ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[lostsole]

I swear it seems like a tropical storm just came ashore this morning high winds heavy rain crazy. The environment is plenty moist and the water is plenty warm I'm pretty worried about a storm brewing out there

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[KatDaddy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
450 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST WITH TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO HEADED INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST SO LETS GET TO IT.
FIRST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. ALOFT...HAVE 300MB/500MB RIDGE OVER THE S PLAINS INTO THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY. WEAKER 700MB RIDGE OVER THE SAME AREA AND
850MB RIDGE OVER THE S APPALACHIANS. SFC RIDGE ALSO POSITIONED
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BUOY DATA SHOWS WEAK SFC TROUGH PROBABLY CENTERED
NEAR THE 42001 BUOY WHICH UNFORTUNATELY IS NOT WORKING. THERE IS
SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE MISS RIVER DELTA WHICH
SEEMS TO BE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY OF SOME SORT.
WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH ANVIL SHIELD TO
THE EAST. WEST WINDS ALOFT SEEMED LINKED TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
THE MISS RIVER DELTA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHEAR WILL HAVE TO
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
CAN OCCUR.

SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW I THINK
SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...MOST LIKELY A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM...OFF THE LA COAST. ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. LOOKS LIKE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOOKING AT THE SREF/NAM/ECMWF/GFS/GEM...ALL
SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED SFC LOW. REALITY IS THAT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
HOLD A CENTER OF CIRCULATION WHERE EVER THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN
REMAIN ESTABLISHED AND COULD RELOCATE UNDER BETTER DEEP
CONVECTION. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY OFF THE LA COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME TENDENCY TO BRING
THE SYSTEM INLAND LA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
TRICKY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO GET PICKED UP BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE S ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE 850MB RIDGE IS
SLOWER TO ERODE AND DOES SO WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES EXCEPT FOR THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER BRING THE
SYSTEM INLAND LATE SUN AND OFF TO THE EAST. BUT ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AT THIS TIME LEAVE THE SYSTEM OFF THE LA COAST
AND DO NOT MOVE IT INLAND. THE 850MB RIDGE BUILD IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID WEST MON/TUE. SFC
RIDGE ALSO BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES
AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS COULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK TO THE SW OFF
THE TX COAST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PICKING UP THE SYSTEM
IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME.

INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A EVEN BIGGER QUESTION. THE
NAM/ECMWF REALLY DEEPEN THE SYSTEM...ECMWF MORE SO IN THE
EARLY/MID WEEK TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTENT WITH A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM WHILE THE ECMWF GOES FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE. SINCE
NO SYSTEM HAS FORMED YET...DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH WILL REALLY
PAN OUT. REALITY IS THAT THE WHOLE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON MODELS RESOLVE THE SYSTEM ONCE IT DOES FORM.

IMPACTS FOR SE TX...GIVEN A QUASI STATIONARY LOCATION OFF THE LA
COAST...COULD HAVE LARGE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND IT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX. ALONG THE
COAST...THINK THERE WILL BE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BUT DEPENDS ON
RAINBANDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. COASTAL IMPACTS WILL BE
GREATEST WITH A COASTAL FLOODING...RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALL
POSSIBLE. INLAND FLOODING THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO THE DROUGHT
AND POSSIBLY BEING ON THE W OR NW SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
THE BEST THING TO DO IS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR ANY
CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT WITH YOUR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACT THE AREA.

[bella_may]

Looks like it will be a Nola or biloxi storm

[Diva]

IMPACTS FOR SE TX...GIVEN A QUASI STATIONARY LOCATION OFF THE LA
COAST...COULD HAVE LARGE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND IT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX. ALONG THE
COAST...THINK THERE WILL BE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BUT DEPENDS ON
RAINBANDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. COASTAL IMPACTS WILL BE
GREATEST WITH A COASTAL FLOODING...RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALL
POSSIBLE. INLAND FLOODING THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO THE DROUGHT
AND POSSIBLY BEING ON THE W OR NW SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
THE BEST THING TO DO IS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR ANY
CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT WITH YOUR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACT THE AREA.

NOT what SETX wants or needs to hear. Still praying earnestly for rain!!

[rainstorm]

this drought pattern just doesnt want to break. based on pattern persistence ill guess texas gets nothing more than a few coastal sprinkles from this.

[cycloneye]

70%

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS
ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[dwsqos2]

Although surface observations aren't particularly thrilling. By looking at low cloud motions on shortwave, it's pretty clear that at least near the surface this system is most impressive around ~27N and ~89W, near the convective mass.

[CrazyC83]

Do Gulfstream flights help models when it is just an invest?

[wxman57]

Do Gulfstream flights help models when it is just an invest?

Of course, they do. More data is always good for predicting development and track.

[Portastorm]

Although surface observations aren't particularly thrilling. By looking at low cloud motions on shortwave, it's pretty clear that at least near the surface this system is most impressive around ~27N and ~89W, near the convective mass.

I'm thinking the same thing. A quick perusal of the CIMSS site still shows the 500 and 850 mb vorticity not totally developed (or aligned) yet and shear is still strong. If that shear relaxes some though and the low levels remain this active, it appears this system could ramp up fairly quickly.

[Dean4Storms]

Notice the piece of energy swinging into southern AL and then racing off to the NE along the front in that GFS 06z run? Still think this storm could go either way all depending on exactly where the LLC sets up. I think 100 miles east or west could make all the difference in being left behind in the Gulf or getting picked up to the NE.

[KWT]

Is recon still going to go today or not?

[Cryomaniac]

70%

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS
ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

So much for people saying this would be down to 40%.

[wxman57]

LLC appears to be setting up near 26N/90W.

[wxman57]

I can see an LLC starting to form near 26N/90W, west of the convection. It's still moving northwestward. West wind shear slowly decreasing.

[Graham1973]

That run of the GFS would be very bad for the north central gulf coast...tropical storm or hurricane conditions for days!

That run makes me think of the 7th Hurricane of the 1867 season....

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/1867_Atlantic_hurricane_7_track.png

[ROCK]

I can see an LLC starting to form near 26N/90W, west of the convection. It's still moving northwestward. West wind shear slowly decreasing.

yep...you can see the fanning out of the heaviest convection..that means its going to ramp up sooner rather than later...IMO....NW moving right now and could be inland into SW LA by late tonight....

[Dean4Storms]

LLC appears to be setting up near 26N/90W.

Yep, broad but looks to be a good center.

[ROCK]

shows what SSTs that are hotter than a fire cracker can do....look at it go....

[ROCK]

will be close to inland tonight IMO....current steering...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=