ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[RachelAnna]

I don't even know what to think at this point. Friends keep asking me what to expect. You don't want people to let their guard down, but I don't want them to get too excited for rain, either.

[HouTXmetro]

LLC appears to be setting up near 26N/90W.

IF that's the case, will this drastically change the models and tracks? Is this LLC formation far from the recent models initialization? What are you thinking now as far possible track?

[SFLcane]

Anyone got one of those gulf weather temp maps? Would be interesting to see an overlay of the model runs on that...

Once upper level winds turn favorable later today i dont see why this cant become a formidable tropical cyclone in the gulf especially with its very slow movement. I think a VERY serious flooding potential might be setting up with 20+inches in some areas.



Crazy Gulf ssts...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well I'm lucky enough to have one more vacation day today, so I can sit home and watch this evolve. Interesting that our local BTR/NO office got a lot more conservative since yesterday and is now calling for a hybrid/sub-tropical development. Have issued a flood watch for SE LA (one parish just south of me) for upwards of 12" of rain. Also said it is just the first forecast and accumulations could very likely go up from here depending on how this evolves. Anyway here is the read...

LONG TERM...
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OR MORE...MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF JUST OFF
THE LOUISIANA COAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A
SUBTROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM OF SORTS. THE MAIN CONCERN ISNT SO MUCH
WHETHER ITS COMPLETELY TROPICAL OR NOT AND ITS INTENSITY BUT RATHER
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS EVENT. THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A
GENERAL LACK OF RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY...THE BASIC
AGREEMENT IS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. SO...BIGGEST CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST IS THE RATHER LARGE
INCREASE IN AREAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.



SLEW OF MULTIPLE TROPICAL MODELS...IT WOULD TAKE A BOOK TO DESCRIBE
THEM AS THE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY WIDELY SPREAD IN TRACKS AND TIMING.
THEY SEEM TO ZIG ZAG OFF THE LA COAST AND THE LOW COULD BE ANYWHERES
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO EASTERN GULF IN 5 DAYS ACCORDING TO THESE
MODELS.

SO...LOOKING AT ALL THIS MODEL DATA...DIFFERENT ONES HAVE
SIMILARITIES IN PARTS OF ITS SOLUTIONS WITH OTHERS. WITH THE
FORECAST...HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL OF THESE
RESULTS INTO A SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THE RESULT IS THAT
THERE SHOULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LA/MS MAINLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THINKING IS
THAT THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 3
INCHES OVER FARTHER INLAND AREAS SUCH AS BATON ROUGE AND THEN
UPWARDS TO POSSIBLY NEAR 1 FOOT ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA PARISHES.
ALL IS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 2.65+ INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AT MSY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SO...WILL BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING ENVIRONMENT
WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. GOING WITH THIS THEME...WILL BE ISSUING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH FCST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. DECIDED ON
ASSUMPTION PARISH TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS
COASTAL MS COUNTIES. FOR TIMING...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SO FRI-12Z TO MON-00Z.
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WATCH COULD EXPANDED NORTH AND TIME MAY BE
LENGTHENED WITH LATER FCSTS BUT FOR NOW IS THE BEST FIRST GUESS.
JUST LOOKS TO BE LIKE TOO WET OF A SCENARIO ABOUT TO PLAY OUT TO
NOT HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THE WEEKEND. COULD BE A FAIRLY WET
OR DRIER START TO THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS.

[wxman57]

The HWRF is the outlier in taking "Lee" (or Maria) to the northeast toward Panama City. All other models now go for the stall then SW to west movement.

[Stormcenter]

It looks like whatever is "trying" form is a lot further north then
what we were looking at yesterday. To my eyes it's south of the SE LA.
coastline and moving NW just like wxman57 said. Didn't the NAM
see this on Monday?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

Got to remember that besides the gulf loop most of the gulf is fairly shallow and upwelling will be a problem if it sits in that same general area the models are saying.,

[Portastorm]

It looks like whatever is "trying" form is a lot further north then
what we were looking at yesterday. To my eyes it's south of the SE LA.
coastline and moving NW just like wxman57 said. Didn't the NAM
see this on Monday?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Right ... we're looking at the area of 26/90 in the Gulf. And yes, I do believe the NAM saw this earlier this week.

[Rockin4NOLA]

thanks...boy....20" of rain in a short period of time....

My worry is that it just flat out stalls just SW of the new orleans area and then slowly drifts NE until the trough really grabs it and pulls it out to the NE. I'm not sure even our "reconstructed levees" could hold that much water in some parts around here...

[ROCK]

Got to remember that besides the gulf loop most of the gulf is fairly shallow and upwelling will be a problem if it sits in that same general area the models are saying.,

the LLC thats trying to form is exposed and moving to the WNW...being sheared off....IMO it will be inland in SW LA to TX in the early morning or late late tonight...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Anyone got one of those gulf weather temp maps? Would be interesting to see an overlay of the model runs on that...

RockNO, can't post you a map but can tell you I was in Hopedale(southern end of Bay Eloi)fishing about 2 weeks ago and my fishfinder said the water temp where I was in 6-10ft of water was 90*

[BigA]

12Z NAM (And I'll be charitable to the NAM since it is dealing with a system around 28 N, not in the deep tropics) develops the low near where it seems to be now, then meanders it south of the Louisiana coast while deepening it.

[ConvergenceZone]

will be close to inland tonight IMO....current steering...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

Hmm, I'm confused, if it may be moving inland tonight/tomorrow, why would anyone be worried about a tropical storm/hurricane? It doesn't sound like it would even have much time to develop?....

[Portastorm]

When quoting someone else's post, please remove the image tags!

With Katia and 93L, action is heating up on this forum. The mods are not going to have time to remove images from quoted posts and we're going to just have to delete them. So, for your own sake as well as ours, please follow this policy. Thanks.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing several reports of 35kt SE winds already, which means another one skipping the TD stage and going straight to TS. No clear LLC yet, though.

[Ivanhater]

True enough Wxman, except the Euro is not on that map and takes it NE like the HWRF.

[Stormcenter]

That's what I'm seeing but who knows with these things.

Got to remember that besides the gulf loop most of the gulf is fairly shallow and upwelling will be a problem if it sits in that same general area the models are saying.,

the LLC thats trying to form is exposed and moving to the WNW...being sheared off....IMO it will be inland in SW LA to TX in the early morning or late late tonight...

[BigA]

will be close to inland tonight IMO....current steering...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

Hmm, I'm confused, if it may be moving inland tonight/tomorrow, why would anyone be worried about a tropical storm/hurricane? It doesn't sound like it would even have much time to develop?....

Because not one of the models has it inland by tonight, or really even tomorrow night. The steering is expected to collapse today.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm seeing several reports of 35kt SE winds already, which means another one skipping the TD stage and going straight to TS. No clear LLC yet, though.

yep. still too broad for an upgrade.

[MGC]

Just had a passing shower. The moisture has really increased since yesterday. Don't see a LL circulation on the sat loop but 93L looks to have plenty of time to spin up. Shear has not dropped off much overnight.....MGC