ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

The GFS Ensemble Mean shows almost the same thing though not until 240 H

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That is Bizarre. Very nice catch SF.


Looks like the models are trending more towards a deeper and more intense system. As I stated earlier, I just have a bad feeling about this one.

[cottoncloud]

Between 168hr and 192hr on this 00z Euro run, something very strange happened. Keep an eye up near Halifax, Canada.





0z Euro: low pressure appears at 24 hours 1007mb | 24-48 moves W 1003mb | 48-72 moves NE 997mb | 72-96 moves N 989mb | 96-120 moves S 983mb | 120-144 moves NW 971mb | 144-168 moves W 953mb | 168-192 moves NE 930mb | 192-216 inland, moving NE and weakening

A rather strong 1027mb high pressure near Nova Scotia is replaced by a 996mb non-tropical low pressure area. It yanks Katia to the NNE, sparing Bermuda a direct hit, and it also seems to be the catalyst for Lee pulling northeastward into Louisiana and then catching the trough that enters the CONUS (which it would otherwise miss as it heads towards STX/MX on the previous runs) Where's that low come from? It feels like a "Glitch in the Matrix" to me, and I'm inclined to throw this run out despite how exciting it might be.

that "Glitch in the matrix" (lol btw) also showed up on the 00z GFS if im not mistaken. you can just barely see it at the top of the screen. pretty similar to this run too as far as location methinks.

[bamajammer4eva]

Pertains to 93L

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/01/11 0656Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0645Z CW
.
LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...
.
ATTN WFOS...MOB...LIX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...
.
EVENT...MOD/HVY RAINS EXPECTED LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE
IN GULF OF MEXICO
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TRACKING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ENE ACROSS
ERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOD/HVY RAINS TO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GULF STATES FEW DAYS. OVER THE PAST FEW HRS MICROWAVE-BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT ALONG WITH GOES SOUNDER ARE SHOWING PLUME OF ENHANCED PW
(2.0"+ WITH 2.6" MAX) BEGINNING TO REACH COASTAL AREAS OF SE LA/MS/AL.
MID-LVL MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE IS GETTING
DRAWN N AND W OF A BROAD MID/UL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN DRIFTING NW
CENTERED NEAR 29.6N/88.2W.

GREATEST UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE HOW FAR INLAND MOD/HVY RAINS GET INTO
SE LA/SRN MS OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. COASTAL LA PARISHES SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF RECIEVING THE HEAVIEST RAINS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY (LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND 18Z).

[pwrdog]

I really don't think it is going to bomb out just SE of the TX coast by just sitting in the same spot for days. Upwelling will not allow it to undergo RI like that. And I think it will be inland in 192 hours anyway.

If there was a year when something like this could ever possibly happen, This would be the year..

The Cyclone Heat Potential is not that great for a near stationary storm outside of the Loop or warm eddies.

Hurricane Mitch did do well... but the loop current is close by... Nobody needs 30-40 inches of rain in just a few days..

[Rainband]

I really don't think it is going to bomb out just SE of the TX coast by just sitting in the same spot for days. Upwelling will not allow it to undergo RI like that. And I think it will be inland in 192 hours anyway.

If there was a year when something like this could ever possibly happen, This would be the year..

The Cyclone Heat Potential is not that great for a near stationary storm outside of the Loop or warm eddies.

Hurricane Mitch did do well... but the loop current is close by... Nobody needs 30-40 inches of rain in just a few days..

this is an invest. Look at what happened with Irene early models aren't accurate. Hope you guys get some rain but just saying......

[Rainband]

short term (today - saturday)...
surface high pressure along the middle Atlantic will build south
today as an area of low pressure moves northwest into the
central Gulf. Slightly drier air associated with the high to the
north will advect into the region during the day on a northeast to
easterly wind flow. This slightly drier air will result in lower
rain chances over far northern zones where 30 percent probability of precipitation will be
depicted with highest rain chances (pops 50 percent) expected
along the immediate Gulf Coast from Tampa south to Fort Myers.


