ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

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Mattie
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#821 Postby Mattie » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:27 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Swimdude wrote:If you don't live in Texas / Louisiana or have visited in the past 3 months, you're only seeing the drought from a meterological point of view. The drought has been a financial disaster, an environmental disaster, and for many, a psychological disaster. Some places have had under an inch all summer. It's terrible to have so many close calls--yet no rain, no rain, no rain.

You should see the interstates... Lined with trees, but most of them brown and dead or well on their way.



Oh yeah, it's absolute brutal here. It's so depressing seeing all the grass dead and brown and trees falling. It makes me want to cry. :cry: :cry:


Seriously - think about wind and dead trees - not a good combination at all. We were in East Texas this weekend - minding our own business - and a huge limb fell out of an oak tree nearby. Could have meant serious injury and that wasn't with any wind at all. . . . Send rain - no wind.
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#822 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:28 pm

It's one run, but that's a wrap folks.... the almighty EURO has now joined the GFS in which we bash so much. Looks like TX will be high and Dry. With ETA being so close It's hard to argue against NE now....In my unprofessional opinion.... Looks like this may affect my road trip to Georgia tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#823 Postby jabman98 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:30 pm

Mattie wrote:Seriously - think about wind and dead trees - not a good combination at all. We were in East Texas this weekend - minding our own business - and a huge limb fell out of an oak tree nearby. Could have meant serious injury and that wasn't with any wind at all. . . . Send rain - no wind.

Yeah, this is happening all over the place. Cars parked under trees are taking a risk because big branches just fall off. People who walk or run in a tree-filled area are also taking a chance. If you drive a certain route, like to work, from one day to another you'll see big branches just falling off or even trees falling over. It's scarily dry.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#824 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:31 pm

EURO has been nails once it has a center to fix on.especially in the short term...how about we wait for a center before we all jump ship :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#825 Postby Houstonia » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:32 pm

Mattie wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Swimdude wrote:If you don't live in Texas / Louisiana or have visited in the past 3 months, you're only seeing the drought from a meterological point of view. The drought has been a financial disaster, an environmental disaster, and for many, a psychological disaster. Some places have had under an inch all summer. It's terrible to have so many close calls--yet no rain, no rain, no rain.

You should see the interstates... Lined with trees, but most of them brown and dead or well on their way.



Oh yeah, it's absolute brutal here. It's so depressing seeing all the grass dead and brown and trees falling. It makes me want to cry. :cry: :cry:


Seriously - think about wind and dead trees - not a good combination at all. We were in East Texas this weekend - minding our own business - and a huge limb fell out of an oak tree nearby. Could have meant serious injury and that wasn't with any wind at all. . . . Send rain - no wind.


OFF TOPIC: Same thing in southwest Houston - I heard a sound like a car door closing - after a bit, the neighbor came over and asked for my help. The family's English isn't very good, and their neighbor's tree had suddenly, out of nowhere, cracked and half of it fell on their cars. Our neighbor speaks Spanish, but their neighbor speaks Chinese. I had to go and using bad Spanish and sign language, try to explain what they should do next!!!

Sorry - back on Invest 93L topic!!!
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#826 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:33 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 011820
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 13 20110901
181030 2633N 08958W 9584 00463 0099 +239 +237 163013 013 036 008 00
181100 2632N 08959W 9584 00463 0098 +242 +239 157013 014 029 001 00
181130 2631N 09001W 9583 00463 0097 +244 +240 158013 014 026 000 00
181200 2629N 09002W 9583 00463 0097 +245 +235 157012 013 026 000 00
181230 2628N 09004W 9584 00460 0096 +248 +232 155010 011 026 000 00
181300 2627N 09005W 9584 00460 0096 +248 +232 152009 009 026 000 00
181330 2626N 09007W 9585 00460 0095 +251 +227 146007 008 026 000 00
181400 2624N 09008W 9584 00460 0094 +252 +228 147007 007 027 000 00
181430 2623N 09009W 9584 00460 0094 +251 +230 147006 007 026 000 00
181500 2622N 09011W 9584 00460 0094 +249 +233 152007 008 026 000 00
181530 2620N 09012W 9584 00460 0095 +248 +234 155007 008 026 000 00
181600 2619N 09014W 9582 00463 0095 +250 +235 150008 011 026 000 00
181630 2618N 09015W 9584 00464 0098 +254 +226 134005 007 024 000 00
181700 2616N 09016W 9583 00465 0099 +252 +229 152003 003 025 000 00
181730 2615N 09018W 9585 00464 0099 +252 +230 172003 004 025 000 00
181800 2614N 09019W 9585 00464 0099 +252 +232 160004 004 025 000 00
181830 2612N 09021W 9583 00468 0102 +251 +235 131005 005 025 000 00
181900 2611N 09022W 9586 00465 0102 +253 +230 082003 005 023 000 00
181930 2610N 09024W 9584 00465 0100 +253 +231 077002 003 023 000 00
182000 2609N 09025W 9584 00465 0099 +254 +231 137001 002 023 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#827 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:34 pm

ROCK wrote:EURO has been nails once it has a center to fix on.especially in the short term...how about we wait for a center before we all jump ship :wink:


We shall see....I'm hopeful that we can get something out of this... IT'S SO FREAKING CLOSE...I'm on edge now. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#828 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:34 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Yeah, that's true. You haven't given up hope yet?


