ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

And there we go..figured it was coming.

[KWT]

Well that was always going to happen given the recon obsevations. IMO the NHC track is going to be quite interesting!!

[lebron23]

Well that was always going to happen given the recon obsevations. IMO the NHC track is going to be quite interesting!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

That is quite interesting...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Interesting and humorous. Instead of the cone of uncertainty will be a big ball of uncertainty in the middle of the gulf.

[HenkL]

Dave, it's up to the NHC to do any upgrades, but I think they will; the facts are there.
It looks like there is another vortex more to the NE, with extrapolated SLP 1007; interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

Finally ...lol

[KWT]

Will probably do a loop in the Gulf then eject to the NE in 72-96hrs, thats what the models suggest, plenty of time to both upwell the waters and also become a hurricane...

[CrazyC83]

Looks like STS or TS Lee?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012230
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 38 20110901
222030 2639N 09053W 6904 03274 0063 +117 +059 141006 007 020 000 00
222100 2640N 09051W 6719 03499 0059 +106 +049 141004 005 018 000 00
222130 2640N 09049W 6566 03693 0059 +094 +038 153003 004 017 000 00
222200 2640N 09047W 6442 03850 0057 +086 +028 185003 003 016 000 00
222230 2641N 09044W 6324 04006 0056 +079 +017 144003 004 015 000 00
222300 2641N 09042W 6223 04136 0060 +066 +021 159004 005 015 000 00
222330 2641N 09040W 6158 04224 0059 +062 +012 165005 005 013 000 00
222400 2642N 09037W 6157 04226 0063 +061 +007 153004 005 013 000 00
222430 2642N 09035W 6157 04225 0060 +061 +016 144004 004 017 000 00
222500 2643N 09032W 6157 04224 0059 +062 +014 116005 006 017 000 03
222530 2643N 09029W 6158 04224 0051 +064 +008 107004 004 016 000 00
222600 2643N 09027W 6157 04224 0057 +063 +014 104006 006 013 000 00
222630 2644N 09024W 6158 04223 0005 +060 +017 083007 011 014 000 00
222700 2644N 09021W 6158 04224 0059 +062 +016 120007 007 016 000 00
222730 2645N 09019W 6157 04224 0060 +062 +014 105007 007 016 000 00
222800 2645N 09016W 6159 04225 0062 +062 +014 089006 006 014 000 00
222830 2646N 09014W 6159 04225 9997 +063 +011 062008 016 016 000 00
222900 2646N 09011W 6159 04224 0058 +064 +011 110006 006 020 000 00
222930 2647N 09009W 6159 04223 0058 +062 +030 118008 008 021 000 00
223000 2647N 09006W 6158 04223 0061 +060 +029 130008 008 020 000 00

[cycloneye]

NRL has it as TD 13.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... atest.html

[South Texas Storms]

Will the recon data be in tonight's 0z models? If so, that could give us a much better idea on track.

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KWBC 012230
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 1/2201Z
B. 26 DEG 25 MIN N
91 DEG 33 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 324 DEG 7 KT
G. 246 DEG 7 NM
H. EXTRAP 1008 MB
I. 26 C/458 M
J. 26 C/460 M
K. 25 C/30 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 01HHA INVEST OB 12 ALHH2011
MAX FL WIND 27 KT NE QUAD 1942Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Dont think upwelling will be much of a problem. Now if it deepens pretty quickly, then yes. Thinking shear and especially dry air getting pulled in to the western and southern sides form Texas could be the biggest hinderance to developing into a hurricane.

[clfenwi]

Well that was always going to happen given the recon obsevations. IMO the NHC track is going to be quite interesting!!

Track forecast will be interesting... HPC discussion implies they (NHC) were leaning towards the GFS solution after day 3. That's a fair bit of northeast movement in five days; but not much. I don't know if there have been any other circle shaped "cones" since Jeanne; this one may be fairly close in shape. We shall see.

[stormhunter7]

oduct: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 22:30Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Mission Purpose: Investigate seventh suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 22:01Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°25'N 91°33'W (26.4167N 91.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 262 miles (422 km) to the SSW (200°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 324° at 7kts (From the NW at ~ 8.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WSW (246°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 460m (1,509ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 30°C (86°F)
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:42Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 1,500 feet

[ckiggins]

Does this look like it will move up into the NE US (NJ/NY/CT/etc) and cause further flooding? If so, are we looking at that being a week or more away from now?

[Airboy]

Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 30°C

[Dave]

Center confirmed at 2202Z, around 26°25'N 91°33'W. Extrapolated SLP: 1008

[ConvergenceZone]

Well that was always going to happen given the recon obsevations. IMO the NHC track is going to be quite interesting!!

Hmm, will we have a spaghetti track?

[BigA]

If the center doesn't relocate, 26.4 N is a long way south of the coast given the slow movement. It won't be moving inland soon. Its rain will and is, though.