ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

http://www.myfoxhouston.com/dpps/news/bp-evacuates-nonessential-workers-in-gulf-dpgonc-20110831-kh_14809736

[South Texas Storms]

Wow Ivan I would love it if that happened but isn't that very unlikely?

[Aric Dunn]

looks like we will probably have a depression sooner rather than later... tomorrow afternoon of course when recon gets there.. lol realistically before than but.....

[SEASON_CANCELED]

models have this thing all over. And I am afraid they are under-estimating its intensity. We could easily have a Category 3 on our hands before Sunday. Conditions are great for development and the dry air to the north has lifted out.

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like we will probably have a depression sooner rather than later... tomorrow afternoon of course when recon gets there.. lol realistically before than but.....

And from my unerstanding, it's probably going to be sitting in the gulf of mexico warm bathtub for several days, correct?

[HurricaneBrain]

Don't count too much on the GFS.

[HouTXmetro]

OK, What's the ETA for this event....? I have a road trip planned for Labor Day from Houston to Atlanta GA. Scheduled to leave Houston Late Thursday Night around midnight taking I-10 East from Houston through Mobile, Alabama then cutting north from their to Atlanta. I'll be Departing Atlanta early Monday Morning to drive back to Houston. I'd hate driving through a Storm/Hurricane coming or going So I need to make a decision on if it will be safe to take this road trip and not get stuck somewhere waiting it out.

[boiker]

This is sitting over the loop current and the gulf is exceptionally warm. It could get organized and intensify very fast if the environment improves soon.

[cycloneye]

looks like we will probably have a depression sooner rather than later... tomorrow afternoon of course when recon gets there.. lol realistically before than but.....

And from my unerstanding, it's probably going to be sitting in the gulf of mexico warm bathtub for several days, correct?

From the 8 PM TWO.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[northjaxpro]

looks like we will probably have a depression sooner rather than later... tomorrow afternoon of course when recon gets there.. lol realistically before than but.....

And from my unerstanding, it's probably going to be sitting in the gulf of mexico warm bathtub for several days, correct?

Yes. Unless there is a sudden change with the steering pattern over the next 4-5 days. it appears that this system will be meandering around slowly in the GOM for quite some time.

[South Texas Storms]

Don't count too much on the GFS.

You don't agree with the GFS?

[ROCK]

models have this thing all over. And I am afraid they are under-estimating its intensity. We could easily have a Category 3 on our hands before Sunday. Conditions are great for development and the dry air to the north has lifted out.

huh? we dont have a center yet and you are talking Cat 3..really? slightly premature....

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like we will probably have a depression sooner rather than later... tomorrow afternoon of course when recon gets there.. lol realistically before than but.....

And from my unerstanding, it's probably going to be sitting in the gulf of mexico warm bathtub for several days, correct?

Yes. Unless there is a sudden change with the steering pattern over the next 4-5 days. it appears that this system will be meandering around slowly in the GOM for quite some time.

Yep, sitting in the Hot Gulf of Mexico for multiple days. It's going to be interesting how strong this gets.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

models have this thing all over. And I am afraid they are under-estimating its intensity. We could easily have a Category 3 on our hands before Sunday. Conditions are great for development and the dry air to the north has lifted out.

huh? we dont have a center yet and you are talking Cat 3..really? slightly premature....

We have model consensus and a wonderful environment. That enough

[BigB0882]

models have this thing all over. And I am afraid they are under-estimating its intensity. We could easily have a Category 3 on our hands before Sunday. Conditions are great for development and the dry air to the north has lifted out.

I've read that shear is supposed to be pretty strong for the next few days, at least. 20-30 kts, right? Someone else can confirm or deny but that is the last I heard. I doubt anything can blow up too big with that kind of shear but maybe it will relax or the TC will avoid the area with shear.

[Tireman4]

[Goodness gracious yes. I am wanting the first snowstorm. I live for falling flakes and frigid temperatures...[/quote]

What!? You said to wait until Friday?[/quote]

Yeah, well I am now in SNOWMODE!!!

[ROCK]

current steering....would suggest west or WNW....over all I see two areas with low level turning....one moving wnw closer to the Yucatan and another more north towards the NGOM which looks to moving wnw as well...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[BigB0882]

Already showing up to 10 inches across deep south LA including New Orleans. About 5-6 in my area. Only should go up as the system organizes more.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=lix&gc=2

I wonder if they are hugging the GFS at all? If this ends up further west (which is my guess) then it could actually be more rain than that for us. I think we are in for a wet wet time.

[WxGuy1]

models have this thing all over. And I am afraid they are under-estimating its intensity. We could easily have a Category 3 on our hands before Sunday. Conditions are great for development and the dry air to the north has lifted out.

huh? we dont have a center yet and you are talking Cat 3..really? slightly premature....

We have model consensus and a wonderful environment. That enough

The 18z NAM has 20-40 kts 250 mb westerly flow across the northern GoM through at least Saturday night. The GFS brings an upper-level trough until the GoM through the weekend, also providing southwesterly shear. That upper-level trough will also likely provide some upper-level divergence to enhance convective development, but there may be issues with moderate to occasional strong vertical shear. Other than shear issues, there may also be issue with the center being too close to land. The GFDL, NAM, GFS, and ECMWF indicate that whatever low does form in the GoM will be very close to shore. Looking at forecasts for precipitable water from the NAM (I don't use theNAM for tropical cyclone tracking, but it's a very good model for mesoscale and synoptic scale forecasts for the regions AROUND the tropical cyclones), it looks like some drier air (PW < 1.6") may wrap around the west and southern sides of the potential cyclone from the northwest.

So, adding the possibility for moderate wind shear to the apparent likelihood (per the available model guidance, at least) of land interaction (even if the center of circulation stays off shore), I think it's very premature that think we'll be dealing with a Cat 3. In addition, as Rock noted, we don't even shear a tropical cyclone yet, so it's doubly premature since there are a lot of uncertainties regarding WHERE the center will develop, how the structure of the storm will develop, etc. Of course, the water is warm and TCHP > 50 j/kg over the western 60% of the northern GoM, so 93L does look likely to develop. In addition, there is model support for tropical cyclone development. I just think it's premature to start thinking Cat 3+ from this thus-far-undeveloped INVEST.

Note I'm not even saying it won't get to that intensity. I'm just not sure there's value in saying "It could be Cat 3", since there's probably a (very remote, very low) chance it could be Cat 4. Likewise, there's a chance it could be Cat 1 or Cat 2, or it could just max out at tropical storm strength. There's even the possibility that it won't get any stronger than tropical depression strength. The latter is unlikely given model forecasts, but it's possible. I am most confident in saying it'll be tropical storm strength, and I think it could get to Cat 1 depending upon how close to land it actually meanders. Anything beyond that is anyone's guess, IMO.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Before I get flamed or anything these are just my opinions.


Water Vapor is little to no dry air at all in the area. The gulf loop is hot. Storms in the past generally bomb out within ours of hitting the current. This storm could be lurking around for a few days from what we know.


I have a bad feeling about this one. Like Lump in throat bad. If it was moving faster i wouldnt be so concerned. I will leave it there.

Night all.