ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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meriland23
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1381 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:45 am

:band: I say, we need a little jazz...
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1382 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:58 am

(bold are parts that might interest you)
QUOTED FROM NHC 5 A.M. UPDATE

000
WTNT42 KNHC 010837
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2011

AN AMSR-E OVERPASS AT 0451 UTC RATHER UNEXPECTEDLY SHOWED A PARTLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH ONLY A FRAGMENT OF AN EYEWALL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...BUT
THAT BY ITSELF DOES NOT ADEQUATELY EXPLAIN THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE.
IT MAY BE THAT DRY AIR PREVIOUSLY SEEN NEAR THE STORM HAS WORKED ITS
WAY INTO THE CORE AS HINTED AT IN AMSR-E TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT
FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...280/17. KATIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N55W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 15N60W...
AND A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N71W. THESE FEATURES HAVE
CREATED A SIZABLE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST KATIA TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BY 120 HOURS. THE GFDL...
UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THEN
THEREAFTER LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.


IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND IS TEMPORARY OR A
SIGN OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FORMER POSSIBILITY AND SHOWS A SLOW
STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR
KATIA. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A VERY
FAVORABLE PATTERN...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF FORECAST SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE LATER PART OF
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS BOTH FORECAST KATIA TO INTENSIFY
TO STRONGER THAN 120 KT
...WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY IF THE MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OCCUR.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1383 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:13 am

:uarrow:

Interesting that the eyewall took a big hit.

Obvious on microwave.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

TPW looks like no dry-air intrusion in the boundary layer.

Moving into some mid-level dry air as seen on WV.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

A little hard to see why the core would take such a bit hit though.

Wonder if this may effect forecast track?


Image

Image
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#1384 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:15 am

01/0615 UTC 15.3N 45.1W T4.0/4.0 KATIA
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1385 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:19 am

remember with irene all models were together for first few runs but few days later their were not we cannot go with first few run call it fish at that point we hope it fish but we need see how models change **note cone shift left last few new cones**
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1386 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:20 am

Here is the latest core-temp profile from AMSU.

Looks like a boundary-layer inversion is in place which may account from the eyewall disruption.


Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1387 Postby sfwx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:21 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
334 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

NEXT WEEK...FORECAST INDIRECTLY DEPENDENT ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
IN THE GULF AS ANTICIPATED CLOSED LOW FORECAST BY CONSENSUS OF
GUID EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. VEERING FLOW ASCD WITH WEAKENING RIDGE NORTH OF AREA AND
FALLING UPSTREAM HGHTS OVER THE GULF SHOULD BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER PRECIP CHCS THROUGH THE BULK OF
NEXT WEEK. A RATHER WEAK WIND REGIME FORECAST BY PREFERRED ECMWF
WL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS AS WELL DURING MIDWEEK. HURR
KATIA CONTINUES PAST DAY 5 OF NHC FORECAST ON A ANTICIPATED RE-
CURVE NWD EAST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER HIGHER SWELL FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND NEXT MON.





SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
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#1388 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:23 am

Hurricane Katia making an approach... far away of the Lesser Antilles
Image
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#1389 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:38 am

New 06z runs GFS

48h

Image

96h
Image

144h

Image

192h

Image

204h

Image
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ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1390 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:40 am

New 06z runs GFS

48h

Image

96h
Image

144h

Image

192h

Image

204h

Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Advisories

#1391 Postby wx4me » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:47 am

HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
0900 UTC THU SEP 01 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 45.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 45SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 50SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 45.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.7N 48.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 45SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.6N 52.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.6N 54.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 22.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 45.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2011
...KATIA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 45.9W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...

AND KATIA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2011
AN AMSR-E OVERPASS AT 0451 UTC RATHER UNEXPECTEDLY SHOWED A PARTLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH ONLY A FRAGMENT OF AN EYEWALL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...BUT
THAT BY ITSELF DOES NOT ADEQUATELY EXPLAIN THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE.
IT MAY BE THAT DRY AIR PREVIOUSLY SEEN NEAR THE STORM HAS WORKED ITS
WAY INTO THE CORE AS HINTED AT IN AMSR-E TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT
FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...280/17. KATIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N55W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 15N60W...

AND A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N71W. THESE FEATURES HAVE
CREATED A SIZABLE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST KATIA TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BY 120 HOURS. THE GFDL...

UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THEN
THEREAFTER LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.

IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND IS TEMPORARY OR A
SIGN OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FORMER POSSIBILITY AND SHOWS A SLOW
STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR
KATIA. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A VERY
FAVORABLE PATTERN...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF FORECAST SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE LATER PART OF
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS BOTH FORECAST KATIA TO INTENSIFY
TO STRONGER THAN 120 KT...WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY IF THE MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OCCUR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 15.2N 45.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.7N 48.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.5N 50.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.6N 52.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.6N 54.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 20.5N 57.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 22.0N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 23.5N 63.0W 105 KT 120 MPH


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1392 Postby wx4me » Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:07 am

Katia says Good Morning on the Vis

Image
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#1393 Postby wx4me » Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:08 am

Also not that the NHC has Katia now currently moving West.. Not WNW like she has been moving
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1394 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:15 am

Overshooting tops have been increasing.

Looks like mostly in the feeder-band and not much in the eye-wall though.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provi ... n_MSG.html



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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1395 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:30 am

Image

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Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1396 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:31 am

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ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1397 Postby alhddar » Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:31 am

Image
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#1398 Postby alhddar » Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:32 am

Image
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rainstorm

#1399 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:34 am

hopefully katia will hurry up and recurve so something else can form.
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Re:

#1400 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:40 am

rainstorm wrote:hopefully katia will hurry up and recurve so something else can form.



Latest NOGAPS shows no recurve and GFS is a suspect late, sharp recurve.

I think a lot of people are going to start getting nervous.

Wouldn't be surprised NHC starts tasking recon.
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