ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[tigergirl]

Getting our first rains right now in Larose.

[Aric Dunn]

Getting our first rains right now in Larose.

from what the GFS is saying you have 10 more days of it. .lol better get a boat if that happens..

[tigergirl]

I have and my hip boots ready....

We are suppose to head out to Dallas for the big game early Saturday morning. Might change our plans and leave tomorrow afternoon.

[Rgv20]

I see that the 12zGFS wants to take 93L east....Still would like to see the ECMWF as the 0zEnsemble Mean was in very good agreement with the operational run thru 120hrs in having 93L south of LA.

[Andy_L]

so if you see the animals pairing up, you'll know the GFS is going to be correct?

[MONTEGUT_LA]

I'm at work in Bourg and it is raining off and on. Glad i'm off the weekend and monday.

[Sabanic]

Looks like the makings of a huge rain event for many along the Northern Gulf Coast. Just hoping it doesn't become much more than that.

[Houstonia]

Are models still showing it hitting LA and then bouncing off and coming west or southwest? (Please please please let it be so). Someone tell me the GFDL is a REALLY good model for these situations?

They are forecasting a 40 percent chance of rain Friday through Monday in Houston. Is that just wishful thinking, or do we even stand a chance??

[tigergirl]

Anyone's thoughts on the Euro from last night?

[PTrackerLA]

This afternoon's Euro will be huge. If it joins the GFS we need to start preparing for a huge flood event in this state. If it continues to keep a storm offshore and intensifies into a major cane we have even more problems next week.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I was in my computer room reading the latest on 93L when I heard a loud thump, so i go outside and to my dismay my Queen's Island palm that was 28ft tall is now 6ft, it just snapped off in about a 20mph gust. luckly it missed my house but dam I really liked that tree.

I wonder if that had to do with how dry its been as well? Was just about to post how things are looking outside with the clouds building and starting to really cruise across the sky from east to west. Also looking south it is getting a lot darker by the hour as well. The wind is definitely starting to pick up. Been blowing all morning 15-20mph. Can definitely tell something is out brewing in the gulf.

Back to the tress breaking under the dry conditions. I shudder to think what will happen if 93 does develop even into a minimal hurricane. Limbs and tress will snap like match sticks being so dry, then throw in an easy 10-20in of rain probably more and the ground will be so saturated trees will just topple over rootball and all. Has the potential to be worse than Gustav was around here IMO.

[HeeBGBz]

The clouds have been dark and ominous looking out over the gulf here in Biloxi this morning. We have a significant breeze also. Gonna make for an interesting Labor Day weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

Are models still showing it hitting LA and then bouncing off and coming west or southwest? (Please please please let it be so). Someone tell me the GFDL is a REALLY good model for these situations?

They are forecasting a 40 percent chance of rain Friday through Monday in Houston. Is that just wishful thinking, or do we even stand a chance??

yeah there are a few models doing that still and some that are not.. the forecast is going to be tricking and we wont know much till it develops. either way looks like it might be around for awhile.

[wxman57]

Certainly the potential for major flooding across south LA as it develops and meanders around near the LA coast over the weekend, regardless of whether it eventually tracks southwest or northeast. GFS may tend to be a bit strong with the trof to the north, that's why it's been leaning NE vs. the other models.

[BigB0882]

This is looking worse and worse. I don't know if it would be better to have this thing stall over land so the wind isn't so bad or if it would be better to have it go back out in the Gulf and give us a little break before coming back last the 0z Euro, but that came back very strong so the wind would be horrible while it is here. If it does stall on land, we shouldn't have too much wind, right? I can't imagine it getting very strong before landfall and it cant keep it up over land. The worst is it stalling just offshore and then the wind would be constant. Hmmm....no one is talking about this around here, either. The flooding could put Allison to shame.

[PTrackerLA]

Honestly since this looks to be a significant impact event I hope it gets classified later today even if its rather disorganized. It would help alert the public to the danger given the long holiday weekend ahead and hopefully try to make some sense out of this model mess!

