ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

Rock...you hearing the thunder?

no but I smell it...

looks like center south of LA...big blob of sheared mess...Just hope it gets close enough to sling some showers over here....

[jabman98]

This is so frustrating I feel like I'm gonna cry. We need the rain so badly here. So close and yet so far away.

[HouTXmetro]

So it looks like I lost several hours of sleep the past few nights looking at models for nothing. Hmmm why am I not surprised? Central TX gets screwed again. Ugh, I'm so tired of this crap.

There really is no consensus at this point. Don't give up hope yet. When does the Euro Chime in again?

[Aric Dunn]

recon approaching center.. should find a closed low now... upgrade likely coming at 5..
probably a TS

[KWT]

This reminds me of a June storm. The Jet Stream stayed strong all summer this year.

Yeah it is rather similar to a June system isn't it!

[ROCK]

they are heading exactly where I would put the center....we will know shortly if it has west winds or not..

[stormhunter7]

been studying the shear for a bit now... whats everyones thought on the current trend for the next 24-36 hrs of shear. Rock, Ivanhater....?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 011740
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 09 20110901
173030 2737N 08821W 6488 03821 0110 +073 +058 113024 025 036 012 00
173100 2737N 08824W 6491 03816 0105 +074 +077 111027 028 037 006 00
173130 2736N 08826W 6486 03821 0118 +067 +063 110028 028 034 000 00
173200 2736N 08829W 6487 03821 0117 +069 +052 111027 028 038 004 00
173230 2736N 08831W 6486 03822 0116 +068 +056 119029 030 039 001 00
173300 2736N 08834W 6487 03820 0120 +066 +047 117030 031 033 004 00
173330 2736N 08836W 6487 03819 0115 +069 +050 109028 029 031 002 00
173400 2735N 08839W 6485 03819 0103 +076 +038 108025 026 033 000 00
173430 2735N 08842W 6486 03819 0098 +080 +032 110026 026 032 001 00
173500 2735N 08845W 6487 03819 0099 +079 +038 109029 030 031 000 00
173530 2735N 08847W 6485 03820 0108 +073 +048 123030 031 030 000 03
173600 2734N 08850W 6485 03821 0102 +078 +042 122021 025 031 000 00
173630 2732N 08852W 6486 03820 0102 +078 +031 116017 017 034 002 00
173700 2730N 08853W 6488 03816 0100 +079 +023 117014 015 032 000 00
173730 2729N 08855W 6488 03813 0097 +081 +014 119013 013 032 000 00
173800 2727N 08857W 6488 03812 0091 +084 +006 121013 014 033 000 00
173830 2725N 08858W 6490 03809 0093 +083 +007 118015 015 033 000 00
173900 2724N 08900W 6489 03809 0092 +083 +012 117016 016 033 000 00
173930 2722N 08902W 6489 03810 0093 +082 +020 116016 017 033 000 00
174000 2721N 08904W 6489 03810 0099 +078 +025 123019 021 034 000 03

[Ivanhater]

Even if this does eventually head NE, I really hope the shear calms down so convection can wrap around on the western side and give Texas much needed tropical rain.

[jabman98]

This reminds me of a June storm. The Jet Stream stayed strong all summer this year.

Yeah it is rather similar to a June system isn't it!

Does that mean the season is just starting? Will we have tropical systems until December?

[South Texas Storms]

So it looks like I lost several hours of sleep the past few nights looking at models for nothing. Hmmm why am I not surprised? Central TX gets screwed again. Ugh, I'm so tired of this crap.

There really is no consensus at this point. Don't give up hope yet. When does the Euro Chime in again?

Well last night the CMC and GFS showed SE TX getting lots of rain as the system moved WSW down the coast. Now both of those models moved it NE and gave TX nothing. You don't think that is a cause for concern?

If the Euro shifts east, I give up. And I'm not feeling optimistic about the Euro right now.

[ROCK]

been studying the shear for a bit now... whats everyones thought on the current trend for the next 24-36 hrs of shear. Rock, Ivanhater....?

another 24hrs is my guess before it gets better...at least thats what the models think...if you believe the models...

[BigB0882]

I am also guessing it will be upgraded right to a TS. A nasty ugly sheared TS but TS none the less.

[HouTXmetro]

I think I can see an LLC trying to wrap up near 27N 91W

[South Texas Storms]

Even if this does eventually head NE, I really hope the shear calms down so convection can wrap around on the western side and give Texas much needed tropical rain.

Ha, who are you kidding Ivan. I'm starting to feel like we aren't going to get a freakin drop here. This will be almost as heartbreaking as Don. Drought busting rains just 100 miles away. Wow. This is about as bad as it gets.

[PTrackerLA]

There's a noticeable breeze today and it's much cooler than it has been with puffy cumulous passing. Better mow the grass this evening . Love bugs are also out in full force suddenly. Distinctly remember them all over the place preparing for Gustav (3 years ago today).

[Ivanhater]

Even if this does eventually head NE, I really hope the shear calms down so convection can wrap around on the western side and give Texas much needed tropical rain.

Ha, who are you kidding Ivan. I'm starting to feel like we aren't going to get a freakin drop here. This will be almost as heartbreaking as Don. Drought busting rains just 100 miles away. Wow. This is about as bad as it gets.

You are cracking under the pressure STS. This is the way of the tropics, it gives and takes away. Be patient.

[Dave]

[South Texas Storms]

Even if this does eventually head NE, I really hope the shear calms down so convection can wrap around on the western side and give Texas much needed tropical rain.

Ha, who are you kidding Ivan. I'm starting to feel like we aren't going to get a freakin drop here. This will be almost as heartbreaking as Don. Drought busting rains just 100 miles away. Wow. This is about as bad as it gets.

You are cracking under the pressure STS. This is the way of the tropics, it gives and takes away. Be patient.

What do you mean I'm cracking under the pressure. I don't understand. And it sure does seem like it takes away a lot more than it gives.
Do you think last night's 0z GFDL/CMC runs have any chance of verifying?

[Snow Deprived365]

Im curious to see how wide the 5 day cone will be if its upgraded.