ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

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KWT
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#1021 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:47 pm

Shear is still high for now BUT the system is wrapping up and with shear forecasted to drop I strongly suspect we will have an organising TS sooner then later...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1022 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:48 pm

Meteorcane wrote:What are the odds they drop it to 60% since it is facing so much shear and dry air?


If anything they would raise the precentage since Recon is finding a circulation of some sort.
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#1023 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:48 pm

Image

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#1024 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:48 pm

good pass by recon with a wind shift.. S winds to north winds
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#1025 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:49 pm

000
URNT11 KWBC 012138
97779 21384 51266 92200 04600 36017 26232 /0008 43510 93297
RMK NOAA2 01HHA INVEST OB 10 KWBC
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#1026 Postby HenkL » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:52 pm

Wind shift around 2126Z from S to N with 1008 hPa extrapolated. The plane found all evidence for a closed cyclonic circulation. But the winds around the center are weak. Highest winds were found in the convection to the east, 34 kt at flight level.
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#1027 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:53 pm

Hmmm I think there is probably enough out there to upgrade to at least a depression now...
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#1028 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:53 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 012140
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 33 20110901
213030 2631N 09149W 9588 00441 0077 +254 +235 347007 007 018 000 00
213100 2632N 09150W 9589 00441 0077 +254 +240 340006 006 019 000 00
213130 2633N 09152W 9587 00442 0076 +255 +237 346007 008 020 000 00
213200 2634N 09153W 9589 00441 0077 +257 +230 349007 008 020 000 00
213230 2635N 09155W 9588 00442 0077 +259 +224 344007 008 020 000 00
213300 2636N 09157W 9590 00440 0076 +263 +217 005010 011 019 000 00
213330 2637N 09159W 9590 00441 0077 +257 +227 013012 012 020 000 00
213400 2637N 09200W 9588 00443 0078 +256 +231 007013 014 021 000 00
213430 2638N 09202W 9589 00442 0078 +256 +236 006015 015 021 000 00
213500 2639N 09204W 9590 00445 0081 +257 +231 006016 016 022 000 00
213530 2640N 09205W 9588 00446 0081 +258 +232 011016 016 022 000 00
213600 2641N 09207W 9590 00445 0081 +259 +229 013017 017 023 000 00
213630 2642N 09209W 9590 00445 0081 +259 +229 012018 018 023 000 00
213700 2643N 09210W 9588 00445 0083 +262 +225 015017 018 /// /// 03
213730 2641N 09212W 9590 00445 0083 +260 +232 011017 018 022 000 00
213800 2640N 09212W 9588 00448 0084 +260 +231 002017 017 023 001 00
213830 2638N 09212W 9589 00449 0083 +263 +226 357017 017 022 000 00
213900 2636N 09212W 9589 00448 0084 +264 +222 356016 017 024 000 00
213930 2634N 09212W 9591 00447 0086 +265 +218 351016 017 024 000 00
214000 2632N 09212W 9590 00447 0084 +258 +233 340018 019 023 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1029 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:56 pm

They found a closed LLC. Maybe a special advisory is issued soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1030 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:They found a closed LLC. Maybe a special advisory is issued soon.



Here we go!
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#1031 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:59 pm

Really should be upgraded, I think that should be enough for the NHC to upgrade.

IMO a decent chance of a hurricane IF it can hang offshore for long enough.
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#1032 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:59 pm

Image

Image
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#1033 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:00 pm

I would think they would upgrade.
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#1034 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:01 pm

I almost expect an upgrade. With it being so close to land, they will not take a wait and see approach.
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#1035 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:03 pm

26.4N 91.6W seems to be the center.
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#1036 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:03 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 012150
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 34 20110901
214030 2630N 09212W 9589 00446 0082 +264 +224 340019 019 023 000 00
214100 2628N 09212W 9589 00446 0082 +262 +231 334018 019 022 000 00
214130 2626N 09212W 9590 00445 0082 +262 +232 338017 018 023 000 00
214200 2624N 09212W 9589 00446 0083 +257 +241 342017 017 020 000 00
214230 2622N 09212W 9590 00447 0084 +256 +245 346016 017 020 000 00
214300 2620N 09212W 9590 00447 0084 +257 +242 338018 018 019 000 00
214330 2618N 09212W 9590 00447 0085 +258 +242 333018 018 024 002 00
214400 2616N 09212W 9591 00446 0083 +260 +245 336019 019 025 001 00
214430 2614N 09212W 9591 00445 0082 +262 +236 337019 020 022 000 00
214500 2612N 09212W 9591 00446 0083 +263 +232 339018 019 024 000 00
214530 2611N 09212W 9591 00447 0085 +263 +224 341018 019 022 000 00
214600 2609N 09212W 9590 00448 0088 +265 +212 341018 019 025 000 00
214630 2607N 09212W 9592 00448 0087 +266 +208 334020 022 025 000 00
214700 2605N 09212W 9591 00448 0086 +265 +211 337020 021 026 000 00
214730 2603N 09212W 9588 00447 0083 +261 +231 328016 017 026 000 00
214800 2601N 09212W 9592 00443 0082 +260 +228 334016 017 025 000 00
214830 2559N 09212W 9592 00443 0082 +261 +224 345017 018 026 000 00
214900 2557N 09211W 9592 00443 0082 +261 +225 332018 018 /// /// 03
214930 2558N 09209W 9593 00441 0081 +257 +235 321014 016 021 000 00
215000 2559N 09208W 9592 00440 0080 +255 +240 313012 012 021 000 00
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#1037 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:03 pm

000
URNT11 KWBC 012149
97779 21494 51260 92100 04600 31012 26241 /0008 43515 93301
RMK NOAA2 01HHA INVEST OB 11 KWBC
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Re:

#1038 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:04 pm

KWT wrote:Really should be upgraded, I think that should be enough for the NHC to upgrade.

IMO a decent chance of a hurricane IF it can hang offshore for long enough.



Yep, media will be all over this one, especially if it stays off shore and continues to strengthen, then I agree, a hurricane would be very possible...
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#1039 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:05 pm

Yeah the fact this is quite close to land may well be enough to let the NHC err on the side of a developing system.
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#1040 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:06 pm

Image

Image
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