Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[Florida1118]

When does a system get an invest?

Whenever the NHC feels like it

[Aric Dunn]

When does a system get an invest?

Whenever the NHC feels like it

it should come later today.

[poof121]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311730 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 31 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z AUGUST TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--SUSPECT AREA IN CNTRL GULF
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 01/1630Z
D. 25.0N AND 90.0W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/ 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AT 02/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[Dean4Storms]

Couple points....... Appears this will develop further east more in the central Gulf instead of the western Gulf after seeing current sat. loops. This could mean an evolution with future track more in line with OP GFS as the front would more likely pick up the storm.
If it develops more westward toward TX I could see it missing the trough and sitting there more or less.
All future track will depend on these 2 locales after seeing the position of that trough next week.

[BigB0882]

With recon scheduled and this up to 30%, I imagine an invest will have to be coming today at some point but they don't need to be in a big rush, just by the end of the day.

[underthwx]

the lat. and long. on the rcon mission posted above...is that the area they focus or start on?..flights 1 @2 #D.D. 25.0N AND 90.0W/D. 25.5N AND 95.5W?







The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Stormcenter]

IMO as some have noted already there is something forming in SE GOM based on latest sat. loops.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[Pearl River]

Maybe some of the Pro's or Recon Experts can explain:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--SUSPECT AREA IN CNTRL GULF
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 01/1630Z
D. 25.0N AND 90.0W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/ 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT

I notice the first fix is 25.0N 90.0W and the next day 25.5N and 95.5W. Are they expecting the center to move that fast? I know it sound like a ridiculous question, but I always thought that's where they expect the circulation center to be when they fly into them. Thanks!!

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe some of the Pro's or Recon Experts can explain:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--SUSPECT AREA IN CNTRL GULF
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 01/1630Z
D. 25.0N AND 90.0W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/ 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT

I notice the first fix is 25.0N 90.0W and the next day 25.5N and 95.5W. Are they expecting the center to move that fast? I know it sound like a ridiculous question, but I always thought that's where they expect the circulation center to be when they fly into them. Thanks!!

notice the time difference. its nearly 18 hours later from the first to the second one.

[Clint_TX]

With the poor steering currents, I will be shocked if this isn't ultimately a landfalling hurricane...


****pay no attention to my ravings, I have no clue what I'm talking about****

[underthwx]

can someone illustrate those lat. and long. points from the recon plan...maybe on a current satellite image?....

[N2Storms]

[quote="Clint_TX"]With the poor steering currents, I will be shocked if this isn't ultimately a landfalling hurricane...


****pay no attention to my ravings, I have no clue what I'm talking about****[/quote]


I certainly don't wish a Hurricane on Texas or anyone for that matter but as badly as that area needs the rain, I pulling for you guys. We need rain here in the Panhandle also but our need is not nearly as extreme as the need is in Texas. Maybe with a little bit of luck this thing will be like a sprinkler and give everyone some much needed H2O...

[ROCK]

the 12Z CMC shows further north around the TX LA border then back SW into Texas....relax there will be rain.....The GFS has been a really bad joke all year, IMO...EURO coming....lets see what the KING has to say...

[Portastorm]

Yep ROCK ... the crazy Canadian landfalls a 1000mb low around the Sabine River at 72 hours and then pinwheels the low southwest paralleling the Texas coast. It would be a huge rainmaker for Texas. Looks like one of us Texas folks drew up the run!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[BigB0882]

LOL Rock, such an instigator!

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow:

Yep ROCK ... the crazy Canadian landfalls a 1000mb low around the Sabine River at 72 hours and then pinwheels the low southwest paralleling the Texas coast. It would be a huge rainmaker for Texas. Looks like one of us Texas folks drew up the run!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

the nogaps does the same. NAM tries to drop it SW but the run ends at 84 hours. that ridging is going be vary strong and a motion like that is not out of the question.

[wxman57]

Euro looks similar to Canadian (and NAM, though I hate to think the NAM might be right for once), taking it into the NW Gulf just south of Lake Charles by Friday morning. GFS is the outlier.

[ROCK]

:uarrow:

Yep ROCK ... the crazy Canadian landfalls a 1000mb low around the Sabine River at 72 hours and then pinwheels the low southwest paralleling the Texas coast. It would be a huge rainmaker for Texas. Looks like one of us Texas folks drew up the run!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

yeah...concerned that it gets back into the GOM and loops around ala EURO last night and hits us as a cat 1.....that would be a nightmare..all that water at once...

[KWT]

Should be an invest very soon given we now have a code Orange.

[BigB0882]

How far out are models showing the first landfall?