ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

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Macrocane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#141 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:04 pm

:eek: Impressive how all the global models (CMC, ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET and FIM are the ones I checked) are bullish with the intensity of the system in the 12z runs, and it's also impressive the different tracks they have, sure this will be a very difficult system to forecast intensity-wise and track-wise.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#142 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:04 pm

Macrocane wrote::eek: Impressive how all the global models (CMC, ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET and FIM are the ones I checked) are bullish with the intensity of the system in the 12z runs, and it's also impressive the different tracks they have, sure this will be a very difficult system to forecast intensity-wise and track-wise.


Macrocane, can I please have a link to the FIM model?
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#143 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:06 pm

18z GFS +72

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Re:

#144 Postby Shoshana » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:07 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:Gonna be nerve-wracking to watch developments.....trying not to get too excited.



I'm not getting excited at all. If it does turn into something I'd be surprised if Central Texas gets anything from it.

Hope I'm wrong tho~
Last edited by Shoshana on Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#145 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:08 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
ROCK wrote:well if you follow the CLIPER then the GFS is right on.... :lol:

personally you see the EURO in the short term 2 runs in a row depicting the same trek really hard to go against it....especially with all the GFS issues we have seen.....


To be fair Rock, the 12z Euro was very close to getting picked up by the trough. It even starts the process by moving east between 72 and 96 hours. The trough has more of an influence on it even more so than the 00z run. 12z Euro ensembles are split between taking it SW or NE.

What I can tell you is this one will be a Gulf system :wink:



yeah I saw the ensembles...I like poking at you.. :D ..BTW welcome back...You have been MIA.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#146 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:10 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Macrocane, can I please have a link to the FIM model?


Sometimes they run the model with different initial conditions and other parameters so I will give you two links:

Today the ran the FIMY: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fimy

But most of the times they run the FIM http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim
Last edited by Macrocane on Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#147 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:11 pm

84 hours..sitting over New Orleans

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#148 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:13 pm

ROCK wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
ROCK wrote:well if you follow the CLIPER then the GFS is right on.... :lol:

personally you see the EURO in the short term 2 runs in a row depicting the same trek really hard to go against it....especially with all the GFS issues we have seen.....


To be fair Rock, the 12z Euro was very close to getting picked up by the trough. It even starts the process by moving east between 72 and 96 hours. The trough has more of an influence on it even more so than the 00z run. 12z Euro ensembles are split between taking it SW or NE.

What I can tell you is this one will be a Gulf system :wink:



yeah I saw the ensembles...I like poking at you.. :D ..BTW welcome back...You have been MIA.... :lol:



It's what we do Rock :lol:


Thanks, just some personal things going on.
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#149 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:15 pm

12z GFS +96 (inland over LA)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#150 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:16 pm

Macrocane wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Macrocane, can I please have a link to the FIM model?


Sometimes they run the mdoels with different initial conditions and other parameters so I will give you two links:

Today the ran the FIMY: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fimy

But most of the times they run the FIM http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim



Thanks. That's why the FIM didn't run today. The FIMY ran today. Haha.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#151 Postby micktooth » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:16 pm

[quote="Ivanhater"]84 hours..sitting over New Orleans

That might lead to a possible flooding scenario. I remember my house in NOLA almost flooding during Allison which was sitting near Houston.

The above post is not official nor scientific, please refer to NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#152 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:16 pm

sitting over NO is the same as the 12Z run.....so it comes down to what model camp your in.....one that desperately needs rain in Texas or one that floods NO.... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#153 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:17 pm

Still sitting near Nola at 108 hours....that would be bad

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#154 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:18 pm

Reminds me of Tropical Storm Frances in 1998.

Tropical Storm Frances (1998)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... s1998.html

Frances did move west-southwest and made landfall near Rockport as a tropical storm. Heavy rain throughout Texas and Louisiana.
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#155 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:19 pm

12z GFS +120 (LoL Back out over the Gulf)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#156 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:20 pm

ROCK wrote:sitting over NO is the same as the 12Z run.....so it comes down to what model camp your in.....one that desperately needs rain in Texas or one that floods NO.... :D


I think we are in the same camp Rock. :lol: Right now it's moving WNW and the GFS starts out moving it NW. It would have to move NNW to get the where the GFS is showing it in 72 hours. I don't think that is going to happen.
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#157 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:21 pm

Starting to move east at 120 hours....toward Ivan's house :D
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Re:

#158 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:Starting to move east at 120 hours....toward Ivan's house :D


I'll be in Orlando and Ft. Laud this weekend, flight might be delayed back home if the GFS pans out :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#159 Postby micktooth » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:24 pm

Do you all think this might pose a possible flooding event for south Louisiana? It doesn't take much rain to have standing water in the streets. Interesting few days ahead.
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#160 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:25 pm

12z GFS +144

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