ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM shifted SW through 36 hours. At this time during its 18z run it was inland in LA. Just south of Lake Charles on this run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Looks like the initialization is too far west and south.

No if you look at its initial 850mb vorticity max, it is pretty much exactly where the 850mb vort max is on the ssec wisconsin site.

[Dean4Storms]

Just reminding......

This Thread is for posts of models and discussions thereof dealing with those model posts. All other posts need to be posted in the general discussion thread of Invest 93L!!

Thanks for cooperating!!

[Florida1118]

NHC says conditions are going to get better in a day or so, so we must wait and see

[Annie Oakley]

Fay was amazing....watered the whole state of Florida. Over and over and over and over again. Just to make sure.

[SouthDadeFish]

Shear is definitely the limiting factor for intensification for 93L. The environment is moist, SSTs are very high, and vorticity has continued to improve as the day went on. I'm thinking that as soon as the shear lets up, which will probably be tomorrow, we will see a tropical depression form. Although the SHIPS doesn't ever show wind shear dropping too low, it still strengthens 93L at a steady rate, probably due to the very warm waters. This is not a professional forecast, but just my opinion.

[Dean4Storms]

0z NAM shifted SW through 36 hours. At this time during its 18z run it was inland in LA. Just south of Lake Charles on this run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Looks like the initialization is too far west and south.

No if you look at its initial 850mb vorticity max, it is pretty much exactly where the 850mb vort max is on the ssec wisconsin site.[/quote

Best Track though has placed the surface low at 24.5 87.5

[underthwx]

as much as we need some rain here in my state...i think im hoping this one will go away...and not threaten our friends in the eastern and central gulf....or us....





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

Fay was amazing....watered the whole state of Florida. Over and over and over and over again. Just to make sure.

I sure do hope future Lee waters the whole state of Texas!

[RL3AO]

Guys, this is the model thread. Any posts not related to a discussion or posting of a model run should not be in here.

[paintplaye]

0z NAM shifted SW through 36 hours. At this time during its 18z run it was inland in LA. Just south of Lake Charles on this run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Looks like the initialization is too far west and south.

No if you look at its initial 850mb vorticity max, it is pretty much exactly where the 850mb vort max is on the ssec wisconsin site.[/quote

Best Track though has placed the surface low at 24.5 87.5[/quote]


While the initialization may have been a little to the south the NAM ends up jumping back to the NW pretty soon after initialization

[sphelps8681]

0z NAM shifted SW through 36 hours. At this time during its 18z run it was inland in LA. Just south of Lake Charles on this run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Looks like the initialization is too far west and south.

I am very novice in all this, but I would truly like to understand your thinking behind it being to far west and south. Is there some link or info I can read so I can read that you might be referring to. I am sure there are a lot of others on here that might want to understand a little better.

[SeminoleWind]

LOL, looks like someone threw a plate of spaghetti at a wall.

[img]https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif[ /img]

What the heck, lol i don't think i have ever seen the model tracks so crazy.

[Radiogirltx]

Just reminding......

This Thread is for posts of models and discussions thereof dealing with those model posts. All other posts need to be posted in the general discussion thread of Invest 93L!!

Thanks for cooperating!!

Dang it, sorry. Been going back and forth between the two forums. Sometimes I forget where I'm at. I'll post my landfall question over there.....

[Radiogirltx]

With this storm Having the possibility of multiple landfalls, it got me
To wondering. Which past storm has the distinction of most landfalls in it's track, before falling below TS status?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks NTX, looks like there is potential for shear to really try and tear at this for the next few days and try to keep it from getting to strong. Won't keep the rains from coming for days though if this sticks around like most models are showing.

[Dean4Storms]

0z NAM shifted SW through 36 hours. At this time during its 18z run it was inland in LA. Just south of Lake Charles on this run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Looks like the initialization is too far west and south.

I am very novice in all this, but I would truly like to understand your thinking behind it being to far west and south. Is there some link or info I can read so I can read that you might be referring to. I am sure there are a lot of others on here that might want to understand a little better.

The link above starts with the L (Low) just north of the Yucatan and then it jumps SW before moving NW. The initial place the L (Low) begins is a bit further west and south than 24.5N 87.5W where they have placed the current surface Low as it appears too me.

[RL3AO]

With this storm Having the possibility of multiple landfalls, it got me
To wondering. Which past storm has the distinction of most landfalls in it's track, before falling below TS status?

Fay has to be up there, at least for US impacts.

[Dean4Storms]

0Z NAM begins moving the Storm to the East once off the SW LA Coast at 78hrs.

[nashrobertsx]

The models aren't REALLY all over the place at all....if you look at landfall points, they are pretty much between Upper Texas and Ms. The reason people think they are all over the place is because of the looping or meandering which is surely expected with this system because of weak steering currents. Of course the less this thing is organized, the more widespread the rain and wind will be, but if it really winds up then it could just be a small little core out there not giving any land any rainfall for a while. This is going to be interesting.

[South Texas Storms]

0Z NAM begins moving the Storm to the East once off the SW LA Coast at 78hrs.

Yeah it looks like it did a loop during the last 24 hours of the run.