ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

I agree something will develop. What I don't agree is where it will go. GFS showed Irene near Texas, which never went there.

[ROCK]

looks like the local folks lean toward the EURO and CMC.... that is a good bet....

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, I don't see any flights making it into Pensacola on Tuesday if the GFS is right

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS is about 50 miles SW of the 12z run at 132 hours. Maybe a west shift at 00z.

[Portastorm]

Do you all think this might pose a possible flooding event for south Louisiana? It doesn't take much rain to have standing water in the streets. Interesting few days ahead.

Absolutely if the system/storms stalls off the southeast Texas coast or even off of Louisiana.

[BigB0882]

What would cause this to go south before heading east, why wouldn't it just scoot east once it begins moving? If that run verifies, I wonder what the weather would be like in Baton Rouge? Probably just breezy with some rain? I imagine the bulk of the wet weather would be to the East. Who knows what kind of week we have in store!

Very weak steering flow...looping around before the trough bring its NE

[South Texas Storms]

looks like the local folks lean toward the EURO and CMC.... that is a good bet....

Rock you gotta stay up with me for tonight's Euro. Remember when I said that last night?

[ROCK]

Local AFD's are leaning towards the CMC and EURO solutions....the GFS the outlier.....

I think I said that last night during the EURO run that IVAN decided to sleep in for!!

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS is about 50 miles SW of the 12z run at 132 hours. Maybe a west shift at 00z.

This will be a different case. GFS and Euro have this stalling out and looping aorund in the Gulf so it will not be a case of models shifting east or west. Movement will be erratic. GFS hits Pensacola just like the last run. Very uncertain forecast.

[Portastorm]

looks like the local folks lean toward the EURO and CMC.... that is a good bet....

Rock you gotta stay up with me for tonight's Euro. Remember when I said that last night?

Hey, if you guys need me for anything ... I'll be asleep. But I'm sure Southerngale will be up with you!

[Ivanhater]

What would cause this to go south before heading east, why wouldn't it just scoot east once it begins moving? If that run verifies, I wonder what the weather would be like in Baton Rouge? Probably just breezy with some rain? I imagine the bulk of the wet weather would be to the East. Who knows what kind of week we have in store!

Very weak steering flow...looping around before the trough bring its NE

Very weak steering flow...looping around before the trough bring its NE

[Jevo]

18z GFS +168

What are the chances we get to see the cool forecast cone that is a big circle

[Ivanhater]

168 HOURS...Skirting the NW Florida coast hardly moving

[ROCK]

168 HOURS...Scrapping the NW Florida coast hardly moving

kat coming into the picture stage right....wonder if they will dance...

[Turtle]

From the Shreveport NWS AFD regarding the tropical thingy:

FROM THURSDAY THRU MONDAY...THINGS GET VERY COMPLICATED. ANOTHER
DAY OF MODEL RUNS HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER DAY OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. TIMING/TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE
TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/CMC ARE CONSISTENT THRU 00Z
SUNDAY OF HOLDING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LA COAST. BOTH THE 06Z
AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS TAKE THE LOW ON A NE TRACK TOWARDS THE
MS/AL COAST. NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...TROPICAL VS. SUBTROPICAL...ALSO
DIFFER DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE THROUGH LABOR
DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT TWEAKS TO POPS. IT STILL APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-20 PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AND NRN LA. FORECAST
MAY STILL SEE QUITE A FEW CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL
THE DETAILS OF THE LOW BECOME CLEAR.

I hope we get some rain here. Last time we got over 1" of rain a storm was in May.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NOGAPS run doesn't look too unreasonable.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

[Wthrman13]

What is the ENKF model? I've never heard of it before.

EnKF, short for "Ensemble Kalman Filter" doesn't technically refer to a particular model. It's a data assimilation technique that can be applied to any given modeling system. It's a fairly sophisticated technique that uses an ensemble of model runs (which provides a measure of forecast uncertainty) combined with the observations in a statistically robust manner. It's computationally expensive, which is why it hasn't been used much in operational centers until relatively recently (but it's been applied in research for many years).

[South Texas Storms]

What is the ENKF model? I've never heard of it before.

EnKF, short for "Ensemble Kalman Filter" doesn't technically refer to a particular model. It's a data assimilation technique that can be applied to any given modeling system. It's a fairly sophisticated technique that uses an ensemble of model runs (which provides a measure of forecast uncertainty) combined with the observations in a statistically robust manner. It's computationally expensive, which is why it hasn't been used much in operational centers until relatively recently (but it's been applied in research for many years).

Oh cool. Thanks! Do they plan on using it more in the future?

[Ivanhater]

Ugh still south of Pensacola next Thursday



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[Wthrman13]

What is the ENKF model? I've never heard of it before.

EnKF, short for "Ensemble Kalman Filter" doesn't technically refer to a particular model. It's a data assimilation technique that can be applied to any given modeling system. It's a fairly sophisticated technique that uses an ensemble of model runs (which provides a measure of forecast uncertainty) combined with the observations in a statistically robust manner. It's computationally expensive, which is why it hasn't been used much in operational centers until relatively recently (but it's been applied in research for many years).

Oh cool. Thanks! Do they plan on using it more in the future?

The short answer is yes.