ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Janie2006]

Haven't taken a peek at any new model runs yet, but it's been the medium range runs that have been driving me nuts.

[ROCK]

93L is sitting right next to 30knts of wind shear. It aint stacking in that environment not tonight anyway.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

steering

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


Low Level convergence is still just north of the Yucatan.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

I'm thinking that it may have a center relocation in the next 24 hours. It doesn't look very strong at all right now.

no well defined anything at the surface right now....the best low level convergence is well south or just north of the Yucatan. YOU will know when a LLC pops. WIth GOM waters like these you will see some cold cloud tops....centers always seem to relocate to the deepest convection, IMO...

[RachelAnna]

well good thing about the EURO is we should get a pretty good idea with the first few hours and where if anything should go...that means I can hit the sack early....

I have a nagging feeling the Euro and other models are going to continue to cause Texas residents much grief as we see the potential for a drought buster but no promise that it will come to fruition. Starting to think that this is going to be an LA event instead of a TX event. Just my opinion, of course.

[ROCK]

hmm imagine that..... the 0z GFS shows someting entriely different than the 18z....

[ConvergenceZone]

If that shear wasn't there then this could be one awful week ahead. Thank goodness for small miracles.

Unless things improve overnight I think they will cancel recon and wait to go in on Friday when things should be better. They can upgrade and send out watches/warnings if needed.

I think it still has a shot at a depression before it hits land...I do think they might drop the %60 chance of development to 40% tomorrow though....I didn't realize
the shear was going to be that bad. The shear should lessen tomorrow, but not sure if it will lessen enough to allow development. I still say depression before landfall though.(wherever it's going).

[Nikki]

hmm imagine that..... the 0z GFS shows someting entriely different than the 18z....

What did it show? Inquiring Texans want to know.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

hmm imagine that..... the 0z GFS shows someting entriely different than the 18z....

LOL does that shock you? GFS=Good For !@#$ LOL

[paintplaye]

hmm imagine that..... the 0z GFS shows someting entriely different than the 18z....

What did it show? Inquiring Texans want to know.

A lot more ridging causing the low to sit south of LA for a good amount of time (shift west)

[ROCK]

hmm imagine that..... the 0z GFS shows someting entriely different than the 18z....

What did it show? Inquiring Texans want to know.

shows 93L approaching the upper Texas coast only to stall out around TX/LA border...just sits there.....

[ROCK]

hmm imagine that..... the 0z GFS shows someting entriely different than the 18z....

LOL does that shock you? GFS=Good For !@#$ LOL

my thoughts also....I have zero confidence with the new GFS upgrade or not....I would rank it right there with the NOGAPS right now....

[RachelAnna]

hmm imagine that..... the 0z GFS shows someting entriely different than the 18z....

What did it show? Inquiring Texans want to know.

shows 93L approaching the upper Texas coast only to stall out around TX/LA border...just sits there.....

What time frame?

[Annie Oakley]

RachelAnna, Texas graciously concedes to Louisiana if that is the case. As usual, we wish everyone well and accounted for. That being said, we don't want La. to suffer more than they can handle, so please send some of it to Texas.

[SeminoleWind]

not seeing you point here the 18 and 00 at 60 pretty much the same?a tad west but not much

[Nikki]

Thanks Rock and Paint! I love the thought of rain!

[Rgv20]

New 0zGFS almost identical to the 12zECMWF thru Saturday morning..

[MGC]

I don't see the upper enviroment becoming favorable for a few day....UL high over Mexico and an ULL over SE Louisiana combined are producing plenty of shear over 93L. I think it will have a hard time developing anything beyound a TD or weak TS. Towards the weekend the upper enviroment might become less hostile...biggest issue with 93L will be heavy rains over the North Gulf Coast........MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast....check with the pro mets for that.

[ROCK]

GFS never intensifies it much more than a TD or low end TS....which would be good if it was headed our direction...

[HouTXmetro]

How come no one is posting the model runs tonight?

[psyclone]

the gulf is a (very) hot mess. percolating. festering. persistence at this time of the year will eventually yield something. someone's going to get a ton of rain at the very least. i hope it's not me.

[Nikki]

Rock you know how us in SE Texas go and play in the snow for hours? I think I will do the same for the rain if it heads this way!