ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[RachelAnna]

RachelAnna, Texas graciously concedes to Louisiana if that is the case. As usual, we wish everyone well and accounted for. That being said, we don't want La. to suffer more than they can handle, so please send some of it to Texas.

Oh, I am right there with you. It's just when I look at all of the models it seems like they continue to be east of the TX/LA border. Of course, this is subject to change, but when I look out at my yard it is crying for rain...which has my jaded brain thinking that this drought is never going to end and that tropical moisture would be too simple a solution. Of course, the models will continue to change and throw us all off..which is part of the interest in tropical weather, I suppose!

[bamajammer4eva]

Doesn't look like enough change to talk about except its farther offshore which could be very bad cause its less land interaction.

18z for 18z 9/3/11

00z for 18z 9/3/11

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If the shear is going to be that bad why did all the global models develop this into a fairly strong cyclone? IMO is because conditions are going to improve a lot after tomorrow, of course I can be wrong and so do the models.

[BigB0882]

Definitely weaker which is not surprising given the environment out there. It wouldn't take much of a change in shear for this to take off though so no one let their guards down.

[fci]

Why is 93L missing from the S2K map?

[SouthFloridawx]

It's going to be considerably difficult for any models to get a handle on this until there is a LLC.

[Annie Oakley]

Convergence....excellent point about the shear. Who saw it coming.....or did we miss or overlook someone's obs?

[Annie Oakley]

As long as that shear is howling across the Gulf it's going to be difficult to keep much of anything going. Maybe it'll turn out to be a drought-buster for someone, but so far no dice.

Go Janie!

[ROCK]

It's going to be considerably difficult for any models to get a handle on this until there is a LLC.

you are right...model are just guessing right now....including this drugged induced run by the 0z GFS....

[psyclone]

Why is 93L missing from the S2K map?

i don't know. i've seen that map go goofy in the past but it usually corrects pretty quickly. not this time. 93L has been missing for at least 2 or 3 hours now.

[paintplaye]

FWIW the 00z GFS is farther west and ridging to the north looks to be stronger.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[maxintensity]

Definitely weaker which is not surprising given the environment out there. It wouldn't take much of a change in shear for this to take off though so no one let their guards down.

GFS strengthens when it is over water and after it forms a core. It takes time to form a solid core. CMC and ECMWF show rapid intensification before landfall. I'm not sure what environment you speak of. If you mean there is shear in GOM tonight, then yes. If you mean there will be this level of shear tomorrow and each day after that then that is not correct based on the model output.

[ROCK]

at 120hr its back over open water and where it started at 42hr.... give me a break...

[SouthFloridawx]

at 120hr its back over open water and where it started at 42hr.... give me a break...

I'm going to call my friend in New Orleans and ask her if she would like her raft back now...

[paintplaye]

at 120hr its back over open water and where it started at 42hr.... give me a break...

With the ridging to the north it looks like it could be pushed pretty far south

[Rgv20]

Thru Monday morning 0zGFS has 93L located in the same spot as the 12zECWMF...about 100 miles south of LA.

It also looks like it miss the trough on the 0zGFS..it should start going on that rare WSW to SW track.

[westwind]

Why is 93L missing from the S2K map?

i don't know. i've seen that map go goofy in the past but it usually corrects pretty quickly. not this time. 93L has been missing for at least 2 or 3 hours now.

It's back now!

[ROCK]

126hr misses the trof and inches over to Texas....

[SoupBone]

As long as that shear is howling across the Gulf it's going to be difficult to keep much of anything going. Maybe it'll turn out to be a drought-buster for someone, but so far no dice.

Like many here, I really hope this heads to Texas as a super soaker.

[ROCK]

144hr rides the coastline of Texas just offshore...