No, not at all. We don't even have a center of circulation yet. We have a decent idea but not one yet and these kinds of systems often re-locate their centers. Could be further south or further east. Or not at all.

The models are trying to tune into the strength of this weekend's trough and it's not even on the West Coast yet ... point is ... still too many unknowns.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Recon Discussion

#829 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:34 pm

*Plays Jeopardy theme music*
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#830 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:35 pm

I see the center now which just poofed a tower only to be sheared off to the NE......extrapolate that center with present movement I think some will be surprised...just sayin.... :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#831 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:36 pm

ROCK wrote:EURO has been nails once it has a center to fix on.especially in the short term...how about we wait for a center before we all jump ship :wink:


Alright Rock, you convinced to keep the hope for another 12 hours. If the 0z models continue to show it moving NE away from us, I give up. I'm not staying up for any models tonight though. Too sleepy and too high of a risk of going to bed very sad.
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#832 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:36 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#833 Postby DJJordan » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:37 pm

ROCK wrote:I see the center now which just poofed a tower only to be sheared off to the NE......extrapolate that center with present movement I think some will be surprised...just sayin.... :wink:



I did just that about 10 minutes ago LOL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#834 Postby Comanche » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:39 pm

ROCK wrote:I see the center now which just poofed a tower only to be sheared off to the NE......extrapolate that center with present movement I think some will be surprised...just sayin.... :wink:


Will you replace my half-empty glass with your half-full one?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#835 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:42 pm

Portastorm wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Yeah, that's true. You haven't given up hope yet?


No, not at all. We don't even have a center of circulation yet. We have a decent idea but not one yet and these kinds of systems often re-locate their centers. Could be further south or further east. Or not at all.

The models are trying to tune into the strength of this weekend's trough and it's not even on the West Coast yet ... point is ... still too many unknowns.


True, but doesn't the trend of a stronger trough with the 12z runs concern you a bit? When can we start trusting the models more? It could be making landfall in a few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#836 Postby djmikey » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:42 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
ROCK wrote:EURO has been nails once it has a center to fix on.especially in the short term...how about we wait for a center before we all jump ship :wink:


Alright Rock, you convinced to keep the hope for another 12 hours. If the 0z models continue to show it moving NE away from us, I give up. I'm not staying up for any models tonight though. Too sleepy and too high of a risk of going to bed very sad.

LOL - Im with you there STS!
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#837 Postby bayoubebe » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:43 pm

Having short periods of rainfall and a little windy here in NOLA area.
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#838 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:43 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 011830
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 14 20110901
182030 2607N 09027W 9583 00466 0100 +254 +232 118002 002 023 000 00
182100 2606N 09028W 9583 00467 0101 +254 +228 138002 003 023 000 00
182130 2605N 09030W 9584 00466 0101 +255 +229 156003 003 025 000 00
182200 2603N 09031W 9584 00466 0101 +255 +225 162002 002 023 000 00
182230 2602N 09033W 9585 00466 0102 +254 +229 140003 003 023 000 00
182300 2601N 09034W 9585 00468 0104 +253 +234 140002 002 023 000 00
182330 2559N 09035W 9586 00466 0103 +253 +237 154002 002 024 000 00
182400 2558N 09037W 9585 00466 0103 +253 +236 161002 002 024 000 00
182430 2557N 09038W 9586 00467 0103 +253 +237 162002 002 023 000 00
182500 2555N 09040W 9587 00465 0103 +254 +234 146002 002 023 000 00
182530 2554N 09041W 9585 00466 0103 +254 +233 155002 002 024 000 00
182600 2553N 09042W 9587 00463 0101 +254 +235 179001 002 024 000 00
182630 2551N 09044W 9586 00465 0101 +254 +233 193001 002 024 000 00
182700 2550N 09045W 9587 00464 0102 +254 +233 219002 002 024 000 00
182730 2549N 09047W 9586 00466 0102 +254 +228 256003 003 023 000 00
182800 2547N 09048W 9585 00466 0102 +254 +229 267004 004 022 000 00
182830 2546N 09050W 9586 00465 0102 +254 +232 282004 004 023 000 00
182900 2545N 09051W 9587 00464 0101 +255 +225 286005 005 022 000 00
182930 2544N 09053W 9588 00464 0102 +254 +231 278005 005 023 000 00
183000 2542N 09054W 9587 00465 0102 +253 +237 285006 006 022 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#839 Postby MGC » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:I can see evidence of a VERY WEAK LLC in the vicinity of 26.8N/91W. Too weak to classify, I think. But it would likely go straight to TS when that LLC gets better-defined. I'd look for an upgrade by 10am tomorrow.



I don't think the NHC will wait that long if recon finds a west wind. They have upgraded some really marginal system this year....bet ya they go straight to TS if they do decide to upgrade.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#840 Postby Flyinman » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:44 pm

http://aviationweather.gov/products/nws/fdwinds/

Winds at 3,000 feet at the closest reporting stations are forecast to be 060@22 and 120@38 over the next 6 hours. 12 hour 037@37 and 110@45.
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