Tonight and Friday surface high pressure will remain over the
southeastern U.S. And northern Florida as models spin up a tropical
system over the west central Gulf southeast of the la/Texas coasts.
The GFS and European model (ecmwf) show drier air remaining over the Northern
Peninsula and northern Nature Coast (levy county) which should
keep rain chances in the isolated to low end scattered range (pops
20 to 30 percent) in these areas as well as interior sections of
west central Florida with highest probability of precipitation (40 percent) remaining
along the immediate Gulf Coast from Tampa south to Fort Myers.


During Friday night and Saturday the consensus of the models show
a tropical system somewhere over the west central Gulf south of
the la coast. Models this morning continue to offer varying
solutions with respect to the exact location and intensity of this
system...thus confidence in anyone solution still remains on the
low side...which leads to a lot of uncertainty in the forecast
during this time frame. Despite the differences in the
models...they do agree that this system will remain well to west
of the region through Friday night which will keep the forecast
area dry under partly cloudy skies. On Saturday a blend of the 00z
GFS and 12z European model (ecmwf) run will favor increasing clouds and higher rain
chances...especially over the Gulf waters and along the West Coast
where 50 percent probability of precipitation will be depicted trending back to 40 percent
over interior locations. Considerable cloudiness should keep
temperatures near normal through the period.




Long term (saturday night - wednesday)...
will be monitoring the Gulf for the long term period as models
develop a low in the northern Gulf and meander through middle-week as
there will be little steering flow...but models vary greatly in
location and intensity. Across the local area weak high pressure
will shift east and a weak trough will develop with deep moisture in
place allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon and evening with S/southeast winds in place. Temperatures will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs and lows will generally be
in the 70s.


&&


Aviation...
light winds in place will increase to around 8 kts from the east
through the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy VFR skies may
have tempo brief MVFR conditions near afternoon thunderstorms. Light
winds and VFR conditions will then be possible after 02/00z.


&&


Marine...
surface high pressure building in from the north and lower
pressure over the southeastern Gulf will support an east to
southeast wind flow over the Gulf waters today through Friday with
speeds in the 10 to 15 knot range near shore and around 15 knots
offshore. During Friday night into the upcoming Holiday weekend
the forecast will all hinge on what develops over the Gulf. Models
this morning continue to depict tropical development over the
west central Gulf south of la. Although the models all agree on
this...they continue to differ on the placement and intensity of
this system...thus confidence in anyone solution remains low at
this time. Given the uncertainty will only depict a slow increase
in wind and seas at this time but wind and seas are likely to at
least increase into the exercise caution range during the
weekend...especially over the offshore waters...with additional
adjustments in wind and seas likely in later forecasts as this
system develops. All marine interests should pay close attention
to later forecasts.


&&


Fire weather...
no fire weather issues expected.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 88 75 89 75 / 50 20 40 20
fmy 88 75 89 74 / 50 20 40 20
gif 89 73 90 72 / 40 20 30 20
srq 88 75 89 76 / 50 20 40 20
bkv 88 71 90 70 / 40 20 30 20
spg 86 77 88 77 / 50 20 40 20


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&


$$


Short term/marine/fire weather...57/McMichael
long term/aviation...24/Colson

[Rainband]

Pertains to 93L

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/01/11 0656Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0645Z CW
.
LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...
.
ATTN WFOS...MOB...LIX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...
.
EVENT...MOD/HVY RAINS EXPECTED LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE
IN GULF OF MEXICO
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TRACKING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ENE ACROSS
ERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOD/HVY RAINS TO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GULF STATES FEW DAYS. OVER THE PAST FEW HRS MICROWAVE-BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT ALONG WITH GOES SOUNDER ARE SHOWING PLUME OF ENHANCED PW
(2.0"+ WITH 2.6" MAX) BEGINNING TO REACH COASTAL AREAS OF SE LA/MS/AL.
MID-LVL MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE IS GETTING
DRAWN N AND W OF A BROAD MID/UL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN DRIFTING NW
CENTERED NEAR 29.6N/88.2W.

GREATEST UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE HOW FAR INLAND MOD/HVY RAINS GET INTO
SE LA/SRN MS OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. COASTAL LA PARISHES SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF RECIEVING THE HEAVIEST RAINS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY (LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND 18Z).

moving ene rotflmao

[bamajammer4eva]

Pertains to 93L

.

moving ene rotflmao

Yeah I think that would be a Lee cancel

[Nederlander]

lol looks like my etch-a-sketch did when i was a kid..

