more ridging builds NW of it at end of run... to bad it did not go farther ... WSW motion after that it looks like.. that is a big shift by the nogaps.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SouthFloridawx]

ut oh....... nogaps... west turn... then even more ridging builds NW of it at end of run... to bad it did not go farther ... WSW motion after that it looks like.. that is a big shift by the nogaps.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[alch97]

Why does this remind me of Andrew? Sure looks like the same path on the models. That would be a 1 in a million shot however....[/quote

I don't remember where I saw it but I believe all reminders of Andrew are forbidden on S2K.

OK, it's not really forbidden but I refuse to go there.......

I know. Tell me about it.....

[rainstorm]

looks like a close call. maybe katia will remain weak and head more west in the models. it does have to deal with a big trough to its nw.

[stewart715]

Will it recurve toward CONUS NE like Irene did?

[Aric Dunn]

12z CMC.. west motion again riding the 20n line.

[SouthFloridawx]

looks like a close call. maybe katia will remain weak and head more west in the models. it does have to deal with a big trough to its nw.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

ELSEWHERE TWO PROMINENT SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ONE EXTENDS FROM
30N44W TO 24N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N
BETWEEN 43W-48W. A SECOND TROUGH IS FROM 33N52W TO 25N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

[Aric Dunn]

She has to be a hurricane now.. the curved band has wrapped completely around the center and intermittent eye features keep popping out. actually as though she is about to start bombing out. with all the dry slots filling and overall CDO becoming more symmetrical.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[BigB0882]

Things are getting interesting. I havent paid much attention because I thought this was a certain fish. Now I don't know.

[SouthFloridawx]

The evolution of Katia during days 3-5 is going to greatly hinge on those two troughs in the above mentioned text from the disco. Shear values look high and that trough doesn't look like it's going anywhere anytime soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

She has to be a hurricane now.. the curved band has wrapped completely around the center and intermittent eye features keep popping out. actually as though she is about to start bombing out. with all the dry slots filling and overall CDO becoming more symmetrical.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

I actually have to disagree with you. It does still look well organized on vis, but IR doesnt look too pretty right now. After a couple hours it may be a different story though. I still wouldnt be at all surprised to see an upgrade at 5 or 11 tonight.

[stewart715]

This thing looks like it's gonna be an absolute animal. Any landfall could be catastrophic.