ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[jasons2k]

The model trend today has almost send me to the ledge. I don't think the final nail is in the coffin for a TX miss but I can see the hammer tapping it in now.

Tonight's suite is my last hope for something, unless something drastic happens.

Worst. Drought. Ever.

[Countrygirl911]

The orange would be 5-10 inches and the brown would be 10-15

ty i am new to reading all these different models but since that ends at 144h and after that it will still be hanging around is it safe to say that the amounts will be higer after 144h

[Dave]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

CountryGirl, looks about right . Much of LA & MS could easily see upwards of 10" or more. New Orelans and south could get close to 20.

[Jevo]

I was really hoping that you guys would get a big ole wet TS in Texas... I wouldnt rule anything out now, because as we have been discussing in the Katia model threads right now the troughing that is being depicted in the model runs +72 is sketchy at best.... I'll be doing a rain dance for yall

[Sabanic]

And Southwest Alabama. . .

[HurryKane]

Definitely getting gusty and rainy over here in Bay St. Louis near the beach.

[Portastorm]

The model trend today has almost send me to the ledge. I don't think the final nail is in the coffin for a TX miss but I can see the hammer tapping it in now.

Tonight's suite is my last hope for something, unless something drastic happens.

Worst. Drought. Ever.

My thoughts exactly, my friend. Well written!

Worst. Drought. Ever.
Worst. Summer. Ever.

And the worst one-year drought/heat wave (it is now a fact) in Texas history continues.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012010
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 24 20110901
200030 2734N 09206W 9584 00468 0101 +257 +243 030017 018 026 000 00
200100 2732N 09207W 9587 00464 0101 +259 +237 028018 019 026 000 00
200130 2730N 09207W 9585 00467 0101 +259 +234 027017 018 026 000 00
200200 2728N 09207W 9584 00467 0100 +258 +237 028017 018 025 000 00
200230 2727N 09207W 9584 00467 0100 +259 +233 028017 017 025 000 00
200300 2725N 09206W 9582 00469 0101 +258 +235 028016 017 024 000 00
200330 2723N 09206W 9583 00468 0100 +260 +231 032015 015 024 000 00
200400 2721N 09206W 9585 00466 0100 +260 +232 034014 015 023 000 00
200430 2719N 09206W 9584 00465 0098 +260 +230 033015 016 024 000 00
200500 2717N 09206W 9585 00463 0097 +259 +233 032015 016 025 000 00
200530 2715N 09206W 9585 00462 0095 +260 +229 032017 017 024 000 00
200600 2713N 09206W 9585 00459 0094 +259 +234 030018 018 024 000 00
200630 2711N 09206W 9585 00458 0092 +259 +233 033019 019 023 000 00
200700 2709N 09206W 9584 00459 0092 +258 +236 031018 018 022 000 00
200730 2707N 09206W 9585 00457 0090 +257 +237 032018 018 023 000 00
200800 2705N 09205W 9584 00454 0087 +257 +238 031018 018 025 000 00
200830 2703N 09205W 9584 00457 0089 +257 +236 029017 018 024 000 00
200900 2702N 09204W 9585 00456 0090 +256 +238 032017 019 023 000 00
200930 2700N 09204W 9587 00454 0090 +256 +238 025016 017 025 000 00
201000 2658N 09203W 9587 00454 0088 +258 +235 021017 018 025 000 00

[Stormcenter]

To those worried about those 10" or 15" rain predictions and having a heart attack. Just remember these are the same models that predict the blizzards that never happen in the deep south during Winter time. As I always say I'll believe it when I see it. IMO

[Tireman4]

Agreed Remember, Irene was supposed to hit Houston.....

[Nikki]

The model trend today has almost send me to the ledge. I don't think the final nail is in the coffin for a TX miss but I can see the hammer tapping it in now.

Tonight's suite is my last hope for something, unless something drastic happens.

Worst. Drought. Ever.

My thoughts exactly, my friend. Well written!

Worst. Drought. Ever.
Worst. Summer. Ever.

And the worst one-year drought/heat wave (it is now a fact) in Texas history continues.

I am sorry guys I was truly praying for all of us to get some much needed rain! I will continue to pray for safety for everyone while this all unfolds!

[lebron23]

Hmm..

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

[Dave]

[Clint_TX]

To those worried about those 10" or 15" rain predictions and having a heart attack. Just remember these are the same models that predict the blizzards that never happen in the deep south during Winter time. As I always say I'll believe it when I see it. IMO

Except for the 2005 12" of snow I got at my house the GFS nailed 2 weeks out...

[wxman57]

Hmm..

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

That's looking more likely - move to the mid to SW LA coast, stall, drop south into the Gulf and loop around a bit, then back to the north and possibly NE. SW movement into Texas looking less likely. Guess I'll convert my dead lawn to a rock garden...

[Nikki]

Hmm..

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

That's looking more likely - move to the mid to SW LA coast, stall, drop south into the Gulf and loop around a bit, then back to the north and possibly NE. SW movement into Texas looking less likely. Guess I'll convert my dead lawn to a rock garden...

This is when us folks in Texas knows its over!

[jabman98]

Was just outside and there was a noticeable east wind. A hot, dry feeling wind. The kind we get when there's a tropical system to our east and we're high and dry. Sigh.

Worst summer ever and worst drought ever indeed.

[lebron23]

That map has this system in the eastren texas area..

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012020
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 25 20110901
201030 2656N 09202W 9587 00453 0087 +259 +231 022017 017 026 000 00
201100 2654N 09202W 9586 00456 0090 +253 +239 020017 017 025 000 00
201130 2652N 09201W 9585 00456 0089 +256 +235 019017 017 024 000 00
201200 2651N 09200W 9585 00456 0087 +263 +219 017016 016 024 000 00
201230 2649N 09159W 9587 00451 0085 +266 +221 354017 019 030 002 00
201300 2647N 09159W 9584 00452 0084 +261 +232 347015 016 031 003 00
201330 2645N 09158W 9584 00452 0083 +261 +234 353014 015 025 000 00
201400 2643N 09157W 9587 00448 0083 +260 +226 355015 016 026 000 00
201430 2642N 09156W 9585 00453 0084 +258 +240 009012 013 028 000 00
201500 2640N 09156W 9587 00452 0086 +255 +240 359014 015 020 000 00
201530 2638N 09155W 9584 00455 0087 +256 +236 359013 014 019 000 00
201600 2636N 09155W 9586 00455 0089 +254 +231 000010 012 019 001 03
201630 2634N 09154W 9587 00451 0088 +254 +235 350011 011 020 000 00
201700 2633N 09152W 9587 00451 0087 +252 +237 339012 012 022 000 00
201730 2631N 09151W 9585 00451 0085 +254 +236 344013 013 015 001 00
201800 2629N 09152W 9583 00452 0084 +255 +235 346012 014 019 000 00
201830 2628N 09152W 9586 00451 0085 +256 +233 350014 015 020 000 00
201900 2626N 09153W 9584 00453 0086 +251 +239 346012 013 025 000 00
201930 2624N 09154W 9584 00453 0086 +251 +237 341015 017 028 000 00
202000 2622N 09155W 9589 00449 0086 +257 +233 353020 021 025 000 00