[Jagno]

Now this is the perfect time to tell us:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... -to-ge.asp
New Orleans Levees About to Get Near-Failing Grade



By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist

Sep 1, 2011; 12:02 PM ET

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A seagull lands on the 17th Street levee near a breach repaired with metal reinforcements (behind the birds) on Saturday, Feb. 18, 2006, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

In the face of the threat of a developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, the New Orleans area dikes are about to get a near-failing grade from the new Army Corps of Engineers rating system.

"Preliminary rankings... show that the corps believes there's still a significant risk of flooding from major hurricanes or river floods that are greater than the design heights of Mississippi River levees and hurricane levees on both the east and west banks," Mark Schleifstein with the Times-Picayune reported Monday.

Schleifstein stressed, however, that the near-failing grades applied to storms larger than what the levees are built to withstand.

"The hurricane and river levees are designed to protect from surge created by a so-called 100-year hurricane, or a storm with a 1 percent chance of occurring," Schleifstein explained. "The ratings show that 500-year events, with a 0.2 percent chance of occurring in any year, will overtop the levees and cause significant flooding."

"The chances of failures for flood events involving water levels below the authorized 100-year heights were adequate," he went on to say.

So while it would take an extremely rare hurricane, such as Katrina, to cause the levee systems in New Orleans to fail, there are still major concerns about the flood potential from the system currently developing in the Gulf.

[HouTXmetro]

Are models still showing it hitting LA and then bouncing off and coming west or southwest? (Please please please let it be so). Someone tell me the GFDL is a REALLY good model for these situations?

They are forecasting a 40 percent chance of rain Friday through Monday in Houston. Is that just wishful thinking, or do we even stand a chance??

This isn't the model's thread, but at least from the major models most recent set of runs indicates whatever moves NW towards LA/TX...stalling or moving SW towards TX/MX as the Ridge builds in. The GFS even showed this on the prior run. But with week steering currents and all models showing this hanging around all bets are off at this point.

[clfenwi]

A NOAA plane is in the air:

URNT15 KWBC 011630
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 02 20110901
162030 2744N 08227W 7631 02503 0197 +121 +082 172005 005 /// /// 03
162100 2744N 08230W 7534 02610 0200 +112 +075 174005 005 /// /// 03
162130 2744N 08232W 7420 02738 0195 +110 +072 165007 009 /// /// 03
162200 2744N 08234W 7307 02867 0191 +107 +058 157009 009 /// /// 03
162230 2743N 08236W 7225 02960 0190 +103 +043 136008 008 /// /// 03
162300 2743N 08238W 7147 03052 0190 +097 +039 137009 009 /// /// 03
162330 2743N 08241W 7065 03149 0192 +088 +039 131010 010 /// /// 03
162400 2743N 08243W 6974 03253 0195 +079 +049 124010 011 /// /// 03
162430 2743N 08245W 6900 03342 0194 +073 +053 126010 011 /// /// 03
162500 2743N 08248W 6805 03459 0196 +066 +048 118011 012 /// /// 03
162530 2742N 08250W 6735 03543 0196 +060 +045 122013 013 /// /// 03
162600 2742N 08252W 6643 03655 0199 +051 +041 121013 013 /// /// 03
162630 2742N 08255W 6547 03774 0199 +045 +038 118015 015 /// /// 03
162700 2742N 08257W 6531 03794 0196 +045 +036 117016 016 021 000 00
162730 2742N 08259W 6491 03843 0190 +044 +033 112015 015 023 000 00
162800 2742N 08302W 6480 03859 0194 +042 +032 108016 017 022 001 03
162830 2742N 08305W 6476 03864 0193 +043 +031 102015 016 023 000 00
162900 2741N 08307W 6468 03875 0194 +041 +030 098015 015 023 000 00
162930 2741N 08310W 6486 03851 0196 +040 +029 097015 016 022 000 00
163000 2742N 08312W 6474 03864 0198 +039 +023 093015 015 022 000 00

[tropicwatch]

I didn't see it scheduled but apparently Kermit is up.