ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[sphelps8681]

So does this look like it is going to be in area of Tx/La.

[Portastorm]

Troy and the rest of the gator hunters from "Swamp People" are going to be drenched the next few days! Definitely not picnic weather this weekend in southern Louisiana.

[ROCK]

So does this look like it is going to be in area of Tx/La.

rain is going to be on the east side....of where it goes inland...if it makes it...then as it loops is when hopefully we get some rain....

[tailgater]

That run of the Euro is depressing, I could use some rain(not like Texas)but nothing close to that intensity. I'll be glad to give this one to Teaxas or anyone else after it drops a few inches over here.
What is that like, a week of intensifing S/E winds and lots of rain then to top it off after we are all soggy major hurricane force winds to knock all the tress down. Thank goodness this is just one run and seems a little unreasonable, no one could handle that but especially us.

[pwrdog]

will be close to inland tonight IMO....current steering...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

It looks like it's just a tick north of due west???

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the NAM was dead on with the weak LLC that started to form yesterday moving north/reforming just south of LA. should develop pretty quickly today. shear will also be on the decrease throughout the day

[underthwx]

Rock...how do we spell relief???........Dr Knabb(Bill Gates' bro?)...keeps us dry..for now...




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[Dave]

Is recon still going to go today or not?

Still scheduled KWT:

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--SUSPECT AREA IN CNTRL GULF
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 01/1630Z
D. 25.0N AND 90.0W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/ 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AT 02/1800Z.

Clearing out regular work here locally to be ready this afternoon.

[Ivanhater]

Just looked at the Euro, gets picked up NE now. I'm getting a feeling this thing loops in the western Gulf then gets picked up NE. If this stays off shore, it could be a big problem for the Gulf coast.

[PauleinHouston]

So does this look like it is going to be in area of Tx/La.

Looks to me like more W/NW movement than NW. I know it was yesterday's TCPOD setup for today, but notice that the longitude from the first fix to the next fix jumps 5 degrees where latitude jumps only .5...their guess yesterday of more Westward motion? Also, that Eastern ridge is diving SE steadily as seen on WV imagery.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311730 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 31 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z AUGUST TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--SUSPECT AREA IN CNTRL GULF
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 01/1630Z
D. 25.0N AND 90.0W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/ 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT

[N2FSU]

Just looked at the Euro, gets picked up NE now. I'm getting a feeling this thing loops in the western Gulf then gets picked up NE. If this stays off shore, it could be a big problem for the Gulf coast.

How far NE Ivan? Near our neck of the woods, or more towards NO or Mobile? What kind of timeframe is it showing for landfall?

[Ivanhater]

Just looked at the Euro, gets picked up NE now. I'm getting a feeling this thing loops in the western Gulf then gets picked up NE. If this stays off shore, it could be a big problem for the Gulf coast.

How far NE Ivan? Near our neck of the woods, or more towards NO or Mobile? What kind of timeframe is it showing for landfall?

Loops around in the Western Gulf then gets picked up NE toward New Orleans, then into Alabama by next Friday,.

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry but this really looks like a child got a hold of the data/mouse and drew all over it lol

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Aric, usually when models look like that it is indicative of a stall or loop in the gulf. Could very well sit there until the next torugh picks it up.

[Aric Dunn]

Just looked at the Euro, gets picked up NE now. I'm getting a feeling this thing loops in the western Gulf then gets picked up NE. If this stays off shore, it could be a big problem for the Gulf coast.

How far NE Ivan? Near our neck of the woods, or more towards NO or Mobile? What kind of timeframe is it showing for landfall?

Loops around in the Western Gulf then gets picked up NE toward New Orleans, then into Alabama by next Friday,.

I think this track is rather strange... lol not sure I have seen anything quite like it.. especially coming from the euro ..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[thetraveler]

We have a nice ene breeze here in the little town of Deer Park Texas this morning. Reminds me of 2001 when I worked across the street from where I am today. I stepped out for a smoke and noticed the wind out of the east. Came back inside and check and sure nuff there was the beginning of Allison. I know the set up isnt the same and we sure dont need that kind of rain but you can always tell when there is something brewing in the gulf with that easterly breeze.

[Stormcenter]

I honestly have a hard time believing this will be around as long as the models
are saying it will but that's just me.

[jabman98]

Heard on the radio this morning during the weather segment that "the models" were sending this rain to the eastern Gulf. That we might get a few showers here in Houston, but that's it. Of course the radio weather guy didn't specify which models.

When I took out the trash today and saw a few neighbors, they're already feeling discouraged that we won't get any of this rain. We're so desperate for it here.

[Flyinman]

If this stalls off the coast of Louisiana, is there still a possibility of it eventually moving SW along the Texas Coast?

[jabman98]

yep...you can see the fanning out of the heaviest convection..that means its going to ramp up sooner rather than later...IMO....NW moving right now and could be inland into SW LA by late tonight....

By late tonight? That's a lot sooner than people were expecting.