ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[CajunMama]

Some of the oil companies are evacuating their rigs per a longtime friend of mine who works for an oil company.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KWBC 011944
97779 19444 51277 91019 04600 10021 24243 /0010 91290
RMK NOAA2 01HHA INVEST OB 06 KWBC

[Countrygirl911]

As I enjoy maps, here are some I found on accuweather. There are a lot of uncertainties, but just something to look at.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... infall.jpg

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... impact.jpg

wow that has me getting 8 to 16 inches of rain the next few days an i an in SW mississippi about 2 hrs from NOLA. if this sits of the coast of LA would the amount of rain go up to more than that and will the winds be strong the whole time if so i have to get to work on getting the animals locked down and situated for the next 4 to 6 days at least. and make sure our chicken coops are secure and can not move plus move the babies in the brooder iton the coop also. if this all pans out i will be very busy tomorrow

*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags from the quoted post

[baygirl_1]

Well, the weather here is acting like there's something churning in the gulf: hot and muggy then tropical (HEAVY) rain for about 5-10 min then back to hot and muggy. Right now it's rocking and rolling with heavy rain, thunder, and lightning!

[Sabanic]

Same for us here on the west side of Mobile Bay. And that's while it is sitting relatively still before it decides to move. Also that is not taking into account possible strengthening.

[Dave]

Dave, what the data says so far,it suggests an upgrade or not?

To me they're still looking for the center...no sondes in at all yet..even if it was a broad center there'd be more than recco's...winds are there but I'm still hesitant that'll be upgraded at 5 pm. See what the next pass gets.

All I'm getting are turnpoint recco's.

Edit: Now they're going further west...that to me is a good move....we'll see.

[bamajammer4eva]

As I enjoy maps, here are some I found on accuweather. There are a lot of uncertainties, but just something to look at.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... infall.jpg

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... impact.jpg

What in the world? This is supposed to be stalled south of the Louisiana coast and ALL of the rain is going to stop right at the Texas/Louisiana border, per Accuweather? Seriously?

GFS rainfall forecast through 144h cuts the rain amounts quickly along the Tx border. My guess would be because it keeps TX on the west side or dry side of the storm. Could easily drift further west and give y'all some rain.

[gboudx]

Well, the weather here is acting like there's something churning in the gulf: hot and muggy then tropical (HEAVY) rain for about 5-10 min then back to hot and muggy. Right now it's rocking and rolling with heavy rain, thunder, and lightning!

Sounds delightful and better than our 100 with 26% humidity and sunny skies with dry, hard, cracked ground.

[PTrackerLA]

Don't despair yet SG the 18z NAM gives you 5-10" of rain just through Sunday morning. I'm located in the 10"-15" range and the storm is still on top of me at the end of the run .

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 011950
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 22 20110901
194030 2734N 09047W 9598 00453 0101 +246 +230 104019 020 028 000 00
194100 2735N 09049W 9597 00453 0100 +255 +218 107018 018 027 000 00
194130 2737N 09050W 9597 00453 0100 +257 +216 106019 020 028 000 00
194200 2738N 09052W 9598 00454 0101 +255 +223 104022 023 029 000 00
194230 2740N 09053W 9596 00456 0102 +250 +228 104026 027 029 000 00
194300 2741N 09055W 9595 00454 0101 +247 +238 099024 025 027 000 03
194330 2741N 09057W 9597 00454 0101 +247 +238 095025 026 028 000 00
194400 2741N 09100W 9595 00456 0101 +245 +238 096022 024 028 000 00
194430 2741N 09102W 9598 00453 0101 +248 +235 095022 023 028 000 00
194500 2741N 09104W 9596 00454 0101 +250 +229 097020 021 028 000 00
194530 2741N 09107W 9599 00453 0101 +252 +232 100020 021 028 000 00
194600 2741N 09109W 9596 00454 0100 +253 +235 104020 020 029 000 00
194630 2741N 09111W 9598 00453 0100 +253 +237 105020 020 030 000 00
194700 2741N 09113W 9596 00453 0099 +253 +240 105020 020 031 000 00
194730 2741N 09116W 9598 00452 0099 +254 +242 104019 020 030 000 00
194800 2741N 09118W 9597 00452 0098 +256 +240 105018 019 030 000 00
194830 2741N 09120W 9597 00452 0098 +257 +241 107018 018 029 000 00
194900 2741N 09122W 9598 00452 0098 +256 +251 101018 019 031 003 00
194930 2741N 09124W 9597 00452 0097 +261 +238 099018 019 028 000 00
195000 2741N 09127W 9597 00452 0097 +258 +243 094016 017 027 000 00

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KWBC 012000
97779 20004 51276 92100 04700 03017 26243 /0010 40320 93300
RMK NOAA2 01HHA INVEST OB 07 KWBC

[Dave]

DECODED RECCO OB 7

Code: Select all

Product: NOAA Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KWBC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 20:00Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Mission Purpose: Investigate seventh suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 20:00Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 27.6N 92.1W
Location: 181 miles (291 km) to the S (181°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 470 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 30° at 17 knots (From the NNE at ~ 19.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 26°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 30° at 20 knots (From the NNE at ~ 23.0 mph)
Inflight Visibility: Greater than 3 nautical miles
Sea Surface Temperature: 30.0°C


[baygirl_1]

Well, the weather here is acting like there's something churning in the gulf: hot and muggy then tropical (HEAVY) rain for about 5-10 min then back to hot and muggy. Right now it's rocking and rolling with heavy rain, thunder, and lightning!

