ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1481 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:43 am

bobbisboy wrote:Aric,

Fujiwara off of Lee? Sure seems a possibility if Lee remnants are where this run shows them to be. Thoughts?



should be too far away in this run.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1482 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:44 am

LoL if the GFS verifies I forsee some prime real estate in Bermuda..

12Z GFS +240 (Off to the Flemish Cap..... Cause thats where the fish are)

Image
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#1483 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:54 am

cmc is back to its more westerly track....

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1484 Postby bobbisboy » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The center is completely exposed now..




[img]http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/1893/rgbl.jpg[/mg]


yeah really looks like she's decoupling... would argue further west ?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1485 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:23 pm

Starting to feel the effects of the dry air to it's west and that Ginormous ULL just to it's NW. Definitely going to impact how deep this system will be and which steering currents are going to be affecting it. Interesting...

Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1486 Postby jhpigott » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:25 pm

Not that I think it's going to have any long term impacts on track, but if Katia remains on her current course and heading for another 6-12 hours, she is going to miss the next NHC forecast point to the S by maybe .5 degrees

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1487 Postby ncweatherwizard » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:25 pm

A weak storm might at most clip some of the Leeward Islands in a few days. There's just not enough ridging for a more southerly track, and there won't be enough ridging to bring Katia to the US either. An impact to Bermuda remains very possible, and one cannot rule out an eventual impact to some part of Atlantic Canada.
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#1488 Postby Shuriken » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:26 pm

Hah! ...I said a day ago that I thought an easterly surge would shove the center out the west side of the convection.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1489 Postby BigA » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:26 pm

12Z GFS ensembles west of the operational, per usual. Splits the uprights between Bermuda and the US, looks a bit closer to the east coast than Bermuda.
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#1490 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:28 pm

No recurve for the CMC straight west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re:

#1491 Postby jhpigott » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:No recurve for the CMC straight west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


doesn't look due west to me. Sure, further west than the GFS and EURO but there looks to be a big weakness at the end of the run for Katia to go fishing
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Re: Re:

#1492 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:33 pm

jhpigott wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:No recurve for the CMC straight west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


doesn't look due west to me. Sure, further west than the GFS and EURO but there looks to be a big weakness at the end of the run for Katia to go fishing



looks west to me. 280 .. hard to tell exactly. also that is the surface ridging there is some riding left at 500mb


notice the large 500 mb ridge north of it in green .. thats what turns it westerly..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1493 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:33 pm

Ahhh, upper level lows. They love decapitating Tropical systems.

You can see it's very close to an area of 30+ KTS of shear. I am surprised most people didn't see this coming. That ULL doesn't seem to be moving any time soon.

Image
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#1494 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:44 pm

Looks like the cyclone is becoming shallower and heading more west, could easily miss the next forecast point. If this keeps up, expect another westward shift in the track.
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#1495 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:44 pm

she heading DUE west

you can see the center half exposed on the western side of the convection ... if you turn on the lat and lon you can see its riding the 15.5 line I cant see and northerly component . right now.. and will soon be passing south of the next forecast point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1496 Postby clfenwi » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:44 pm

12Z HWRF wind swath

Image

Animation (hasn't fully loaded at this moment)
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Re:

#1497 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:she heading DUE west

you can see the center half exposed on the western side of the convection ... if you turn on the lat and lon you can see its riding the 15.5 line I cant see and northerly component . right now.. and will soon be passing south of the next forecast point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


yeah she seems to have made a turn due west. Boy these models are having a hard time this year with these cyclones. She is really get sheared and more low-level flow is starting to take over.

Where the heck is the GFS doing with intensity? Seems way off. NOGAPS, CMC, and UKMET may be on to something.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1498 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:48 pm

clfenwi wrote:12Z HWRF wind swath

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/9021/090112hwfswath.png

Animation (hasn't fully loaded at this moment)


Haha, that's a solid category five :D
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1499 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:49 pm

GFS spaghetti models definitely bring this much closer to the US than before. Difference is being split between the US and Bermuda.

http://tinyurl.com/3hvplms
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#1500 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:49 pm

Why did the HWRF initialize Katia at 981 mb??
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