ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

North Gulf Coast has to include Northwest Gulf Coast (Upper TX coast) also, right? Not sure from the wording.

[mf_dolphin]

That usually happens when it's changing status but I find it hard to believe they're making this a TD at this point.

[South Texas Storms]

Rgv, has the highest vorticity been moving WNW so far today?

[underthwx]

ivan.can you post latest models and describe impacts you foresee for your area?..

[sphelps8681]

Where did 93L go. It no longer shows on the map here on this website.

[Dean4Storms]

This radar loop looking west from Key West showing convection just east of the 24.5 85.5 Best Track of the Low that is persisting. Think we have our center.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Rgv20]

Rgv, has the highest vorticity been moving WNW so far today?

More like NW since 12z..

[cycloneye]

That usually happens when it's changing status but I find it hard to believe they're making this a TD at this point.

I haven't so far seen a renumber for 93L. Maybe a glitch on the graphic.

[BigB0882]

That usually happens when it's changing status but I find it hard to believe they're making this a TD at this point.

That was my first thought but I can't see them upgrading right after posting the 60% chances. They would have gone with much higher than 60% if they knew an upgrade was coming so soon. Maybe the new best track repositioned the L and so it will show up in a little while in a slightly different location?

[HurricaneBrain]

Don't count too much on the GFS.

You don't agree with the GFS?

I just don't trust it. Unreliable model the last few years if you ask me.

[mf_dolphin]

Where did 93L go. It no longer shows on the map here on this website.

That usually happens when a system is in the process of being upgraded or dropped. Hard to believe either is happening now with 93L.

[HurricaneBrain]

Disappearance of a system on the map means one of three things:
1. Tropical Depression formed (they are probably going to wait for recon to upgrade)
2. Relocation
3. Glitch

[sphelps8681]

Surely it should be an upgrade, unless the shear is tearing it apart.

[poof121]

00Z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011090100, , BEST, 0, 245N, 875W, 30, 1010, DB, 34

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

08/29/2011 07:41a.m.          1,591 invest_RENUMBER_al922011_al122011.ren
08/19/2011 01:46a.m.          5,644 invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren
08/14/2011 12:37a.m.          1,935 invest_RENUMBER_al942011_al072011.ren


There is a 93L in the renumber list,but is the past 93L on the 19th of August. So far nothing like that on todays 93L. As I said above,it has to be a brief glitch on the graphic.

[underthwx]

with the higher 60% chance...do the models make the system more predictable?...are the models in better aggreement?

[Portastorm]

Well, let's not get TOO excited in Texas...
After all, Texas *did* swallow an entire tropical storm!!
RIP, Danny. RIP.

Actually, it was TS DON, the sorriest excuse for a tropical storm ever!

[bamajammer4eva]

From ABC 33/40 in Alabama blog posted this afternoon

http://www.alabamawx.com/

LABOR DAY WEEKEND ON THE COAST: Could be very wet as Lee develops. The GFS suggests Lee will hover just south of Mobile Bay Saturday and Sunday, and if this is correct heavy tropical downpours could bring flooding issues to the Alabama and Northwest Florida Gulf Coast. But again, we note the NAM has Lee closer to the Texas coast with the heaviest rain over Louisiana and Mississippi, so nothing is carved in stone at this point. But, clearly there is substantial risk of wind and rain along the Alabama and NW Florida coasts this weekend. Keep in close touch with the latest Gulf of Mexico developments.

HURRICANE LEE? We also should point out a few of the early model runs are bringing Lee to hurricane strength over the weekend. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be required for parts of the Central Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

[poof121]

invest_al932011.invest 818 B 9/1/10 12:23:00 AM

from ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

The date on the file is from 2010 for some reason. Something screwy going on at the NHC...

[TexWx]

I'll put it this way...

My sprinkler(s) are on standby.

I think it just "formed" a touch too much to east.