ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[pwrdog]

The Euro seem to think florida now... If I have the right time stamp..

Euro is not out for me but it has never showed florida so timestamp would not be a problem. You sure your looking at euro?

I was sure it was the euro... But after updating the page it's now gone... I knew it was way to early... Weird..

Lack of rain and watching all these looping paths on these models has me seeing things..

[BigB0882]

Sits there for 24 hours. That could be a long day for someone.

[paintplaye]

with that ridge building to north.. expect a left or west turn after 96+

Well the ridge is moving east so that would result in a SW movement and just like that the euro shows it:

[paintplaye]

This run just got scary:It shows a deepening system just south of the Texas LA border.

[South Texas Storms]

Yikes, what is taking it so long to move onshore?

[maxintensity]

Yeh euro doing some RI right now. Also note the west motion between hours 144-168. Always be weary of westard moving hurricanes at landfall.

[paintplaye]

Yikes, what is taking it so long to move onshore?

Mainly the ridge up north. It is stopping the northern movement.

[BigB0882]

Yikes, it doesn't look like it moves that much from 96 and 144 hours. It does dig south a bit but not really that much. This could be ugly.

The big fear for my area is that another trough comes down and picks it up after it goes under RI.

[paintplaye]

Yikes, it doesn't look like it moves that much from 96 and 144 hours. It does dig south a bit but not really that much. This could be ugly.

The big fear for my area is that another trough comes down and picks it up after it goes under RI.

Gets even "better":

[BigB0882]

Hard to tell, does it just nudge a little more SW from 144 to 168?

[bamajammer4eva]

picked up

[BigB0882]

And the EXACT thing I was worried about happening just happened on the Euro! I am learning to read these maps after all. It gets picked up and slams into my backyard HARD. Only one run but that is a scary one.

[South Texas Storms]

I really don't think it is going to bomb out just SE of the TX coast by just sitting in the same spot for days. Upwelling will not allow it to undergo RI like that. And I think it will be inland in 192 hours anyway.

[maxintensity]

NOLA special this run as it gets the nasty NE side of this powerhouse major hurricane. This is an epic euro run good grief. It was worth staying up for! Continues NE HR 192-216 and AL gets some lovin too.

[pwrdog]

Big blow up of thunderstorms .. around 27n--87w..

Right about where the latest Euro wants it to form..

[somethingfunny]

Between 168hr and 192hr on this 00z Euro run, something very strange happened. Keep an eye up near Halifax, Canada.





0z Euro: low pressure appears at 24 hours 1007mb | 24-48 moves W 1003mb | 48-72 moves NE 997mb | 72-96 moves N 989mb | 96-120 moves S 983mb | 120-144 moves NW 971mb | 144-168 moves W 953mb | 168-192 moves NE 930mb | 192-216 inland, moving NE and weakening

A rather strong 1027mb high pressure near Nova Scotia is replaced by a 996mb non-tropical low pressure area. It yanks Katia to the NNE, sparing Bermuda a direct hit, and it also seems to be the catalyst for Lee pulling northeastward into Louisiana and then catching the trough that enters the CONUS (which it would otherwise miss as it heads towards STX/MX on the previous runs) Where's that low come from? It feels like a "Glitch in the Matrix" to me, and I'm inclined to throw this run out despite how exciting it might be.

[South Texas Storms]

WOW good catch sf. I didn't even see that. Seems bogus after 168 hours now.

[stormhunter7]

looks like that low comes off the front that moves off CONUS NE ahead of Katia... starts to show up at 168h.. and the H to the east of it.. bombs to 1030

[bamajammer4eva]

Shows up pretty well in this northern Hemisphere loop though it looks rather strong dropping down like that this time of year I would think.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNH_loop.html

[somethingfunny]

Shows up pretty well in this northern Hemisphere loop though it looks rather strong dropping down like that this time of year I would think.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNH_loop.html

I see it now. Just a tad bit deeper than it was on the 12z and the previous few runs that sent Lee SW into TX/MX.

Well, this is going to be a long week!