Sounds delightful and better than our 100 with 26% humidity and sunny skies with dry, hard, cracked ground.

I'm willing to share but Mother Nature isn't cooperating!
Here's a link to the Special Weather Statement from Mobile NWS:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ALZ061&warncounty=ALC097&firewxzone=ALZ061&local_place1=Mobile+Regional+Airport+AL&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
Here's a snippet from it:

AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY EVOLVES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IS UNDER A
THREAT FOR EXTREMELY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD
EXPECTED TO BE FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. IT IS NOT OUT
THE QUESTION FOR SOME AREAS OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA TO RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER ISOLATED AMOUNTS WERE RAINBANDS BECOME ESTABLISHED.

Time to find that copy of Ark Building for Dummies!

[BigB0882]

5-10 inches and the storm still sitting there when that ends. Yikes. I need some rubber boots and a canoe.

[Dave]

[psyclone]

As I enjoy maps, here are some I found on accuweather. There are a lot of uncertainties, but just something to look at.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... infall.jpg

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... impact.jpg

What in the world? This is supposed to be stalled south of the Louisiana coast and ALL of the rain is going to stop right at the Texas/Louisiana border, per Accuweather? Seriously?

these systems do frequently yield a tight precip gradient on their western periphery. whether or not accu weather has the right idea of having that cutoff near the sabine river remains to be seen but the concept certainly makes sense. I'm still rooting for our parched Texas friends:)

[Countrygirl911]

As I enjoy maps, here are some I found on accuweather. There are a lot of uncertainties, but just something to look at.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... infall.jpg

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... impact.jpg

What in the world? This is supposed to be stalled south of the Louisiana coast and ALL of the rain is going to stop right at the Texas/Louisiana border, per Accuweather? Seriously?

GFS rainfall forecast through 144h cuts the rain amounts quickly along the Tx border. My guess would be because it keeps TX on the west side or dry side of the storm. Could easily drift further west and give y'all some rain.

ok correct me if i am wrong but the orange over much of LA ans MS shows 10 inches and the brown on NOLA shows 15 inches am i reading that right also with is still sitting there after the 144h then it would be safe to say the amount would go up

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012000
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 23 20110901
195030 2741N 09129W 9597 00452 0096 +261 +244 089016 017 036 002 00
195100 2741N 09131W 9596 00452 0096 +258 +248 083016 017 030 002 00
195130 2741N 09133W 9596 00451 0094 +262 +237 076016 016 026 000 00
195200 2741N 09135W 9598 00450 0095 +260 +242 069016 016 026 000 00
195230 2741N 09138W 9600 00450 0097 +259 +242 068018 020 027 000 00
195300 2741N 09140W 9596 00452 0097 +258 +242 063020 020 027 000 00
195330 2741N 09142W 9598 00451 0097 +258 +241 057019 020 027 000 00
195400 2741N 09144W 9598 00452 0099 +259 +239 051019 020 028 000 03
195430 2741N 09146W 9589 00461 0099 +259 +240 047019 019 026 000 00
195500 2741N 09149W 9570 00479 0100 +256 +240 046019 020 025 000 00
195530 2741N 09151W 9585 00466 0102 +258 +240 048020 021 027 000 00
195600 2741N 09153W 9584 00470 0102 +258 +238 050019 019 027 000 00
195630 2741N 09155W 9584 00468 0102 +258 +238 047017 017 025 000 00
195700 2741N 09157W 9584 00469 0103 +258 +236 046018 019 025 000 00
195730 2741N 09200W 9580 00474 0104 +259 +231 044017 018 025 000 00
195800 2741N 09202W 9582 00473 0105 +259 +230 045017 018 024 000 00
195830 2741N 09204W 9583 00471 0105 +258 +232 046016 016 025 000 03
195900 2740N 09206W 9586 00468 0103 +259 +233 043016 017 /// /// 03
195930 2738N 09206W 9587 00465 0101 +259 +237 035019 019 027 000 03
200000 2736N 09206W 9584 00468 0101 +258 +240 033018 019 027 000 00

[craptacular]

Do you think they were just looking for some N or NE winds? That last RECCO reported a wind from 30 degrees.

[mf_dolphin]

The orange would be 5-10 inches and the brown would be 10-15