Fabian and Jimena at 11 PM EDT 8 PM PDT

[WXBUFFJIM]

Fabian remains a minimal hurricane at 11 PM EDT. At 11 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 16.5 north, longitude 46.2 degrees west or about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antillies. Fabian is moving west northwest at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed still possible. Maximum sustained winds are 75 mph. Strengthening is forecast tonight through Saturday and Fabian could potentially become a major hurricane in the next 3-4 days or so as light wind aloft and warm sea surface temperatures will favor further intensification. GDFL brings Fabian to 93 and 101 knots in the next several days respectively. Hurricane force winds extends outwards 15 nm miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extends outward 85 nm. Minimum central pressure is 987 mb, 29.15". The projected path continues the west northwest track. Thus Fabian is expected to stay north of the Lesser Antillies and head for the general direction of the southeastern United States or the Mid Atlantic region potentially through next week. Hard to say if there will be a US landfall and where that will be. But east coast residents need to pay attention to Fabian in the next 7-10 days or so as new information comes in.

Hurricane Jimena continues to intensify in the east central Pacific. Jimena is centered at 17.3 north 139.0 west. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is now 973 mb. That's a 8 mb drop in 6 hours. Movement is wnw at 16 mph. A more west track is anticipated over the next few days. However the Hawaiian islands are potentially in the path of Jimena as the eye tracks just south of the big island. Hurricane advisories maybe needed thougb later in the weekend for parts of Hawaii. Dangerous surf and rip currents will definitely be a threat in through here.

More updates in the morning, good night.

Jim

[rainstorm]

thanks jim. lets see if fabian can continue to grow, very good

[WXBUFFJIM]

There's no reason to see this thing not strengthen to our first major hurricane of the season. Light shear and warm sea surface temperatures will only favor further development and this will potentially become our first major hurricane of 2003, I'll tell you that right now!! An eye is appearing on the latest satellite pics over Fabian. Definitely when you combine that symmetrical shape with the eye in the middle of that CDO and the excellent outflow on all 4 quadrants, you would have to be concerned for possibly significant strengthening throughout the weekend. Definitely keep watching this. It will be a long tracker most likely for folks who are plotting at home like I am!!!

Jim