[tolakram]

Let's keep the discussion on the models and stop the one liners and unnecessary comments. Thanks.

[KWT]

Those models are utterly everywhere, such a big mess!!

[pwrdog]

I really don't think it is going to bomb out just SE of the TX coast by just sitting in the same spot for days. Upwelling will not allow it to undergo RI like that. And I think it will be inland in 192 hours anyway.

If there was a year when something like this could ever possibly happen, This would be the year..

The Cyclone Heat Potential is not that great for a near stationary storm outside of the Loop or warm eddies.

Hurricane Mitch did do well... but the loop current is close by... Nobody needs 30-40 inches of rain in just a few days..

this is an invest. Look at what happened with Irene early models aren't accurate. Hope you guys get some rain but just saying......

Yes this is just an invest but I was discussing what a specific model run like that could do and if it could be possible... I'd love to hear your thoughts on that model run.... Considering that's the model run we were talking about.... It's know by many that early models are not very accurate..

[Dean4Storms]

So strange, 0z GFS Ensembles still take this to the east.........


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _Loop.html

[pwrdog]

So strange, 0z GFS Ensembles still take this to the east.........


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _Loop.html

It looks like 06z GFS takes it into Texas/SW La, then back out over the gulf then to the sw towards brownsville.

Never deepens it much but that's another story.

That's more inline with other models.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[GCANE]

Convection may not be pretty at the moment but 700mb wind analysis does look good.

[cycloneye]

From HPC:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
439 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2011

VALID 12Z MON SEP 05 2011 - 12Z THU SEP 08 2011

A COMPLICATED MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE U.S. WITH
THE BIGGEST FCST ISSUE BEING THE HANDLING OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE GULF COAST STATES. OFF TO THE EAST OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...ENERGY
MEANDERING ACRS THE GULF OF MX CONTINUES TO BE HANDLED DIFFERENTLY
DEPENDING ON THE OPERATIONAL/ENS MODEL CHOSEN. THE 00Z GFS
CONTINUES ITS THEME OF BEING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE BETTER ENS LOW
CLUSTERING INDICATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF FIT
BETTER WITH THIS CLUSTERING ALBEIT WITH AN INTENSITY WHICH IS
QUITE DEEP. HOWEVER...SUCH A DEEP SOLN IS FAVORED BY OTHER MODELS
WITH THE 00Z CMC LEADING THE WAY WITH A STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING
CORPUS CHRISTI...TX EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IDEA WAS THROWN
OUT AS AN OUTLIER DUE TO ITS EXTREME NATURE THOUGH. TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET WERE UTILIZED EQUALLY WITH A BIT OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENS MEAN ADDED TO DAMPEN THE IMPACT OF THE GULF OF
MX DISTURBANCE. AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE SYSTEM IN
THE GULF OF MX...ITS PLAUSIBILITY IS FURTHER QUESTIONED WHICH
LEADS TO FURTHER USE OF THE MEANS DEEPER INTO THE FCST. BY DAY
7...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTED TO USE ANY ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL.

IT APPEARED THESE MODEL BLENDS ALSO HANDLED THE NRN STREAM TROF
QUITE WELL AS DIFFERENCES WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT UNTIL LATE IN THE
FCST PERIOD. ONE TROUBLE SPOT WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR DAYS 5
THRU 7 IS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE ACRS THE GULF OF AK. A
NUMBER OF OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT A SUB-960 MB LOW ACRS THE
REGION WITH ENS MEANS ALSO SUPPORTING A FAIRLY DEEP CYCLONE AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM IS NOT COVERED IN THE
PRELIM ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT.

[pwrdog]

Fairly gusty winds in NE Gulf

37 mph
32mph
28 mph

From the buoys..

It has gotten much windier in the last few hours..

[KWT]

00z ECm is insane, it produces a major hurricane out of this system, I'd be a little surprised if it ended up quite that strong but if it spends 6-7 days out there like that model thinks, its going to get good conditions aloft eventually you'd have thought.

06z GFS ends up just getting inland before it drops SW/WSW towards Mexico as a strengthening storm. models seem to be slowly becoming more agressive on this system, esp if it does manage to stay over water.

[dizzyfish]

They mentioned on the news this morning that the steering will be so light that it may bump around in the gulf for a week.