ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Latest steering... ridging continues to build westward with Katia. unless that stops I see no real reason for a turn beyond 285


loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

[Jevo]

12z GFS on deck and running

[chris_fit]

[quote="gatorcane"]Looks like the UKMET 00Z is building a strong Bermuda High ridge overtop and bending it back west at 120 hours:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... tLoop.html

]http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/9469/00zukmet500mbhghtpmsltr.gifquote]


With that trough on the EC there is no way Katia is getting much farther west...

[Aric Dunn]

GFS at 12 hrs keeps katia heading due west vs the 6z motion of wnw.. hmmm will it continue..

[stewart715]

Weather Channel convinced Katia is going out to sea, with a possible impact on Bermuda. Their tropics hype machine is focused on the Gulf of Mexico invest.

They don't want to invest time in something that doesn't have a definite impact on CONUS -- primarily because they misforecasted the strength of Irene (as did every meteorologist in the country, not their fault). Lee will 95% have an impact somewhere in the US and Katia will probably have a 15% chance of impacting CONUS (as of right now). That's why we're here. To make our own predictions

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is completely exposed now..

[Lowpressure]

It seems as though this is the year that models fail to correctly forecast shear. Last year the fail was ULL's.

[Aric Dunn]

so far 30 hrs.. not too much change... just the low off the east coast seems a little weaker ..

[HurricaneWarning92]

Seems to me Katia is throwing some 'unexpected' surprises...

[Hurricaneman]

I'll say one cant be comfortable with this weaker because the mid to upper level weaknesses wouldn't be as able to take this out to sea, some anxious moments if this stays weaker and bombs out later on and turn north farther west of the expected turn, so in that vain, I think that ULL gets out of the way, this bombs out in a day or so and goes fishing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jhpigott]

so far 30 hrs.. not too much change... just the low off the east coast seems a little weaker ..

any updates on the 12z GFS?

[stewart715]

I asked Dr. Knabb of TWC on Twitter why GFS is so far east while other models are west and his response:

"Subtle differences handling west Atlantic non-tropical lows."
-@TWCDrKnabb

[Aric Dunn]

Nogaps a little farther to west.. and more of a west bend.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Also if you look at the models that keep a more westerly track and then bend it west they kick the LOW off the NC coast out to see in 36 to 48 hours where as the GFS keeps that low there for over 4 days !! which is highly unlikely.

[Jevo]

12Z GFS +120 (busy here at work)

[Aric Dunn]

I asked Dr. Knabb of TWC on Twitter why GFS is so far east while other models are west and his response:

[im]http://i.imwx.com/web/news/2011/april/rick-knabb-bio-pic.jpg[/img]
"Subtle differences handling west Atlantic non-tropical lows."
-@TWCDrKnabb

haha just posted in the model thread how the different models are handling that low off NC

[Aric Dunn]

and at 126 hours.. katia merges with the left over low off NC that has been sitting there for over 5 days... lol

[Aric Dunn]

Im not going to include the GFS till can resolve this low issue. its the only model that keeps it around for over 5 days.. basically in the same spot

not only that it leaves LEE over the the LA/AR/AL area for 7 days !! talk about flooding.. geez

[Jevo]

12Z GFS +168

[Aric Dunn]

little comparison though... this run of the GFS is much much different than any other run its had. it really really wanted to turn it west but it just got to far north .... 6z already had this accelerating NE this run its still drifting nw at 180 hrs...

12z 180 hrs




6z

[bobbisboy]

Aric,

Fujiwara off of Lee? Sure seems a possibility if Lee remnants are where this run shows them to be. Thoughts?